Good morning, ladies and gents, and welcome to another very busy day. Earnings season is truly in full swing, with Sabic, Americana Restaurants, Luberef, Almoosa Health, and Saudi German Health — among several others — reporting their earnings.

Leading this morning’s news well: The latest 2024 GDP revisions from Gastat, which says Saudi Arabia’s GDP grew at a 2.7% clip last year. This marks an upwards revision from the 1.3% growth rate reported previously.

AND- Almasar Education has set the price range for its upcoming Tadawul IPO.

^^We have these stories and more in this morning’s news well, below.

WEATHER- Skies remain windy and dusty over Makkah, Madinah and parts of the Eastern region today, while the rest of the Kingdom should expect clear skies.

  • Riyadh: 31°C high / 17°C low
  • Jeddah: 40°C high / 25°C low
  • Makkah: 37°C high / 26°C low
  • Dammam: 31°C high / 19°C low.

PSAs-

Schools in Riyadh switched to the winter schedule yesterday, with the morning assembly set for 6:45am and the first class at 7am, the General Admission in Riyadh said in a statement. The schedule will run until 17 February, 2026, with later start times during Ramadan, before returning to the summer schedule on 29 March, 2026, Saudi Gazette reports.

Riyadh, Tabuk, and Makkah’s residents: brace yourselves for fixed sirens today. The sirens will sound in Riyadh’s Diriyah, Al Kharj, and Al Dilam governorates, Makkah’s Jeddah and Thuwal, and across Tabuk governorates, state news agency SPA reported last month. Warning messages will be broadcast via the new tone at 1pm, the national alert tone at 1:10pm, and fixed sirens in designated areas at 1:15pm. The General Directorate of Civil Defense conducts these sirens to ensure community awareness and the system’s efficiency and readiness to respond.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Saudi’s budget deficit is expected to narrow to SAR 220-215 bn for the year, about SAR 30-25 bn lower than the government’s forecast of SAR 245 bn, fueled by Opec’s decision to increase oil output, Chief Economist at Riyad Bank Naif Alghaith told Asharq (watch, runtime: 05:16). Alghaith attributed the wider deficit in 3Q 2025 to lower oil revenues and the government’s decision to increase spending.

Background: Saudi’s budget deficit widened to SAR 88.5 bn in 3Q 2025, from SAR 34.5 in the second quarter, according to the Finance Ministry’s quarterly budget performance report. The deficit — the highest in five years — was driven by a 13% decline in revenues to SAR 269.9 bn during the quarter, while expenditures increased 6% y-o-y to SAR 358.4 bn.

InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) aims to increase its portfolio in the Kingdom by 50% over the next five years and to 200 hotels — more than double — in the next decade, amidst the rapidly growing tourism sector, IHG CEO Elie Maalouf told Al Arabiya on the sidelines of the Future Investment Initiative (watch, runtime: 2:40). In the 50 years since entering the Saudi market, IHG currently has 46 hotels operating, with 60 more in the pipeline.

DATA POINTS-

Expatriate remittances rose 19.6% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2025 to SAR 125.2 bn, compared to SAR 104.7 bn a year earlier, according to Al Arabiya ’s calculations based on data from Saudi Central Bank. Meanwhile, remittances reached SAR 41.6 bn in 3Q 2025, up 12.3% y-o-y, marking the third consecutive quarter above the SAR 40 bn level. In September alone, remittances climbed 9.2% y-o-y to SAR 13.6 bn.

Budget airline flyadeal led Saudi carriers in September with an 91% on-time arrival rate and the highest on-time departure rate at 93%, the General Authority of Civil Aviation said on X yesterday. National carrier Saudia followed with an 89% on-time arrival rate and 81% on-time departure rate, while flynas recorded an 84% on-time arrival rate and an 85% on-time departure rate during the month.

Wings taken at the terminals: Among international airports handling more than 15 mn passengers per year, King Khalid International Airport led with an 87% on-time departure rate, followed by King Abdulaziz International Airport with an 80% on-time departure rate.

OIL WATCH-

Opec+ has agreed to bump production by another 137k bbl / d next month, then pause hikes throughout 1Q 2026, according to a press release. The group approved the same additional number of barrels for October and November as part of its gradual unwinding of its 1.65 mn bbl / d voluntary cuts. Saudi Arabia’s production share will be at around 10.1 mn bbl / d until March, while the UAE’s will be some 3.41 mn bbl / d. The next meeting is scheduled for 30 November.

The pause in 1Q 2026 will leave the oil cartel with some 1.2 mn barrels a day to restore from its current supply tranche, Bloomberg reports.

The actual output gains have lagged behind official targets, as some member states compensate for past overproduction while others face technical or capacity constraints, the business news information service said. With cooling demand in China and rising supply across the Americas, the market is already tipping into oversupply, Bloomberg added, citing trading firm Trafigura Group.

While US sanctions on Russian oil companies helped stabilize prices after a five-month low, it’s too early to fully assess their broader market implications, according to one Opec+ delegate.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

No single story is dominating today’s headlines, but a few are getting top billing:

Israel threatened to increase its attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying that Israel “shall take whatever action is required” to prevent Hezbollah from opening a new front. Meanwhile, US special envoy Tom Barrack warned that time is running out for Lebanon’s government to enforce the ceasefire deal struck last year, which requires Beirut to disarm Hezbollah, something both Israel and Washington say the group is actively refusing. (Bloomberg | New York Times | Guardian)

ALSO WORTH READING THIS MORNING‑ Top AI labs including Google DeepMind, Anthropic, OpenAI and Microsoft are racing to plug a new security hole in large language models that allows hackers to embed commands in emails or websites and trick the models into spilling confidential data, the Financial Times report.

AND- US envoys are accused of deploying “bully‑boy tactics” to intimidate diplomats from Africa, the Pacific, and the Caribbean into sidelining the UN-backed Net Zero Framework for global shipping, writes the Financial Times.

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