Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and a very happy almost-THURSDAY to you all. We’re approaching the end of summer as schools are set to begin their first semester of the year on Sunday, and the news cycle is picking up steam in tandem. We lead our newswell this morning with the latest forecasts from our friends at EFG Hermes, who expect to see Saudi Arabia’s GDP growing at a 4.5% clip this year — a more bullish projection than most.

Also on deck today: Aramco is reportedly looking to acquire a stake in an Indian refinery, Hamad Mohammed Bin Saedan issued its prospectus for a Nomu IPO, and First Mills signed a final agreement for its acquisition of Manar Feed.

WEATHER- Thunderstorms will continue to hit the Kingdom today with Riyadh expected to see a high of 45°C and a low of 36°C today, while Jeddah’s mercury will go as high as 40°C and as low as 32°C. Makkah will see a 40°C high and 35°C low.

PSAs-

Infrastructure works in residential areas can now be carried out from 7am to 6pm, Sunday through Thursday, and from 7am to 1pm on weekends, after new working hours for these works came into effect on 7 August, Riyadh Infrastructure Project Center said on X on Monday. The new working hours are part of the Infrastructure Projects Code announced in July. Infrastructure works — including telecommunications, energy, water, sewage, and roads — outside these hours requires an emergency permit.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Aramco reportedly eyeing 20% stake in BPCL’s refinery: Aramco is in talks to acquire a 20% stake in Indian Bharat Petroleum Corporation’s (BPCL) planned refinery-cum-petrochemical complex (RcPC) at Ramayapatnam, The Hindu reports, citing government sources. Negotiations between the governments of India and Saudi Arabia are reportedly focused on finalizing terms and conditions, with an agreement expected by year-end.

BPCL is also in talks with Aramco for a long-term crude oil supply agreement for the RcPC, which is designed to help meet India’s rising energy demand. The Indian government has allocated 6k acres for the project, which will have a refining capacity of 9 mn metric tons per annum (mmtpa) and is estimated to cost nearly INR 1 tn (c.USD 12 bn). Plans to expand the refinery's capacity to 12 mmtpa are also on the table. Commissioning is expected to take at least four years after securing regulatory approvals.

BPCL has earmarked INR 61 bn (c. USD 730 mn) for pre-project activities, including feasibility studies, land acquisition, environmental impact assessments, and engineering design. The government had initially offered three sites — Machilipatnam, Ramayapatnam, and Mulapeta in Srikakulam — with BPCL selecting Ramayapatnam for logistics and multimodal connectivity advantages.

CABINET WATCH-

Cabinet agreed yesterday to a one-year extension on a royal decree that requires labor lawsuits to go through an amicable settlement process before reaching a court, state news agency SPA reports. The Council of Ministers also approved amendments to the rules governing the structure of the Saudi Bar Association during their meeting.

The cabinet also approved a string of agreements, including:

  • An MoU with Singapore to establish a Strategic Partnership Council;
  • An MoU with Singapore’s Industry and Trade Ministry to cooperate in the logistics sector;
  • An MoU with Malaysia on cooperation in social development;
  • An MoU with Cambodia’s Commerce Ministry to develop trade relations;
  • An MoU with Tajikistan's Export Agency to develop non-oil exports;
  • An MoU with the Korean Aerospace and Aeronautics Administration on cooperation in the peaceful use of outer space;
  • A joint customs agreement with Morocco to mutually recognize their Authorized Economic Operator Programs;
  • An MoU with Morocco on cooperation in environmental protection.

DATA POINTS-

#1- The Saudi Export-Import Bank (Saudi Exim) provided SAR 23.6 bn in credit facilities over the first half of the year, rising 44% y-o-y, it said on X. This total consisted of SAR 8.9 bn for export financing, up 26.2%, and SAR 14.7 bn in export credit ins., up 58.8%.

