Good morning. We are starting the week hot with a somewhat packed issue, as uncertainty continues to loom over local and international markets.

The big stories today: Our budget deficit could hit USD 67 bn due to dropping oil prices, Goldman Sachs warned. Meanwhile, Tesla has officially landed in the Kingdom, set to face tough competition ahead from, BYD, Zeekr, and PIF-backed Lucid Motors, as the US-based automaker aims to escape problems at home.

ALSO- The Service Equipment Company has set its IPO price range ahead of its Nomu listing, aiming to raise up to SAR 60 mn. We also have the latest industrial production data from Gastat, and the latest Construction Sector Overview report from the Saudi Contractors Authority. Let’s dive in.

NEWS TRIGGERS-

Gastat set to roll out fresh inflation data: The General Authority for Statistics (Gastat) is scheduled to release the Consumer Price Index and Wholesale Price Index reports for the month of March on Tuesday.

ON THE SAME DAY- The Real Estate Price Index for 1Q is also due to come out this Tuesday.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The HumanCapability Initiative (HCI) Conference kicks off today at the King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh. Over two days, 300 speakers and over 12k attendees from over 100 countries will host discussions about skills, education, work, and technology to improve human capabilities.

Also under the HCI banner, the Education Global Exhibition (EDGEx) runs until Wednesday, 16 April at the Ritz Carlton, Riyadh. This event will showcase cutting-edge innovations and offer workshops to empower individuals and organizations.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

The 2025 Middle East Poultry Expo returns to the Riyadh International Convention and Exhibition Center, running from Monday to Wednesday. The 15k sqm venue is gearing up to receive more than 320 exhibitors from over 40 countries, marking a significant growth compared to last year ’s 207 exhibitors from 37 countries.

The 11th Saudi FilmFestival will showcase 68 films from 17 to 23 April in Dhahran, including feature films, shorts, and documentaries from Saudi Arabia, the Gulf, and beyond. This year’s edition honors actor Ibrahim Al-Hasawi and introduces new sections like screenings at the Energy Exhibit, a focus on Japanese cinema, and curated films from Clermont-Ferrand and Japan’s Short Shorts Film Festival. The festival includes masterclasses, discussion panels, and a production market while streaming selected content online.

The F1 stcSaudi Arabian Grand Prix 2025 revs up this Friday, 18 April, at the Jeddah Corniche Circuit and wraps up the following Sunday. A friendly reminder that schools will be off on 20-21 April in Jeddah, Makkah, and Taif as the race takes over the streets. You can grab your tickets here.

Support races and entertainment: The race weekend will also feature support races like the FIA Formula 2 Championship and the all-female F1 Academy Series, according to a schedule from F1. Off track, expect performances from Egyptian rapper Marwan Pablo in addition to Usher, Major Lazer Soundsystem, and Jennifer Lopez.

WEATHER- Expect a cloudy day in Riyadh, while Makkah and Madinah will experience breezy conditions, with gusts picking up throughout the day.

  • Riyadh: 33°C daytime / 21°C overnight
  • Makkah: 33°C daytime / 19°C overnight
  • Madinah: 32°C daytime / 16°C overnight

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Saudi Basic Industries’ (Sabic) net income is projected to drop 47% y-o-y to SAR 130 mn in 1Q 2025, while revenue is expected to rise 6% y-o-y to SAR 34.6 bn, Riyad Capital said in a research note seen by EnterpriseAM.

IN CONTEXT- Sabic still missed projections in 2024 despite swinging to a SAR 1.5 bn profit in2024, from a SAR 2.8 bn loss in 2023. The company reported a SAR 1.9 bn loss in 4Q 2024 on a slightly lower quarterly revenue of SAR 34.7 bn.

Petrochemical players are struggling with high costs and margin compression: The note projected a net income drop of 54% y-o-y to SAR 319 mn for the big eight in the sector, on the back of rising Chinese production, suboptimal global demand, and market uncertainty from US tariffs.

BUT- Riyad Capital believes that local producers may benefit from current market disruptions. US tariffs could offer a chance for Saudi firms to fill the supply gaps, the investment management firm said. Fertilizer products are also expected to perform better due to strong seasonal demand and higher prices for urea and ammonia, despite broader sector pressures.

