Saudi Arabia’s economy expanded 2.7% y-o-y in 1Q 2025, driven by a 4.2% increase in non-oil activities and a 3.2% rise in government services, according to flash estimates (pdf) from the General Authority of Statistics (Gastat). Oil activities declined 1.4% in 1Q 2025 as the Kingdom continued to implement voluntary output cuts under Opec+ agreement.

On a quarterly basis: The Kingdom’s seasonally adjusted real GDP rose 0.9% q-o-q in 1Q 2025, largely driven by a 4.9% q-o-q jump in government activities and a 1.0% increase in non-oil activities. Oil activities fell by 1.2% compared to 4Q 2024, softening the overall momentum.

Looking ahead: The Finance Ministry is targeting GDP growth of 4.6% for FY 2025, backed by non-oil activities and private sector participation.

ICYMI- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points to 3% this year and by 0.4 percentage points to 3.7% in 2026, compared to its January estimates. The downward revisions reflect ongoing uncertainty around oil production levels and the pace of non-oil sector expansion.

GASTAT REVISES 2023 GDP-

Saudi Arabia’s 2023 GDP was 14.1% higher than earlier estimates, which puts the economy’s size at SAR 4.5 tn, up from SAR 3.94 tn, according to revised figures from Gastat under its comprehensive GDP update project.

By the numbers: The update shows that the non-oil sector now makes up 53.2% of GDP, a 5.7 percentage point increase from previous estimates, reflecting faster growth in construction, retail, transport, and services, as well as stronger contributions from small- and medium-sized enterprises, the authority said.

The sector breakdown: Construction saw the biggest upward revision, with activity rising 61%, followed by a 29.8% upward revision in wholesale, retail hospitality and restaurants, and a 25.6% boost in transport and communications. The revised numbers also show higher government and household spending than previously reported.

What changed? Gastat launched the revision project at the beginning of 2024, using updated survey data and new sources, including the comprehensive economic survey, the household income and expenditure survey, and the comprehensive agricultural survey. The authority also adopted a chain-linking method in line with global standards to provide more accurate real GDP growth estimates. This resulted in the number of tracked economic activities rising to 134, up from 85.

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