Good morning. The news flow has picked up today, resulting in a packed issue that sets the tone nicely for the rest of the week. The mixed bag of news ranges from oil exports logging their first y-o-y increase after 14 months of downtrend, to SEC inking SAR 12.8 bn in agreements for two new gas-fired plants, to IPO updates from Al Masar and Cherry, as well as a downpour of earnings courtesy of Sabic Agri, Zain KSA, Bank Albilad, and more. Let’s dive in.

WEATHER– Dusty winds are still stirring across parts of Makkah and Madinah, while clouds with potential thunder clouds are expected over Jazan and Asir. The southern areas of the Eastern Province will probably get foggy during the night.

  • Riyadh: 33°C high / 23°C low,
  • Jeddah: 32°C high / 26°C low
  • Makkah: 37°C high / 27°C low
  • Dammam: 33°C high / 24°C low.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Saudi ministers and CEOs were under the spotlight at Fortune Global Forum, which kicked off yesterday and concludes today in Riyadh. The speakers outlined the Kingdom’s growing global footprint and domestic development priorities, setting the tone for FII9 kicking off in a few hours.

Tourism Minister Ahmed Al Khateeb said Saudi Arabia already meets FIFA’s accommodation requirements for the 2034 World Cup, Reuters reports. The Kingdom will continue expanding hotel capacity and enhancing tourism offerings, but will keep the alcohol ban will remain in place, Al Khateeb added.

Al Khateeb emphasized that domestic tourism projects remain the government’s top focus, citing Red Sea Global’s plan to open 17 new hotels by next May. He also noted that no decision has been made on potentially investing in Egypt’s Ras Gamila area, saying it’s not on the Kingdom’s list of priorities at the moment.

ALSO- The PIF’s New Murabba project is eyeing potential investments in technology, real estate, and construction, Reuters quoted CEO Michael Dyke as saying during the forum.

AND- Investment Minister Khalid Al Falih said that 675 multinational companies have now established their regional headquarters in the capital, underscoring the success of the government’s RHQs program, Reuters reports. Al Falih added that Barclays will officially join the roster “in a couple of days,” addressing the bank’s CEO C.S. Venkatakrishnan during the event.

Citigroup is the latest to join the trend, inaugurating its regional headquarters in Riyadh’s Kingdom Center Tower, according to a statement seen by EnterpriseAM. The US bank secured a license from the Saudi Investment Ministry to set up a regional headquarters in Riyadh last November. The HQ will provide its MENA branches with strategic direction and management functions.

This comes just days after Citi’s CEO Jane Fraser was appointed as co-chair of the US-Saudi Business Council’s board, along with Olayan Group’s Lubna Olayan. Fraser is expected to speak at FII9, along with other finance heavyweights like JPMorgan Chase’s CEO Jamie Dimon and Goldman Sachs’s David Solomon.

Global private credit firms are rushing to fill Saudi Arabia’s widening financing gap as bank liquidity tightens under Vision 2030 spending, Bloomberg reported yesterday. The liquidity squeeze — driven by large-scale government spending on infrastructure, tourism, and housing — has constrained banks’ lending capacity, leading to the first decline in medium-term loans in three years.

Who’s circling? Goldman Sachs is partnering with the Public Investment Fund and relocating a senior executive to the region, while Golub Capital, Blue Owl, Saudi Awwal Bank, and Partners for Growth are ramping up their local private credit operations. Major investors like KKR and Apollo are “sniffing around,” but still assessing where the greatest funding prospects lie, Marc Pinto, global head of private credit at Moody’s Ratings, told the business information service.

A window is opening: “The liquidity constraints and capital situation of the domestic banks create a real [window] and it’s something that a lot of international banks are looking at,” Goldman Sachs’ Middle East and North Africa economist Farouk Soussa said.

DATA POINT- Medium-term loans from local banks slipped 5% in 3Q, marking the first quarterly drop since 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Banks are becoming more selective,” with only seven out of 10 applications getting loans, Bloomberg quoted Moody’s Ratings’ vice president and senior credit officer Ashraf Madani as saying. He anticipated this cautious approach to sustain and weigh on loan generation, dragging banks’ loan-to-deposit ratios from 115% this year.

With banks competing for funding, some are even referring transactions they cannot finance to private credit firms, according to David Beckett, head of origination and Middle East business development at SC Lowy. “There’s a lot of talk about how great financing needs are in Saudi Arabia, so I get the sense there are bigger [transactions] coming,” Pinto said.

DATA POINTS-

Saudi Arabia’s total fisheries production reached 246.9k tons in 2024, according to the General Authority for Statistics’s 2024 Fisheries and Aquaculture Statistics report (pdf). Marine fisheries recorded a total catch of 85.3k tons in 2024, up 14.2% y-o-y, while aquaculture production reached 161.6k tons, a 15.5% y-o-y increase. Imports of marine products rose 10.7% y-o-y to 179.9k tons, while exports increased 13.5% y-o-y to 46.6k tons.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

All eyes are on US-Asia ties this morning, as the US and China look closer to agreeing a truce on tariffs that would do away with the US’ 100% tariff on Chinese imports and delay China’s rare earth export controls. US officials say a framework has already been hashed out for US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to ratify when they meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, on Thursday. (Reuters | Bloomberg | Financial Times | Wall Street Journal)

Trump is still covering his bases with agreements with other Southeast Asia partners that will relax trade barriers and expand rare earth elements’ access for the US. The agreements with Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia comes as the US looks to diversify its critical minerals supply chains. (Reuters | Bloomberg)

In M&A news, Swiss pharma firm Novartis is acquiring rare disease drugmaker Avidity for USD 12 bn — its largest acquisition yet. (Bloomberg | WSJ)

AND- The latest on the Louvre heist: French police arrested two suspects they say could be related to the theft of bns worth of jewels from Paris’ Louvre Museum last week. (Guardian | Reuters)

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