Riyadh’s end of land freeze and anticipated White Land Tax Law reform are expected to boost its residential market, curb land hoarding, and expand housing supply and diversity, JLL’s Regional Director in Saudi Saud Al Sulaimani told Al Arabiya.

REMEMBER- Saudi Arabia launched a set of real estate reforms aimed at expanding land availability, improving rental regulations, and reining in soaring property prices in Riyadh. The plan includes offering 10k to 40k serviced residential plots annually, priced at a maximum of SAR 1.5k per sqm. In addition, new regulations will see the government lift a ban on land sales in Riyadh’s north, overhaul the White Land Tax Law, and introduce a new rental law.

Much needed reforms: Although around 30k new units are expected to enter the Riyadhmarket in 2025, demand continues to outpace supply, pressuring prices and reinforcing Riyadh’s position as the top city for residential investment returns in the Kingdom, Sulaimani said.

UAE’s G42-backed data analytics firm Presight plans to expand into Saudi Arabia in 2025, COO Adel AlSharji said at a media roundtable attended by EnterpriseAM UAE. The company is also eyeing the US, Kuwait, Egypt, and countries in Southeast Asia like Indonesia and the Philippines. The focus is mostly on the Global South, where there is high demand and a need for efficiency, a company spokesperson said during the event.

Presight aims to nearly double its revenue share from international markets to 40% from 23% last year, CEO Thomas Pramotedham told us on the sidelines. Other than the UAE, Presight operates in about 14 countries across Central and Southeast Asia as well as Africa through AI-powered applications that focus on digitizing urban infrastructure, energy, public defense systems, and emergency response and crisis management operations.

Saudi firms eye Egypt for new investment push: Some 100 Saudi investors and members of the Saudi-Egyptian Business Council led by the Federation of Saudi Chambers landed in Cairo yesterday to kick off a visit aimed at deepening investment ties between the Kingdom and Egypt, state news agency SPA reports.

On the agenda: The delegation will participate in a Saudi-Egyptian investment forum, hold B2B meetings, conduct site visits to major projects, and meet with Egyptian cabinet members and company representatives. Talks will spotlight prospects across different industries, including manufacturing, real estate, tourism, and trade zones.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Riyadh and Jeddah were listed among the 27 fastest-growing cities for m’naires, according to Henley and Partners' World’s Wealthiest Cities Report 2025. Riyadh saw a 65% increase in m’naires over the past decade, with over 20k high-net-worth individuals now based in the city, including 11 b’naires. Jeddah’s m’naire population grew by 50% to 10.4k, including nine b’naires.

REMEMBER- Saudi b’naires returned to Forbes World’s b’naire list for the first time since 2017, following a wave of IPOs and growing market transparency in the Kingdom. Some 15 Saudis made it to the list this year — up from 10 in 2017 — with a combined net worth of USD 55.8 bn.

#2- Riyadh ranked 27th in the Institute of Management Development’s SmartCity Index2025, followed by Makkah (29th), Jeddah (47th), Medina (67th) and AlUla (112th), who join the ranking for the first time. The UAE led rankings in the MENA region, with Dubai snagging 4th place and Abu Dhabi coming in 5th — the only Arab cities in the top 10.

#3- National carrier Saudia ranked first worldwide and second in the Mena region for both departure and arrival punctuality, with 94.1% on-time rates across 16k flights, according to a report (pdf) from Aviation Analytics firm Cirium.

Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport also ranked first as the most on-time large airport worldwide. The airport recorded a 93.9% on-time departure rate and a 91.9% on-time arrival rate over more than 19k flights. Dammam’s King Fahd International Airport ranked third among medium-sized airports globally, with a 91.6% on-time departure rate and 90.6% on-time arrival rate.

OIL WATCH-

Saudi oil shipments to China are set to increase to some 48 mn barrels in May, as buyers in Asia lock in extra barrels following a sharp drop in prices, Reuters reports, citing unnamed sources. The tally — representing a 35.5% m-o-m increase per our calculations — is the highest since 2024, marking the first allocation increase to China since the beginning of this year.

