Some 65 Tadawul-listed firms (Aramco excluded) are projected to post a 6.8% y-o-y growth in net income in 3Q 2025, reaching a cumulative SAR 23.3 bn, according to Aljazira Capital’s Saudi Stock Market Forecasts Report (pdf). The growth is expected to be driven primarily by strong performances in the banking, mining (led by Ma’aden), and petrochemicals sectors.

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Banking to lead the charge: The banking sector is expected to post a 12.3% y-o-y increase in net income to SAR 8.3 bn, underpinned by robust balance sheet expansion and higher fee income. Loan growth among covered banks is projected to reach 15.0% y-o-y, with Alrajhi Bank, as the top performer, forecast to see its net income grow 18.1% y-o-y to SAR 6 bn.

Petrochemicals rebound: The petrochemicals sector is expected to swing back into the black with a net income of about SAR 2.3 bn, after recording losses of SAR 3.6 bn in the previous quarter. The recovery is attributed to improved margins, as the decline in feedstock prices outpaced the fall in product prices.

Mining to sustain momentum: Ma’aden is projected to achieve a significant 137.3% y-o-y rise in net income to SAR 2.3 bn, supported by higher gold and diammonium phosphate prices.

Not all sectors are expected to see growth: The telecom sector is forecast to post a 22% y-o-y decline in earnings, primarily due to the inclusion of SAR 1.8 bn in withholding tax reversals in the same quarter last year. Adjusted for these one-offs, the sector would record a 14.7% y-o-y earnings growth, reaching SAR 4.4 bn.

The cement sector is expected to see a 42.3% y-o-y drop in net income to SAR 328.8 mn amid an ongoing price war — especially in the Central and Eastern regions — which has offset a 13% y-o-y increase in sales volume. The energy sector’s earnings are also expected to fall 27.5% y-o-y, led by an 89.8% drop in Arabian Drilling’s net income due to rig suspensions and discounted day rates on certain offshore rigs.

Mixed fortunes for other sectors: Performance is to remain uneven in the retail, where Almarai, Almajed Oud, Tasheel, BinDawood, Americana, and Leejam are forecast to record higher earnings, while Tanmiah, Almunajem, and Al Othaim are projected to see weaker bottom lines. The healthcare sector is forecast to deliver 10.3% y-o-y net income growth at SAR 1.3 bn, though individual company results could vary depending on their expansion phases. The tourism and transportation sector is projected to post a 7.9% y-o-y increase in combined net income, driven mainly by Seera and Budget Saudi.

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