Oil exports dip to 4-year low in April: The Kingdom’s oil exports dropped 21.2% y-o-y to SAR 61.96 bn in April, its lowest level since June 2021, according to preliminary data from the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat) (pdf). Oil’s share of total exports also dropped by 8.9 percentage points y-o-y to 68.6%.

The drivers: April saw the markets receive a double hit, between Trump announcing sweeping tariffs and Saudi Arabia leading a sharp acceleration in Opec+ output hikes, according to Bloomberg analysts. The oil group announced a long-delayed plan to gradually return 2.2 mn bbl / d of oil to the market over 18 months in April.

Higher pressures: Lower oil prices — around the USD 65/bbl level — increase the risk of widening budget deficits and higher public debt levels, Mohamed Abu Basha, head of macro analysis at EFG Hermes, told Bloomberg. “Such pressures are manageable in the short-term, considering the kingdom’s strong balance sheet and access to credit. Low oil price for longer would most likely require a combination of a revisit to spending plans and implementation of fiscal consolidation measures,” Abu Basha added.

Proceeding with caution: The drop in oil revenues — coupled with global uncertainty — will see the Kingdom “take stock” of its spending priorities as it moves forward with capital-intensive Vision 2030 development projects, Finance Minister Mohammed Al Jadaan told Financial Times earlier in May.

THE NON-OIL SITUATION-

Non-oil merchandise exports rose 6.8% y-o-y to some SAR 17.7 bn in April 2025. Total non-oil exports — including re-exports — surged 24.6% y-o-y, bolstered by a 72% increase in re-exports value, despite a 10.9% decrease in merchandise exports during the same period. Meanwhile, imports grew 18.3% to about SAR 76.1 bn, and the surplus of the merchandise trade balance abated 61.7%.

Non-oil exports remained higher than imports, with the ratio rising to 37.2% in April, compared to 35.4% in the same month a year ago.

Plastics, rubbers, and their derivatives, making up 21.7% of non-oil exports, logged a 4% y-o-y increase. Chemical products, which comprised 21% of non-oil exports, inched up 2.3% y-o-y.

Machinery, electrical equipment, and parts were the most sought after by importers, increasing 25.4% y-o-y to nearly SAR 21.1 bn, and accounting for 27.7% of total imports. Transportation equipment and parts followed recorded a 64.5% y-o-y increase to around SAR 13.1 bn, with a 17.2% share.

China still tops the trade list: The Kingdom’s merchandise exports to China made up 12.6% of our total exports in April 2025, followed by Japan (10.1%) and the UAE (9.8%). Meanwhile, Chinese goods accounted for 25% of total imports over the same period, followed by the US (7.5%) and the UAE (6.8%).

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