Tadawul sinks back into the red: TASI closed November down 9.1%, finishing the month at roughly 10.6k points. This is a 12% YTD slump, marking the index’s sharpest monthly decline since mid-2022, and its steepest YTD drop in a decade, Capital Markets Analyst at CF Trade Sarah Alyasiri told EnterpriseAM. The benchmark swung between 10.6k and 11.6k over the month before settling near its lows and reversing two months of gains.

Total market cap stood at just under SAR 9 tn by the end of the month, with trading activity softening as 4.18 bn shares changed hands across 8.63 mn transactions worth SAR 86.76 bn. The banking sector took an 8% hit, while energy logged a 5.2% drop and materials went down by 9.2%, according to Asharq Business.

This wipes out October’s rebound: The gauge gained 1.3% in October, its second month of growth in a row, which had lifted TASI to 11.7k points and narrowed its YTD losses to 3.2%. That came after a stellar September, when TASI surged 7.5%, its sharpest gain so far this year on news foreign-ownership limits will be eased.

Why the nosedive? The pullback was driven more by liquidity pressures and cautious positioning than by any deterioration in fundamentals, Alyasiri said. She pointed to softer trading activity, capital being diverted toward IPOs and alternative markets, and a dip in risk appetite as factors that amplified selling pressure, particularly across heavyweight sectors. Global uncertainty, higher funding costs and the lack of near-term catalysts also weighed on sentiment.

Regulatory ambiguity played a role: A sharp reversal in sentiment was triggered by conflicting signals regarding foreign ownership limits, CEO of CI Capital KSA Fahd Al Tarzi told EnterpriseAM. While earlier speculation of a cap increase to 49% had fueled a rally in heavyweight equities, the market reacted negatively to later clarification from the Capital Markets Authority that dates and caps have not been determined yet and a review is not slated until 1Q 2026, which drove an immediate sell-off as speculative positions unwound, according to Al Tarzi.

New White Land taxes may also be involved, Al Tarzi added. The contraction in trading volumes is being driven by capital reallocation in response to the new fees on undeveloped lands, prompting ultra-high-net-worth investors to liquidate equity positions to cover looming tax liabilities. This structural shift has dried up market liquidity, with daily turnover dropping significantly as land owners rushed to raise capital or commence infrastructure development to mitigate the new costs, Al Tarzi told us.

The technical picture: The index is now trading near the 10.5k level, still within a broad sideways range and holding above major support around 10k, a zone reinforced by the 100-month moving average, Alyasiri told us. A break below that would be a bearish signal that could open the door to the 8.5k region, while a sustained move above 11.6k would be needed to restore bullish momentum and set a new directional trend.

Alyasiri adds that the outlook remains conditional rather than negative. Potential drivers of a recovery include improving liquidity, steadier oil prices, clearer global monetary policy signals in 2026, and supportive regulatory moves.

DATA POINT- The most active by value: Al Rajhi Bank topped the market with SAR 5.95 bn traded over the month, followed by Saudi Aramco at SAR 5.19 bn and Saudi National Bank at SAR 3.30 bn.

ICYMI- Equity turnover cooled across both the main and parallel markets in 3Q, with TASI averaging 11.5k points and main-market value traded slipping to SAR 326 bn from SAR 446 bn a year earlier, according to the CMA’s latest quarterly bulletin. Nomu saw similar softness, flattening around 25.47k as total value traded eased to SAR 2.05 bn from SAR 2.98 bn in 3Q 2024.

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