Good morning. Our GDP logged a 4.8% growth in the third quarter, Gastat’s final figures showed, with oil recovery masking a slight softening in non-oil expansion. Meanwhile, Riyadh and Doha will be connected by a high-speed rail that — when finished in six years’ time — will cut travel time to just two hours by land.

BUT FIRST- ConsolidatedGrünenfelder Saady Holding (CGS) will begin trading on Tadawul’s main market today, according to a Tadawul statement. The offering’s institutional tranche saw a stellar demand, closing 61.1x oversubscribed, while the retail portion was undersubscribed. The offer price — at SAR 10 per apiece — values the company at around SAR 1 bn at listing and will see selling shareholders raise roughly SAR 300 mn in gross proceeds.

SPEAKING OF NEW LISTINGS- Riyadh-based EFSIM Facilities Management pulled the plug on its planned IPO on Tadawul’s main market, financial advisor EFG Hermes KSA said in a filing to the bourse yesterday. The facilities management provider says it still eyes other expansion paths, including reconsidering the IPO in the future.

Reasons were not specified, but the timing could be a factor: TASI is down 12% YTD, and headed for its worst year since 2015. The rough market conditions this year weighed down on a number of newly-listed stocks, with the majority trading below IPO price. We’ll be watching CGS’ first-day performance closely to see if that trend continues.

WEATHER– Rainy weather is still upon us: Thunderstorms and heavy rain are still expected across the Kingdom with varying intensities, covering Asir, Al Baha, Makkah, Madinah, Tabuk, Hail, Qassim, Jazan, Al Jouf, the Northern Borders, Riyadh, and the Eastern Province. Some areas — among them Makkah and Tabuk — could see dust storms and hail, with flash floods likely in valleys and low-lying terrain.

⚠️PSA- In-person classes are suspended in a number of areas today to avoid the heavy rains, including Madinah, Jeddah, Rabigh and Al Baha.

  • Riyadh: 26°C high / 17°C low,
  • Jeddah: 32°C high / 26°C low
  • Makkah: 31°C high / 25°C low
  • Dammam: 29°C high / 19°C low.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- The Public Investment Fund is helping finance Paramount’s USD 108.4 bn hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros, which it launched a few days after Netflix agreed to acquire some of the company’s assets, according to a regulatory filing. Paramount’s bid aims to acquire all of Warner Bros, while Netflix’s USD 82.7 bn acquisition targets only its Hollywood studios, as well as HBO and the streaming business.

The details: The PIF, Abu Dhabi’s new government-owned firm L’imad, and the Qatar Investment Authority are providing USD 24 bn in financing to make the acquisition work, while US private equity firm RedBird Capital, Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners, and the Ellison family are also providing funds. They will, however, forgo any governance rights like board representation to ensure the bid does not require approval from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US.

How do the offers compare? It’s not completely clear, because Paramount’s bid includes cable networks that WB plans to spin off anyway, though Paramount claims their bid is worth around USD 18 bn more than Netflix’s, and that it’s the clearly superior offer. Both takeovers are expected to face close examination from US and European regulators, with concerns ranging from competition in streaming to the concentration of media power.

  • Analysts said a merger with Paramount could give Warner the scale to rival Netflix and Disney, though the inclusion of CBS and CNN under one owner may spark political and industry debate.

What’s next? COO Andy Gordon reportedly said Paramount’s tender offer will be open for 20 business days and could be extended on an investor call. Warner Bros. has 10 days to respond, he said, whereas the company said it will review Paramount’s offer but has not withdrawn its support for Netflix’s offer.

#2- Saudi’s Regional Voluntary Carbon Market Company (VCM) is “well positioned” to capture carbon credits demand from the global south, acting CEO Fadi Saadeh told Nikkei Asia. Asia’s coal‑heavy energy mix and emerging registries for coal reduction create paths for credits tied to phasing it out, and VCM can leverage existing investments and relationships, like those of Aramco, to become a hub for carbon trading, he added.

The registry has already traded some 10 mn credits, with a quarter sourced from projects in Bangladesh, Malaysia, Pakistan, and Vietnam, Saadeh said. There was also buyer participation from companies in Hong Kong and Singapore.

REMEMBER- VCM signed an MoU with Japan’s Marubeni Corporation to cooperate on carbon-market activities, according to a press release. VCM also brought on Singapore-based Climate Bridge International as an advisory partner to expand carbon-project development in the Kingdom and across the global south.

#3- Samref refinery is getting an upgrade: Aramco, ExxonMobil, and Samref signed a venture framework agreement to assess a major upgrade of the Samref refinery in Yanbu and the potential build-out of an integrated petrochemicals complex, according to a press release. The review will look at capital investments to upgrade and diversify production, shifting toward higher-value distillates with lower associated emissions while tightening overall energy efficiency. The partners have started preliminary front-end engineering and design work.

The refinery is operated by Samref, a 50/50 JV between Aramco and Exxon’s Mobil Yanbu Refining Company. Samref’s refinery is currently capable of processing more than 400k bbl / d of crude, with output spanning propane, automotive diesel, marine heavy fuel oil, and sulfur.

#4- Reports on easing alcohol ban are mounting: Non-Muslim foreign residents earning at least SAR 50k per month can reportedly purchase alcohol from the Kingdom’s sole liquor store in Riyadh, Bloomberg reports, citing sources it says are familiar with the matter. Entry requires a salary certificate, and purchases follow a monthly point-based system. The store, previously limited to diplomats and premium residency holders, is expected to be joined by additional outlets under construction in two other cities.

More stores on the way? There has been chatter that the Kingdom is reportedly preparing to open two new alcohol stores in Jeddah and Dhahran, with one serving diplomats in Jeddah and the other catering to Aramco’s non-Muslim staff in Dhahran.

We still wouldn’t read into it: Saudi maintains a decades-long alcohol ban and has repeatedly downplayed speculation of wider legalization. Authorities also confirmed earlier this year that existing restrictions will remain in place for the 2034 Fifa World Cup.

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DATA POINTS-

The Kingdom’s foreign reserve assets rose around 4.9% m-o-m to SAR 1.74 tn in November, according to preliminary data from Sama. Foreign currency reserves — which accounted for about 94.5% of the Kingdom’s total international assets — rose 5.1% m-o-m to SAR 1.64 tn during the month.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The battle for Warner Bros is dominating the conversation in the global business press. EnterprisePM dove into the potential industry impacts of the Netflix bid here: Part 1 | Part 2.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is threatening to impose a 5% tariff on Mexico if it fails to release more water to the US, accusing the country of violating a 1944 water-sharing treaty that requires Mexico to send 1.75 mn acre-feet of Rio Grande water every five years. (Reuters | Wall Street Journal | New York Times | CNBC)

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