BACKGROUND- Aramco made its steepest oil price cut in over two years after slashing May prices for Arab light crude and other grades to Asia by USD 2.30, citing “healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook.” The move came on the back of Kazakhstan continuing to report record production figures and Iraq failing to comply with production cuts.

SPEAKING OF- Kazakhstan is showing no signs of slowing down, carrying on business as usual at the oil pump with no intention of cutting back production, with an operator saying that no formal reduction request was received, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. Non-conforming countries will have till mid-April to submit their plans to commit to production curbs, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee said in a statement last week following a meeting.

SPORTS-

Selected bidders for the six football clubs up for privatization will be unveiled by the end of 2Q 2025, Media and Marketing Deputy Minister Adel Bakheet Al Zahrani told Asharq Business on the sidelines of the Sports Investment Forum. Some 22 bids — including interest from foreign companies — are currently under evaluation as part of the second wave of privatization.

The clubs up for grabs in the first batch include: Al Zulfi, Al Nahda, Al Okhdood, Al Ansar, Al Orouba and Al Kholoud. The second batch to be offered at a later stage include: Al Shoulla, Hajar, Al Najma, Al Riyadh, Al Rawda, Jeddah, Al Taraji and Al Sahel.

REMEMBER- The first phase of the privatization program saw top football clubs Al Ittihad, Al Ahli, Al Nassr, and Al Hilal transformed into companies, with the PIF holding a 75% stake, helping the four clubs sign some of the world’s top football stars (Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema, among others). The transfers led the clubs to collectively spend almost USD 1 tn during last year’s summer transfer window.

SPEAKING OF TRANSFERS- Salah stays at Liverpool, shrugs off Saudi interest: Egyptian winger Mohamed Salah opted to extend his contract with Liverpool for another two years. The superstar has been linked with a move to Saudi which could have seen him make some GBP 500 mn, BBC reports, citing unnamed sources.

Never say never: Talks of a possible Saudi switch were first floated last February, and while Salah is staying put for now, the switch remains a future possibility, writes the British newswire.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The global tariff war is continuing to lead the news cycle across the global press, with both the business and national papers focusing on US President Donald Trump’s decision to spare smartphones, laptops, chips, and other electronics from his sweeping new tariff regime. The US Customs and Border Protection authority on Friday published a bulletin, listing all the products that will be “excluded from the reciprocal tariffs.” The carveout covers USD 390 bn worth of US imports in 2024 — including some USD 101 bn from China — shielding devices that aren’t manufactured in the US from the 10% global tariff and the much steeper 125% levy on Chinese goods. (Reuters | Bloomberg | Wall Street Journal | New York Times | Financial Times)

While a little closer to home, the US and Iran are back at the negotiating table. Tehran and Washington held their highest-level indirect talks in years on Saturday in Oman, marking a potential shift in a long-running standoff over Iran’s nuclear program. Both sides described the two-hour session — mediated by Omani officials — as “constructive” and agreed to resume talks next weekend. US envoy Steven Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly discussed a framework for a possible agreement aimed at scaling back Iran’s uranium enrichment activities in exchange for limited sanctions relief. (Financial Times | Reuters | Axios | AP | CNN | New York TImes)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Esports return to Riyadh with a record USD 70 mn prize pool: The Esports World Cup is set to run between 7 July and 24 August at Boulevard City, featuring 24 esports titles and boasting a record-breaking prize pool exceeding USD 70 mn, it said in a statement. Some USD 27 mn is allocated for the EWC Club Championship, while USD 38 mn will be allocated to game-specific championships — with winners set to bag USD 7 mn each.

ALSO- The 2025 edition will feature a club championship — including new additions such as competitive chess, Crossfire, and Valorant — and a gaming festival spreading across 50k sqm. Tickets are already available here.

AND- The Saudi Venture Capital Company (SVC) will launch its two-day Private CapitalForum on Wednesday, 22 October in Riyadh's King Abdullah Financial District. The event will bring together over 50 speakers around more than 15 panels to discuss the private investment ecosystem, including venture investing, private equity, and debt.

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