Saudi Arabia upended its oil strategy this year, leading Opec+ to a sharp acceleration of output hikes since April. The new strategy seems to be aimed at regaining market share and getting Opec+ overproducers back in line, all taking place in increasingly uncertain times.

IN CONTEXT- In early April, Opec+ announced a long-delayed plan to gradually return 2.2 mnbbl / d of oil to the market over 18 months, and then proceeded to accelerate these output hikes at triple the initially expected rate, with that last hike agreed on the group’s meeting last Saturday.

THE RATIONALE-

Saudi Arabia had been the stabilizing force behind Opec+ production cuts for the past five years, balancing the market by voluntarily curbing its own output by up to 2 mn bbl / d. These efforts — including the extra 2.2 mn bbl / d of voluntary cuts between 2023 and 2024 — propped up oil prices and increased revenues of oil exporters.

Sign of the times: Ongoing production boosts could mark Saudi Arabia’s recognition that it can no longer drive prices higher, analysts told the Financial Times. Indeed, Saudi Arabia appeared to be “calling time” on its price-support efforts as it shifted focus to volume and market share.

Punishing violators: The Saudi-led push could be aimed at penalizing members who benefited from higher prices while not adhering to their production limits. Other Opec+ members like Iraq and Kazakhstan were habitually pumping above their quotas, with Kazakhstan’s energy minister stating that he would prioritize national interest over Opec+ quotas, after Kazakhstan’s April output exceeded its target despite a 3% cut pledge. Iraq, Opec’s second-largest producer, has also routinely pumped above its quota.

The production increase is as much about challenging US shale supply. For the past few years, US shale drillers had been steadily capturing market share as the oil group restrained its own production, with American oil output hitting record highs above 13 mn bbl / d early this year.

Expanding output now could help the Kingdom reclaim market share from US producers, which need oil prices averaging around USD 65 per barrel to remain profitable. Sustained prices in the USD 50-60 range could dampen the drive for new projects.

Saudi Arabia is reviving a tactic from past oil price wars, undercutting higher-cost producers by driving prices down to a level where only the lowest-cost producers can thrive. Analysts estimate that Saudi production costs USD 3-5 per barrel, according to Reuters.

Trump’s influence? US President Donald Trump has recurrently pressed Saudi Arabia and Opec+ to pump more oil to tame high gasoline prices and inflation at home. Riyadh’s move could be — at least in part — an effort to curry favor with Washington at a relatively low cost, scoring points with its key ally by aiding the White House’s goal of pushing oil below USD 60 a barrel, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

THE OIL OUTLOOK-

If Opec+ sustains its accelerated production hikes, the Kingdom’s voluntary cuts could end by October, bringing its quota to 9.98 mn barrels a day (bbl / d). However, crude export volumes could remain below 1Q levels as domestic demand rises during the summer season.

The hikes are heavily weighing down oil prices: Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to average USD 63 a barrel for the remainder of 2025, before dropping further to USD 58 in 2026, with JP Morgan showing similar forecasts for prices potentially sinking to the “high USD 50s” later this year.

Production hikes are not the only problem: The Trump administration’s tariffs — combined with unwinding the cuts — is creating a sell signal to traders, ClearView Energy Partners’ cofounder Kevin Book told the Financial Times. This toxic mix of weaker demand outlook and extra supply created a decidedly “bearish” mood in the energy markets, according to the International Energy Agency’s April 2025 Oil Market Report.

BUT- Announced production hikes may not reflect actual production levels: April saw a 23k bbl / d increase from the Group of Eight instead of the announced 138k bbl / d hike, while headline Opec+ actual production fell by 106k bbl / d, according to Mees.

AND- Despite the expected plunge in oil prices following the decision, markets might react positively since there was anticipation of larger hikes, UBS Group AG commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo told Bloomberg.

IS SAUDI READY FOR LOWER OIL PRICES?

Lower prices coil spell trouble for oil exporters: Few Opec+ producers can balance their budgets at the project levels at USD 60 per barrel. Saudi Arabia reportedly needs roughly USD 92 a barrel to balance its fiscal accounts this year, per IMF projections in April. Analysts are expecting our deficit to exceed 5% this year, with some projections going as high as 6%.

It’s already starting: The Kingdom’s oil revenues fell 9% y-o-y to USD 54.7 bn in 1Q 2025 — the worst 1Q performance since the Covid pandemic crisis in 2021 — despite seeing a slight increase compared to the previous two quarters, according to Mees analysts.

Oil revenues are expected to fall further in 2Q, as Arab Light crude slumped to USD 70.9 a barrel in April from USD 76.1 in March and is expected to average less than USD 65 a barrel for May. However, oil prices seem to have stabilized through May as the US and China stepped back from an all-out trade war.

Lower revenues could be problem: Funding for the Kingdom’s capital-intensive gigaprojects is mostly top-down, which supports the big players, but the SME sector — which is huge and very influential in the non-oil sector in Saudi — is very important, EFG Hermes’ Head of Research Ahmed Shams El Din told us back in March. “That means that you can expect substantial delays with some projects. There will be a second round of recalibration and reprioritization.”

The Kingdom says it’s ready, lining up multiple strategies including “long-term fiscal planning and medium-term frameworks” to adapt to different scenarios for oil prices, Economy and Planning Minister Faisal Al Ibrahim said earlier this month.

Saudi will also use the current drop in oil revenues and global uncertainty to “take stock” of its spending priorities, Finance Minister Mohammed Al Jadaan said on Thursday. The minister confirmed earlier reports that some gigaprojects are undergoing extensive reviews to optimize spending.

Al Jadaan also emphasized that government spending will continue to support non-oil growth, even if the budget deficit exceeds expectations. “There will possibly be more deficit than we anticipated in the budget, but not significant.”

Aramco chief remains optimistic: Opec+ production hikes could generate an extra USD 1.9 bn in annual cashflow for Aramco at USD 60 per barrel, CEO Amin Nasser said earlier this month. Aramco can boost crude oil production to 12 mn bbl / d at minimal extra cost, with each 1 mn bbl / d of spare capacity potentially generating USD 12 bn in operating cashflows at 2024 prices, Nasser added.

Demand growth could also do us some favors: Some analysts believe that Saudi Arabia’s plan to increase supply is logical, since US drivers will soon take to the roads for summer vacations, and the use of air conditioning will peak at home and in the region, meaning demand will rise over the next few months. A Reuters poll expects global oil demand to grow by some 775k bbl / d in 2025 on the back of higher oil demand during the summer — 35k above the figure posted by the International Energy Agency.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Disagreements could start emerging within Opec+: The Kingdom’s latest decision to accelerate hikes reportedly met some resistance from Russia, Algeria, and Oman, all of which suggested suspending oil output increments, Bloomberg reports, citing unnamed delegates.

The largest offender, Kazakhstan, reiterated its rejection to the Saudi plan, with its Energy Minister saying last Thursday that the country has “no plans to atone” and cannot cut its oil production.

With the cartel set to meet again on 6 July to decide on August outputs, it remains to be seen whether these differences could have an impact on the accelerated pace of output hikes.

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