Good morning. The non-oil sector seems to be picking up the summer heat, with PMI figures for June reaching a three-month high. The private sector also scored big over the weekend after Saudi and Indonesian companies inked a whopping USD 27 bn in agreements and MoUs during a high-profile visit to Riyadh.

BUT FIRST- Opec+ strikes again: The oil group agreed yesterday to raise production by 548k barrels per day in August, accelerating its plan to return supply to the market and exceeding analyst expectations, according to a statement from the group. The August hike is larger than previous monthly increments of 411k bbl / d for May, June and July.

The rationale: The group cited a steady global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals, including low oil inventories.

Getting closer to the finish line: With the August increase, Opec+ will have restored over 1.9 mn bbl / d, out of a total of 2.2 mn bbl / d in voluntary cuts, according to Reuters calculations. This is in addition to a separate 300k bbl / d increase granted to the UAE. The adjustments are separate from other production cuts amounting to about 3.7 mn bbl / d that remain in place.

Opec+ will meet on 3 August to decide on production levels for September, noting that the return of supply could be paused or reversed depending on market conditions.

We took a deep dive on Opec+’s output increase and what it means for us.

ALSO- Opec’s oil output rose by 270k bbl / d in June to a total of 27 mn bbl / d, according to a Reuters survey. The increase was driven by production hikes in Saudi Arabia (200k bbl / d) and the UAE (100k bbl / d) as part of a broader agreement of Opec+ — which includes Opec members and other allies like Russia. The overall rise was limited by Iraq, which cut production to compensate for previous overages.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Acwa Power’s rights issue trading and subscription for new shares will kick off today, the renewables giant said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The trading will end on 13 July, while the subscription period for new shares ends on 16 July.

IN CONTEXT- Acwa is out with the final prospectus (pdf) for its capital increase through an SAR 7.1 bn rightsissue, after it got the green light from shareholders last week, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The move — part of the company’s strategy to triple its AUM by 2030 and bolster its capital base — will increase its capital by 4.63% to SAR 7.67 bn across 766.5 mn shares.

The details: The company will offer 33.9 mn new ordinary shares at a price of SAR 210 per share. Shareholders will have the right to subscribe to 0.0463 shares per each owned share, while any unsubscribed shares will be sold to institutional investors in a rump offering.

ADVISORS- SNB Capital is the lead manager on the transaction, while also acting as a financial advisor along with JP Morgan and Citigroup. The three banks are joined by Saudi Fransi Capital, FAB Capital, Emirates NBD Capital, and Natixis Saudi Investment as joint underwriters.

WEATHER- Riyadh is expected to see a high of 42°C and a low of 30°C, while Jeddah’s mercury will go as high as 40°C and as low as 29°C. Makkah will see a 41°C high and 33°C low.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

The 2025 Esports World Cup kicks off tomorrow in Riyadh, running through 24 August. The tournament is bringing over 2k professional players and 200 clubs from more than 100 countries to compete across 25 tournaments for a record-breaking USD 70 mn prize pool. This year’s lineup includes top games, such as League of Legends, Dota 2, PUBG, Fortnite, Call of Duty, Valorant, and Tekken 8.

PSAs-

Riyadh Metro began operating on a new schedule on Fridays, starting the first service at 8am, the Riyadh Public Transport said on X. Schedules for the rest of the week remain unchanged, with the first service starting normally at 6am.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Aramco is mulling the sale of up to five of its gas-fired power plants in an effort to raise funds, potentially generating some USD 4 bn, Reuters reported on Friday, citing sources it said are in the know. While the timeline remains undetermined, local utility firms could be potential buyers, the sources said.

The power plants in question are part of a significant portfolio, as Aramco currently has full or partial ownership of 18 power facilities, with more — such as the Tanajib Gas Plant project — set to begin operations this year.

The prospective sale is part of a broader strategy by the oil giant to free up capital, boost net income, cut costs, and support dividend payments to the Kingdom. This divestment strategy may extend to other non-core assets, including housing compounds, pipelines, and port infrastructure, the sources said.

IN CONTEXT- The move comes as the government — which holds an 81.5% stake in Aramco — seeks to finance major diversification projects, as it faces budget deficit that widened to SAR 58.7 bn in the first quarter, and could reach 6% of GDP this year on the back of falling oil prices.

