Good morning. We’re ready to kickstart the week with a trove of data on the flourishing Saudi economy. In this morning’s news well, We have the latest growth forecasts from the World Bank, as well as a deep dive into the targets of Vision 2030, as the ambitious transformation strategy embarks on its final phase.

FIRST- We got an early snapshot from SPA of how non-oil exports performed in 2024, and it’s looking good. Non-oil exports reached an all-time high of SAR 515 bn (USD 137 bn) last year, logging a 13% y-o-y increase and a 113% jump since the inauguration of Vision 2030. Services exports reached SAR 207 bn, growing 14% y-o-y and 220% since Vision 2030, buoyed by exceptional growth in the travel and tourism sectors.

** We’ll get to dive deep in the official international trade figures for 2024 when they’re out from Gastat next Wednesday. Until then, we have our trade numbers in February 2025, in today’s issue.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Aqaseem Factory for Chemicals and Plastics opens subscription for its SAR 50 mn, five-year sukuk today, offering a 10% annual coupon rate to be paid in two-yearly installments, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Interested investors can subscribe to a minimum of five units each at a par value of SAR 1k until Thursday, 8 May.

REFRESHER- This issuance is Aqaseem’s first public debt issuance under a SAR 500 mn LCY borrowing program. Proceeds from the sukuk sale will be used to fund capital and operational expenses, launch new business activities, and acquire new facilities.

The two-day Saudi Statistics Forum begins today at the Movenpick Hotel in Riyadh, bringing together over 300 regional and international data experts to discuss key topics in the field of statistics.

WEATHER- Clouds will gather over Riyadh, haze will linger in Makkah, and breezes will sweep through Madinah.

  • Riyadh: 31°C daytime / 24°C overnight
  • Makkah: 42°C daytime / 29°C overnight
  • Madinah: 40°C daytime / 24°C overnight

WATCH THIS SPACE-

The US is preparing to offer Saudi Arabia an arms package valued at “well over USD 100 bn” during US President Donald Trump’s visit to the Kingdom in May, Reuters reported on Friday, citing sources it said are in the know. Several defense company executives are reportedly considering traveling to the region as part of a delegation, three sources told the newswire.

Which companies will be involved? Military airplane manufacturers Lockheed Martin and Boeing, aerospace and defense firms RTX Corp (formerly Raytheon) and Northrop Grumman, and nuclear energy technology and drone manufacturer General Atomics have all been mentioned as potential suppliers.

What we know so far: Lockheed Martin is expected to supply advanced weapons systems, including C-130 transport aircraft, missiles, and radars, according to the sources. General Atomics has also been involved in a USD 20 bn agreement, including MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones and other aircraft. All potential sales of advanced weaponry are subject to congressional approval.

BACKGROUND- The Biden administration lifted a three-year ban on the sale of offensive weapons to the Kingdom in August, saying that Riyadh upheld its end of an agreement with Washington on drawing back its conflict with the Houthis in Yemen.

London-based Virgin Group is eyeing tourism investments in Saudi Arabia, including the opening of a hotel, cruise operation, and space tourism, CEO Richard Branson said during a press conference held at King Khaled International Airport (KKIA), Alsharq Al Awsat reports. Branson explained that the airline is the first step before deploying other group brands like Virgin Holidays, Virgin Voyages, and Virgin Galactic.

IN CONTEXT- Branson made the comments during a press conference to celebrate Virgin Atlantic’s first daily flight from London’s Heathrow Airport to Riyadh’s KKIA. This follows a September agreement to launch daily Riyadh-London flights under a partnership with the Saudi Air Connectivity Program.

OIL WATCH-

Several Opec+ members are expected to push for a faster increase in oil production in June as disagreements grow over some countries defying their output quotas, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing three sources it said are familiar with the talks. Eight Opec+ members will meet on 5 May to decide on the June output plan, with some members eying a similar output hike to the May output plan of 411k barrels per day (bbl / d).

BUT- A few members — including Russia — favor slower, more gradual output increases to avoid putting pressure on prices, two separate Opec+ sources told the newswire.

ICYMI- Kazakhstan’s new Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov stated last week that the country will prioritize its own needs when deciding on oil production levels, even if it goes against Opec+. He also emphasized that Kazakhstan cannot cut output at its major oil fields, as they are operated by foreign companies.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The world’s press descended on the Vatican for the Pope’s funeral — but of course Trump managed to steal the spotlight. A meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — their first since their February White House spat — is leading the digital front pages this morning. In a marked change of tone, Trump took to Truth Social to state that his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin may not “want to stop the war” and may need to “dealt with differently.” (Wall Street Journal | Financial Times | Bloomberg | Reuters | New York Times | Guardian)

And in our corner of the world, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas appointed longtime confidant Hussein Al Sheikh as his deputy — and likely successor — in a move seen as an attempt to quell mounting US, Arab, and international pressure for a clear succession plan. (New York Times | Reuters | Guardian)

While in Iran, a massive explosion tore through a port in Bandar Abbas killing at least 14 people and injuring more than 700 others, according to Iranian state media. Authorities said the blast — which unleashed a giant mushroom cloud and shattered windows kilometers away — was likely triggered by the ignition of improperly stored chemicals inside shipping containers. (Reuters | Financial Times | Guardian)

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