The non-oil private sector in Saudi Arabia extended its expansion in October, hitting its fastest level since January and the second-fastest level since September 2014, according to the Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI (pdf). The seasonally adjusted figure rose to 60.2 in October, up from 57.8 in September, yet it remains below January’s 60.5 peak. The acceleration is enhanced by improved operating conditions due to elevated demand and hiring momentum.

New orders inched up for the third month in a row during October, with 48% of the surveyed businesses citing the uptick to an improvement in sales, while only 4% reported a decline. “This improvement was supported by favorable economic conditions, a larger customer base, and higher levels of foreign investment, particularly from GCC and African markets.” Riyad Bank Chief Economist Naif Al Ghaith said.

Output levels saw a sharp increase in October, boosted by new orders’ uptick on the back of rising demand. “The rise in demand encouraged firms to expand production and workforce capacity at the fastest rate since 2009, as businesses expanded capacity to meet new workloads” Al Ghaith noted.

Purchasing activity picked up at the start of 4Q, evidenced by higher workloads and efforts to expand inventories. The growth rate of input stocks reached its highest level in seven months, according to the report. October saw a reduction in lead times, with firms citing “strong vendor relationships,” according to the report.

Job creation accelerated in October to hit its quickest rise in nearly 16 years, further driving the expansion of businesses and output activities. The sharp rise is a reflection of Saudi Arabian companies “expanding their production capacity to meet rising demand,” Argaam Investments’ Head of Specialized Research Ahmed Ramzy told EnterpriseAM.

Input cost pressures heightened in October, lifted by a steep rise in wage costs from salary revisions and bonus payments, in addition to higher costs of imported raw materials. Businesses opted to raise their selling prices at the fastest rate since May 2023.

Business sentiment: Non-oil firms maintained their positive outlook for the year ahead during October, albeit at a lower degree from that recorded in the previous month. Increased demand along with the ongoing projects are cited as key drivers for the overall positive outlook. Yet, some firms fear that competitive pressures may halt future growth prospects.

LOOKING AHEAD- The non-oil sector could achieve an annual growth rate of around 5% in 2026, should the PMI figure remain above 58 points until the end of the year. Ramzy states. “With inflationary pressures expected to emerge in the first half of next year due to rising input costs, the key challenge will be to strike a balance between sustaining growth and preserving price stability as the economy transitions from a government-driven expansion to one led by private-sector dynamics” he adds.

The GCC at large: “The non-oil activity in the Gulf region remained robust, but it is expected that it will not last any longer, particularly for Saudi Arabia”, Capital Economics’ James Swanston wrote in a research note seen by EnterpriseAM. “Weaker oil export receipts will reinforce the need for fiscal consolidation and will more than offset any boost from looser monetary policy, resulting in softer non-oil GDP growth,” he added.

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