ALSO- BlackRock is reportedly in talks to sell its stake in Aramco’s natural gas pipeline network back to the state-owned oil company, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. The US investment firm, as part of a consortium, bought a 49% stake in Aramco’s pipelines’ leasing asset back in 2021 for USD 15.5 bn.

#2- Two fintechs mull IPO: Al Rajhi Bank-owned small loans and credit cards provider EmkanFinance and retail and corporate financing provider Tamweel Aloula are making ready for IPO, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing sources it says are in the know. Emkan has reportedly tapped Morgan Stanley and Al Rajhi Capital as advisors, the sources added.

Fintechs have been doing well: Newly listed fintechs delivered strong gains on Tadawul, with United International Holding’s share price up more than 18% since listing late last year, while Rasan is trading up 132% since its debut in June 2024.

#3- Riyad Bank intends to issue USD-denominated tier 2 trust certificates, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The value of the offer, including amount and terms, will be determined by market conditions. The issuance aims to raise funds from local and international eligible investors for “general banking purposes.”

ADVISORS: The bank has tapped Standard Chartered, HSBC, Merrill Lynch International, JP Morgan Securities, SMBC Group, Mizuho International, DBS Bank, and Riyad Capital as joint lead managers.

#4- The second round of negotiations over a GCC-Japan free trade agreement wrapped up in Tokyo last Friday, state news agency SPA reports. The round saw the discussion extend to barriers to trade, financial services, migratory issues, intellectual property, rules of origin, and dispute settlement, with a final agreement expected to be reached in future rounds.

IN CONTEXT- Negotiations on a GCC-Japan FTA were first held between 2006 and 2009, before resuming last December after the parties involved agreed on the terms of reference in October.

DATA POINTS-

E-commerce sales in the Kingdom via Mada cards rose 56% y-o-y to a record SAR 69.3 bn in 1Q 2025, with the number of transactions surpassing 370 mn during the quarter, according to the Saudi Central Bank’s May bulletin (pdf). Sales reached SAR 27.4 bn in May alone, marking an 17.7% increase from April’s SAR 23.3 bn, with over 147 mn transactions.

SPORTS-

Goodbye, Club World Cup: Al Hilal lost 2-1 to Fluminense last Friday, after the Brazilian side scored in the first and second halves of the Club World Cup quarter-final. Al Hilal dominated the statistics board with 58% possession and 15 attempts at goal (4 on target), but could not translate the difference to the scoring board.

What is next? The team led by Italian coach Simone Inzaghi is scheduled to face Al Qadsiah for the Saudi Super Cup semifinals at the Hong Kong Stadium on 20 August at 3pm.

British boxer Tyson Fury may come out of retirement to participate in the Riyadh Season next year, General Entertainment Authority Chairman Turki Alalshik said on X, adding that the opposite corner remains to be filled. Fury hinted that he would like to face Oleksandr Usyk once again, or Anthony Joshua, Reuters reported.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Trump’s Gaza ceasefire push sees mixed responses: US President Donald Trump said on Friday there “could be a Gaza deal next week” after Hamas responded in a “positive spirit” to his administration’s proposal for a 60-day ceasefire. The plan, which Trump labelled a “final proposal,” sees Hamas releasing half of the roughly 50 hostages it still holds and entering talks to end the war. Trump told reporters that he remains “very optimistic” but had yet to be briefed on the specifics.

Israel says Hamas changes are ‘unacceptable’ but will resume talks: While Hamas said it was ready to immediately enter a new round of negotiations on the US-brokered ceasefire, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said the changes Hamas requested were “unacceptable.” Still, Israel will send a delegation to Qatar today to continue negotiations, aiming to secure the hostages’ release. Netanyahu is also expected to meet Trump in Washington on Monday, where the ceasefire agreement will top the agenda.

Bloodshed continues as talks loom: Over the weekend, Israeli airstrikes killed at least 138 Palestinians, including 15 people in an overnight attack on a tent encampment near Khan Younis, according to local health officials. (Reuters | Bloomberg | The Guardian | FT)

AND- Musk launches ‘America Party:’ Former Trump adviser Elon Musk announced the formation of the America Party on Saturday, saying it will “give you back your freedom” after an X poll showed strong support for a new US political party. (Reuters | The Guardian | Axios | New York Times)

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