Publicly-listed corporates are poised to tap global debt markets more aggressively as Vision 2030 capex outpaces their strong but insufficient internal resources, according to an S&P Global report. The annual capex of Tadawul-listed companies is projected to reach USD 85-95 bn in the period between 2025-2027 — up from USD 85 bn last year. The credit rating agency expects borrowers, especially state-owned entities, to lean on both Saudi banks and cross-border bond and sukuk markets to plug the ever-growing funding gap.

The macro picture backs it: S&P expects Saudi GDP to average 3.5% during 2025-2028, driven by a recovery in oil output and ongoing diversification efforts. Corporate profitability is expected to hold up, with EBITDA margins remaining resilient despite lower oil prices, slightly higher domestic inflation, and tougher competition in consumer sectors.

BUT- Leverage will rise as companies continue to invest heavily, and it remains to be seen whether earnings growth keeps pace with the buildup of debt. S&P also flags that credit metrics should remain “broadly unchanged,” helped by cost rationalization.

Capex remains dominated by state-linked companies, especially Aramco, but non-oil spending is now a permanent feature of the landscape. Nearly 90% of projected capex will come from companies owned directly or indirectly by state-owned entities, such as the PIF and GOSI. Energy remains the biggest ticket item, but listed Saudi corporates are also plowing money into materials, telecom, and utilities as they deliver on Vision 2030 mandates.

Debt due: Some 30% of aggregate corporate debt comes due within 12 months — similar to the 30-35% seen in 2023-2024. State-owned entities are expected to account for 60-65% of maturities between 2026 and 2029.

Refinancing needs are manageable for now, but meaningful. Listed companies will need to refinance or repay USD 45-55 bn between 2Q 2025 and 2Q 2026, with state-owned entities accounting for most short-term maturities. S&P sees refinancing risk as contained thanks to strong access to banks and capital markets.

Banks will also be shopping for more: Domestic banks will remain critical financiers, but they will need external funding to keep pace with demand. S&P expects banks to issue USD 65-75 bn in new corporate loans annually over 2025-2026, mostly to real estate and utilities. Banks’ net external debt is expected to rise to 6% of total loans by end-2026, up from 1% in 2024, as deposit growth (about 8.5%) will not be fast enough to match loan growth. In higher-growth scenarios where lending accelerates faster, the net external debt ratio could climb toward 8-10%.

DATA POINT- Between 2017 and mid-October 2025, Saudi non-financial corporates issued USD 78.6 bn in FCY debt, including USD 43 bn from Aramco alone. PIF-owned companies (excluding Aramco) accounted for USD 14.8 bn of total issuance since 2017, with state-owned entities and their linked companies representing around 91% of issuance by non-financial corporates.

Private sector on the rise: Private-sector issuance remains small at roughly USD 7 bn, but S&P expects this segment to grow gradually as capital markets deepen and more companies seek long-term, fixed-rate financing for megaprojects and to diversify away from bank lending. A handful of private issuers, mainly Dar Al Arkan, Arabian Centres, and Almarai are expected to keep tapping the USD bond market.

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