Gastat recalculates 1Q GDP growth: The Kingdom’s GDP growth during 1Q 2025 was revised upwards to 3.4% y-o-y from the 2.7% figure reported back in May, according to new data (pdf) from the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat). On a quarterly basis, the economy saw growth of 1.1%, up from the 0.9% rise initially estimated.

Oil activity declined at a slower rate: Estimates for the decline in oil activities were revised to a 0.5% y-o-y decrease, an improvement from the previously estimated 1.4% drop, with the Kingdom’s voluntary output cuts under the Opec+ agreement remaining the main driver of the decline. Oil activity also decreased by 1.2% on a quarterly basis.

Meanwhile, non-oil activity saw a 4.9% increase on an annual basis, revised up from 4.2%, contributing the bulk of the Kingdom’s headline expansion of 2.8 percentage points. Meanwhile, government activities remained unchanged at a 3.2% y-o-y grwoth.

The fastest growing sectors were wholesale & retail trade and restaurants and hotels at 8.4%, followed by transport, storage, and communication (6.0%), and finance, ins., and banking services (5.5%).

REMEMBER- Gastat has recently updated its nominal and real GDP historical data over 2011-2024 as part of a revision project that looks to better capture the economic transformation taking place in the Kingdom with more detailed insights over the performance of key sectors in the economy.

What changed? Gastat launched the revision project at the beginning of 2024, using updated survey data and new sources. The authority also said it adopted a chain-linking method in line with global standards to provide more accurate real GDP growth estimates.

ICYMI- In April, The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points to 3% this year and by 0.4 percentage points to 3.7% in 2026, compared to its January estimates. The downward revisions reflect ongoing uncertainty around oil production levels and the pace of non-oil sector expansion.

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