Good morning, ladies and gents. The calm before the 3Q earnings storm is still going this morning, with the news well dominated by S&P insights on non-oil growth and fiscal deficits, LSEG data on MENA bond issuances in the first nine months of 2025, and Bloomberg’s forecasts for Saudi banks’ earnings in 3Q.

We’re waiting for Gastat’s inflation figures for September, due out today. Annual inflation slightly accelerated to 2.3% y-o-y in August, up 0.2 percentage points from July and the highest level in two years.

WEATHER- Storm alert: Thunderstorms packing heavy rain, hail, and strong winds are set to drench parts of Jazan today, raising the risk of flash floods. Lighter to moderate showers are also expected across Makkah, Al Baha, Asir, and the southern parts of the Eastern Region, with fog likely forming over these areas and the coastal parts of Madinah. Dust-laden winds will continue sweeping parts of Riyadh, while the southern Red Sea may see rough seas and rain-bearing thunderclouds.

  • Riyadh: 34°C high / 21°C low,
  • Jeddah: 36°C high / 30°C low
  • Makkah: 39°C high / 28°C low.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Salic eyes full control of Olam Agri: PIF-backed Salic may be looking to exercise its option to eat up the remaining 20% of Singapore-based Olam Agri Holdings as it seeks full control of the agribusiness, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The sovereign wealth fund is reportedly planning to start talks for the buyout, which plays into the Kingdom’s food security strategy, as early as next year.

The rationale: A takeover of Olam Agri would align with Saudi Arabia’s food security push to secure global supply chains and localize production, as the kingdom still imports around 80% of its food, the business news service said.

REFRESHER- Salic agreed in February to double its stake in Olam to 80% in a USD 1.8 bn transaction expected to close before year-end pending regulatory approval. The move valued Olam at about USD 4 bn, a 23% premium to the firm’s market capitalization, and granted the PIF-backed company a three-year call option to acquire the remainder.

#2- Former Lionsgate executive and Picturestart’s producer Erik Feig is set to launch a new independent film, TV, and live events company, called Arena SNK Studios, backed by up to USD 1 bn from Saudi entities, the Puck reported yesterday, citing unnamed sources. The funding comes from the Misk Foundation led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Japanese video game maker SNK (owned by Misk), and MBC Group.

More details: The venture will reportedly develop live-action and animated projects based on SNK’s classic game franchises from the 1980s and 1990s, alongside new original content. Feig will lead Arena SNK Studios, alongside a board chaired by Majid Al Ibrahim from MBC. The board will also reportedly include former Disney president Sean Bailey, Epic Games’ Charlie Wen, and Andreessen Horowitz partner Andrew Chen.

ALSO- Saudi throws a hat in the Oscars ring: Hijra will compete at the Oscars for the Best International Feature Film category, state news agency SPA reported on Monday. The 98th Academy Awards is set to take place next March in Los Angeles.

About Hijra: Written and directed by Shahad Ameen, the film follows three Saudi women from different generations — a grandmother and her two granddaughters traveling to Makkah to perform Hajj. The journey soon takes a dramatic turn when the eldest granddaughter, Sarah, disappears. The search mission forces the remaining pair to unveil long-held family secrets while demonstrating the women's generational gap.

#3- The baton is passed for Expo 2030: Saudi Arabia has officially begun preparations for Expo 2030 Riyadh after receiving the Bureau International des Expositions (BIE) host flag from Expo 2025 Osaka yesterday, state news agency SPA reports. The USD 8 bn, six-month event will open on 1 October 2030, drawing an estimated 42 mn visitors and contributing USD 64 bn to the Kingdom’s GDP during development, with an additional USD 5.6 bn while operational.

A high priority: The Kingdom is recalibrating its spending to prioritize time-sensitive international events like Expo 2030, along with the 2029 Asian Winter Games, and the 2034 Fifa World Cup.

We’re getting started: The PIF’s Expo 2030 Riyadh Company (ERC) — established by the PIF last June — is set to award its first of three planned infrastructure contracts for the Expo 2030 venue this December. Technical bids for the main utilities corridor are due 26 October, with commercial bids on 9 November. The ERC appointed Bechtel as project manager to oversee infrastructure works on the 6 sq km site, which will later be repurposed into a permanent global tourist village.

#4- PIF-backed Kayanee plans to expand across the Gulf and launch a wellness app by 2026, Kayanee’s Executive Director Abeer Alfouti told Semafor on Monday. Kayanee’s rollout begins this month in Riyadh, working with local pilates instructors, nutritionists, and small producers to grow the Kingdom’s wellness scene while training Saudi women to make its apparel locally — though designs are still created in Italy.

