The Kingdom’s efforts to diversify its economy away from oil are yet again on the minds of the foreign press, with Bloomberg arguing that despite significant social and economic reforms under Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia’s economy remains dependent on oil revenue and, by some measures, its reliance has even deepened.

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The business news service estimates that the fiscal breakeven oil price has risen to USD 96 a barrel in 2025, from USD 91 in 2016. The figure rised to USD 113 a barrel when PIF spending is factored in. With oil still constituting 60% of state revenue and over 65% of exports, this has spurred increased government borrowing to sustain the diversification agenda and mitigate the increasing fiscal deficit, which has run for the past eight quarters.

Still, diversification was fruitful in mant aspects. The non-oil economy now exceeds half of the Kingdom’s GDP and non-oil revenues reached USD 134 bn in 2024, compared to USD 50 bn in 2016. The Kingdom has also witnessed a boom in tourism, mns more women joining the workforce, and growth in new industries.

Turbulence can be a sign of economic transformation: “Recent spending increases reflect capex for Vision 2030 projects in their early stages — a temporary phase, not a long-term trend,” a Finance Ministry spokesperson told Bloomberg, adding that “as these transformative initiatives reach full operational capacity, they will generate returns and contribute to the fiscal position and the economy.”

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