Saudi Arabia's growing population is seen as a central factor in its economic diversification, presenting a mix of prospects and challenges as officials strive to reduce the Kingdom’s dependence on oil revenues.

By the numbers: The nation’s population reached 35.3 mn in mid-2024, with an annual growth rate of 4.7% compared to 2023, according to recent data (pdf) from the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat). The total number of Saudi citizens has risen to over 19.6 mn in 2024, up from 19.3 mn in the previous year. Meanwhile, the non-Saudi resident population grew to 15.7 mn in 2024, up from 14.5 mn a year earlier.

Sustained growth ahead: The IMF forecasts the Kingdom’s population reaching 36.01 mn this year. The momentum will not stop here, as our population is expected to grow further to 37.4 mn in 2030, 42.6 mn in 2040, and 47.7 mn in 2050, according to data from the World Bank.

How could this boost economic growth? “With a growing population, particularly one that is skewed toward a younger demographic, this will mean that over time the working age population of the Kingdom will grow in size,” Capital Economics’ James Swanston told EnterpriseAM.

The country’s demographics are “incredibly positive,” Knight Frank MENA chief economist Christopher Payne told EnterpriseAM. “Over the long term, from a supply-side perspective, economic growth is a function of the growth of the workforce (directly related to population) and productivity.”

The Kingdom has potential for both workforce growth and productivity gains, Payne noted. “For instance, with 3.0% workforce growth and 1.0% productivity gains per year, sustainable potential annual non-oil GDP growth is 4.0%,” Payne added. However, the challenge will be ensuring that there is demand for this new workforce, so the benefits of population growth are fully utilized, he explained. “This is where Vision 2030 comes in. Gigaprojects, along with other large infrastructure, industrial, and tourism projects, are driven by the need to create and stimulate demand.”

What’s needed to turn these demographics into growth? The short answer is a mix of demand and supply-side policies. “On the demand-side, there are the gigaprojects (and other projects); on the supply-side, we have new visa categories, new homeownership laws for expats, and huge investments in education and training for Saudi nationals,” Payne said. In one of the most significant supply-side policy shifts, the government has changed laws concerning women’s driving and employment, which “have precipitated a doubling of female labour participation since 2017,” Payne noted.

ICYMI- Diversification is set to drive an average annual GDP growth of 3.5% through 2028, even as Vision 2030 investments contribute to fiscal deficits and the global oil market faces uncertainty, S&P Global Ratings recently noted. The rating agency sees the GDP growing 3.7% in 2025, while EFG Hermes holds a more optimistic outlook, anticipating a 4.5% growth this year before it slows to 2.7% in 2026.

Meanwhile, education reforms are not a point to miss: Saudi needs focus on education and job creation as the main policy objectives to convert demographic trends into economic gains, Swanston noted. While the Kingdom spends around 8.0% of its GDP on education each year, international surveys of educational attainment in areas such as maths and sciences show that Saudi Arabia “ranks among the worst in the emerging world, and compared to its Gulf counterparts,” Swanston said, stressing the need to “reform education to improve the quality of the curriculum and also improve the quality of teaching training.”

It is also crucial to improve business conditions to foster a healthy private sector capable of creating new jobs, Swanston highlighted. This means not only supporting companies, but also attracting foreign firms to establish operations and provide employment opportunities in the country.

The road to a sustained population growth: “Sustaining the growth of the Saudi population, right now, is not an issue,” Payne noted. He instead focused on the expat workforce, which is needed to build the infrastructure associated with Vision 2030. “I think the Kingdom is making strides to make it easier for workers to come to the Kingdom. Measures such as the premier visa help attract senior expats to the Kingdom, providing more long-term stability. Recent changes to homeownership laws (relating to non-Saudis) are also really important, as they enable expats to be more invested in the long-term success of the Kingdom.”

BACKGROUND- To attract global talent, the government introduced in July a new classification system for expatriate work permits to attract global talent. Additionally, a new foreign property ownership law has recently been published, allowing non-Saudi individuals and institutions to own properties and hold real estate rights in the Kingdom — effective early next year.

However, the future growth of the non-Saudi population could be impacted by the government's “Saudization” policies in the labor market, given that the need for non-Saudis to reside in the Kingdom is conditional on employment, according to Swanston.

The challenges of demographic expansion: “If Saudi’s labor market is unable to keep pace with demographic expansion, this could lead to increases in unemployment and potentially the need for greater fiscal outlay for the welfare state,” Swanston said. This would be in addition to the need to expand other infrastructure, such as water and sanitation, hospitals, police services, and roads, to accommodate a larger population.

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