Wellnes in the skies: Kayanee is also partnering with PIF-owned Riyadh Air to supply amenity kits and loungewear for Business and Premium Economy passengers when the airline launches on 26 October, Riyadh Air said in a press release last week. It will also offer its healthy snacks, such as granola bars and smoothies, on Riyadh Air and at Red Sea resorts as part of its broader wellness network.

About Kayanee: Founded in 2023 by Ambassador to the US Princess Reema bint Bandar, Kayanee’s products — inspired by traditional Najdi styles — include modest activewear and abaya-like outfits designed for exercising comfortably in public.

DATA POINTS-

#1- The Industry and Mineral Resources Ministry issued 144 new licenses in August, with up to SAR 16.3 bn in estimated investments and 2.6k job prospects, the ministry said on X yesterday. Meanwhile, 113 new factories kicked off production with investments of up to SAR 14.2 bn, creating around 8.4k new jobs. The number of existing factories rose 9.3% y-o-y to 12.6k during the month.

#2- Over 128k commercial licenses were issued in 3Q 2025, bringing the total number of registrations to more than 1.7 mn by the end of the quarter, the Commerce Ministry said in its quartely business sector report (pdf).

OIL WATCH-

Global oil supply is set to surge by 3 mn bbl / d in 2025 — up from previous forecasts of 2.7 mn bbl / d — followed by another 2.4 mn bbl / d increase in 2026, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest monthly report. The rise will be driven by higher production from Opec+ members and others outside the group.

Supply is rising faster than demand: The IEA trimmed its forecast for world oil demand growth this year to some 700k bbl / d, 40k bbl / d lower than its previous estimate, citing weaker macroeconomic conditions. Consumption is expected to stay muted through 2025 and 2026, with annual growth averaging around 700k bbl / d.

The IEA is signaling a growing supply glut, with global output in September already up by 5.6 mn bbl / d from a year ago — 3.1 mn bbl / d of which came from Opec+. If current trends hold, global supply is estimated to exceed demand by some 4 mn bbl / d next year, compared to around 3.3 mn bbl / d last month.

That’s not what Opec said: In its monthly oil report, the group kept its global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.3 mn bbl / d for 2025 and 1.4 mn bbl / d for 2026 — almost double the IEA’s — arguing that global supply is expected to match demand next year as the group continues to boost production.

SPORTS-

#1- We’re in the World Cup: Saudi Arabia secured their qualification for next year's World Cup finals in the US, Canada, and Mexico with a no-goal draw against Iraq in Jeddah on Tuesday. The Green Falcons needed only a point, and an injury-time save from goalkeeper Nawaf Al-Aqidi, who kept out Hassan Abdulkareem's curling free kick, ensured their progression.

#2- The ANB Arena will roar to life today until next Saturday, 18 October as the Six Kings Slam brings together tennis heavyweights, including Taylor Fritz, Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Jannik Sinner, and Jack Draper for a three-day clash of speed, power, and precision. Expect big names, high stakes, and plenty of fireworks on court.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Government bonds rallied yesterday as equities took a hit and investors piled into safe haven assets following renewed tensions between the US and China as the latter faces a 100% tariff on its goods after it tightened export controls on rare earth minerals.

The yield on the UK’s benchmark 10-year government bond — gilts — lost 8 basis points, while yields on US 10-year Treasuries fell 3 basis points, and yields on bonds in France, Germany, Italy, Australia, and Japan all edged lower. (CNBC)

Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled he would back another rate cut as preliminary labor market data shows signs of distress, despite the official jobs market data being delayed to the ongoing US government shutdown. (Financial Times)

CLOSER TO HOME- The fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement has already started to face snags, just a day after US President Donald Trump heralded the end of the war during his visit to the region. Israel said it would limit the volume of humanitarian aid going into Gaza to half since Hamas has failed to return the bodies of some of the deceased hostages, as was agreed. Hours later, though, Hamas delivered some of the bodies, but US President Donald Trump is threatening Hamas with retaliation if it does not lay down its arms.

The question of Hamas’ disarmament remains contentious, with Hamas yet to comply as it deploys hundreds of security forces in Gaza and follows through with executions of several people accused of collaborating with Israel. (Reuters | Bloomberg | Guardian)

Trump is also threatening to cut financial aid to Argentina if current president — and Trump ally — Javier Milei loses the upcoming election, threatening a USD 20 bn commitment to the country. (Guardian | Reuters | AP | New York Times)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Construction Technology ConFex KSA (CTF KSA) will take place on 22 October at Crowne Plaza Riyadh RDC Hotel, gathering over 1k industry leaders to address the role of AI, digital twins, BIM, and robotics in advancing the Kingdom’s USD 1.3 tn gigaprojects. It will run alongside the Data Centre Technology ConFex (DCTC), which will feature over 60 exhibitors, 120 speakers, and an awards ceremony recognizing achievements in the construction sector.

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