Phase two of Vision 2030 officially wrapped up, as the Kingdom moves into the third and final phase of its transformation journey, according to the 2024 Vision 2030 Annual Report (pdf). The report highlights Vision 2030’s accelerated progress, as 93% of its strategic KPIs have been achieved, exceeded, or are close to meeting interim targets, with 85% of the 1.5k initiatives either completed or on track.

SO CLOSE-

GDP is shy of the mark: Our 2024 GDP came in at USD 936.8 bn, up from USD 812.7 bn in 2016, on the back of a strong 4.3% increase in non-oil activities and 1.3% overall growth rate. However, the mark fell a little short of its 2024 target of USD 955.8 bn. The Kingdom targets USD 1.7 tn by 2030.

The non-oil sector is still a work in progress: Non-oil GDP revenue slightly missed its target of USD 694.8 bn for 2024, reaching USD 680.9 bn. Non-oil merchandise exports rose to USD 82 bn since the Vision’s launch, though their share of non-oil GDP remains at 25.2%, below the 35% target for 2024.

THE OVERACHIEVERS-

PIF stands strong: Since Vision 2030’s launch in 2016, the Public Investment Fund’s (PIF) assets increased 390% to USD 940 bn from USD 190 bn, exceeding its 2024 target of USD 880 bn. As a result, the 2030 asset goal was raised to USD 2.67 tn from USD 1.87 tn.

The PIF is also expected to beat that target and reach USD 3.2 tn (SAR 12 tn) due to strong annual returns, coming in between 7-8% and outperforming the global average of 5-6%, American Economic Association’s Ali Al Hazmi told Asharq Business.

ALSO- RHQ, unemployment, and tourism are ahead of the curve: Riyadh now hosts 571regionalheadquarters, surpassing the 2030 target of 500. National unemployment dropped to 7% in 2024, achieving the 2030 goal. Women’s labor participation now stands at 33.5%, on track for the 2030 target of 40%, which is already an update to the 30% target achieved a decade earlier. The Kingdom also received 100 mn tourists seven years ahead of schedule, leading authorities to raise the 2030 target to 150 mn.

ON TRACK-

The private sector pulls its weight: The private sector’s contribution to GDP reached 47%, surpassing the 2024 target of 46% as it guns for 65% by 2030. SMEs alone now contribute 21.9% to GDP, beating their 20.2% goal for 2023 and progressing toward the 2030 target at 35%.

Foreign direct investment powers forward: FDI inflows exceeded its 2023 target by 16% at USD 25.6 bn, contributing 2.4% to GDP, despite a 1.31% dip since 2021 on the back of lower global liquidity and tighter monetary conditions. Foreign ownership in the financial market surpassed USD 100 bn for the first time to reach USD 112.8 bn in 2024.

Mining and military make resourceful progress: The mining sector’s value almost doubled to USD 2.51 tn since the Vision’s launch. The geological survey progress reached 51%, up from merely 1.7% in 2021, with the Kingdom securing first place in international mining investment growth and second in issuing mining licenses. Meanwhile, localization of military industries increased to 19.4% in 2023, up from 7.7% in 2016, and is progressing toward the 50% target by 2030.

Living better and longer: Saudi homeownership rose to 65.4%, meeting its 64% target for 2024, on track to the 70% target by 2030. Life expectancy rose to 78.8 years, surpassing its 2024 benchmark of 78.2 years and advancing toward the 2030 goal of 80 years. Healthcare service quality index reached 59%, outperforming the 2023 benchmark of 49%. On the happiness front, the Kingdom scored 6.6 on the World Happiness Index, higher than global and Gulf averages but slightly below the 6.78 target for 2024, with a goal of 7.54 by 2030.

MORE TARGETS ACHIEVED IN 2024 TARGETS –

  • Number of Saudi Sites on Unesco World Heritage List — eight actual vs. seven target
  • Population Clusters Covered by Healthcare Services — 97.4% actual vs. 96.5% target
  • Healthcare Services Quality Index — 97.4% actual vs. 96.5% target
  • Life Expectancy — 78.8 years actual vs. 78.2 target
  • Youth (5–17) Engaging in Daily Physical Activity — 18.7% actual vs. 10% target
  • Adults (18+) Engaging in Physical Activity — 58.5% actual vs. 53% target
  • Number of Foreign Umrah Pilgrims — 16.9 mn actual vs. 11.3 mn target
  • Financial Aid Beneficiaries Empowered — 33.7% actual vs. 32.5% target
  • Percentage of University Graduates Employed Within 6 Months — 43% actual vs. 41.2% target
  • Number of Employees in SMEs — 7.86 mn actual vs. 7.1 mn target

2024 TARGETS STILL IN PROGRESS-

  • World Happiness Index score — 6.6 actual vs. 6.78 target
  • Loans to SMEs as a Percentage of Total Bank Loans — 9.4% actual vs. 10% target
  • Local Content Share in the Oil & Gas Sector — 65.5% actual vs. 66% target
  • Local Content Share in Non-Oil Sector Spending — 55.8% actual vs. 59% target
  • Women’s Labor Force Participation Rate — 33.5% actual vs. 35.9% target
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