#2- Saudis under the age of 35 made up 69.4% of the total Saudi population in 2024, the General Authority for Statistics said on X yesterday. The 15-34 age group accounted for 35.9% of the population, with a gender split of 50.3% male and 49.7% female. Including both Saudis and non-Saudis, individuals under 35 made up 61.4% of the Kingdom’s total population as of last year.

OIL WATCH-

Chinese refiners are favoring Russian crude over Middle Eastern grades, signaling a reshuffle in global flows, Bloomberg reports, citing London-based market intelligence firm Energy Aspects. Russia’s Urals remains “the most competitive” compared to similar grades from the Middle East, thanks to discounts and steady supply availability, the consultancy said.

ICYMI- Saudi Arabia is expected to export less crude oil to China in September, compared to August volumes that reached a more than two-year high. Aramco is projected to ship about 43 mn barrels to China next month — equivalent to 1.43 mn bbl / d, down from 1.65 mn bbl / d in August.

Russian imports already account for 17% of China’s overseas crude purchases, close to the 20% ceiling the consultancy sees for any single supplier.

The Brent-Dubai exchange of futures for swaps (EFS) has narrowed further amid US pressure on Indian imports of Russian oil, Bloomberg reports. Brent’s premium over Dubai crude fell to just USD 0.6 / bbl from USD 3.9 in late June, according to PVM Oil Associates data. The shift reflects growing expectations that Indian refiners will pivot away from Russian Urals crude in favor of medium-density grades from the Middle East under US pressure.

The US push, including tariffs threats, has already impacted October-loading cargoes. Indian state refiners pulled back from Russian oil and are now sourcing from Abu Dhabi, Libya, Nigeria, and the US. The shift also opened an arbitrage window for Atlantic Basin crudes — typically priced against Brent and WTI — to flow into Asia, reshaping regional trade flows, Bloomberg adds.

SPORTS-

#1- Al Nassr reached an agreement to sign French winger Kingsley Coman from Bayern Munich for an all-in transfer fee of EU 35 mn, Sky Germany’s Florian Plettenberg said on X on Monday. The 29-year-old is set to sign a contract until 2028, with an annual salary of EUR 20-25 mn.

#2- Week five of the Esports World Cup wrapped up with Team Liquid in the lead with 4.2k points, followed by Team Falcons with 3.7k and Team Vitality with 3.15k, according to a post on X.

Team Liquid became the first club to land three titles in a single Esports World Cup after Dutchman Manuel Bachoore (Team Liquid) took home the EA Sports FC Championship by beating France’s Brice Masson of Team Vitality 5-3 in the final, state news agency SPA reported on Monday. Team Liquid also snagged third place after Levi de Weerd defeated Brazil’s Gui Barros (RBLZ Gaming) with a score of 4-1.

Our own Twisted Minds clinched their first Call of Duty: Warzone title after defeating Virtus.pro. in the final match. Team Secret claimed their first-ever Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege title, defeating G2 Esports 3-0.

AND- Game designer Hideo Kojima will be participating in the New Global Sports Conference, which runs between 23-24 August, to share insights on the development of his most recent game — Death Stranding 2: On the Beach.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

There’s no single story capturing the attention of the international business press, but there are a handful of business stories to sink your teeth into.

US stocks hit a record high after inflation data fueled market expectations that the Federal Reserve will move ahead with interest rate cuts when it meets again next month. US inflation remained steady at 2.7% in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, coming in just shy of economists’ expectations of 2.8%. The inflation data pushed futures market to price in a 94% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps in September, rising nine percentage points compared to before the inflation data was released. The S&P 500 closed up 1.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.4% at the close of trading. (Bloomberg | Financial Times)

AI startup Perplexity made an unsolicited USD 34.5 bn offer to acquire Google’s Chrome browser, in a bid that would see the startup pay more than its own valuation. The offer comes ahead of an expected antitrust ruling later this month that could require Google to sell its web browser. Perplexity spokespeople have said that the company has secured financial backing from “several investors, including large venture capital funds” to fully finance the transaction if it were to go through. The story is getting play in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, and Bloomberg.

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