Good morning, wonderful people, and welcome to an unusually packed issue as we say goodbye to the workweek.

In this morning’s news well: Aramco and Sinopec are expanding their petrochemical production at the Yasref refinery in Yanbu, while Aramco discovered 14 new oil and natural gas fields. Meanwhile, Saudi Electricity Company has launched phase two of its Battery Energy Storage System project, and Lucid has closed a USD 1 bn convertible bond sale. And a lot more..

BUT FIRST- We here at EnterpriseAM World Headquarters have put our heads together and humbly offer a handful of thoughts in the hope that they might help you clear your heads before we slide into the weekend. The rundown:

That feeling you’ve got? The one perhaps best described as “whiplash”? It’s the new normal — maybe for the next few months, perhaps for the coming 3.7 years of the Trump administration.

Things are so volatile that even watching the VIX will give you motion sickness. The VIX, or the so-called “fear index” that tracks expected 30-day volatility in the S&P 500, broke north of 52 earlier this week. It stayed there through much of yesterday before plunging to the 33 level by the close of trading in New York as traders welcomed Trump’s social media post that most countries (with the exception of China) would face only a new 10% baseline tariff for the next 90 days. Most other “reciprocal tariffs” on most countries are now on pause.

In context: The last time the VIX was this high was during covid, when it hit 65. It was at 70 in October 2018 (at the height of the global financial crisis) and 42 during the dotcom meltdown.

So, if volatility is the new normal, how should we feel about business and markets in the days and weeks ahead? Here are some thoughts from Dubai, where we’ve spent the week speaking with business leaders from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE, as well as global fund and portfolio managers.

#1- Get comfortable with being uncomfortable. Volatility could be on the menu for years to come (for at least the duration of the Trump administration). Periods of calm punctuated by a punch to the head could be the new normal. Then again, ours is an adaptable species: As our friend Mostafa Gad, the global head of IB at EFG Hermes, put it earlier this week, “Markets adapt faster today than they did in the 1980s or 1990s — they have a way of equilibrating and accepting change or adapting to crisis really quickly. What would have once taken 18 months to pass through now takes weeks.”

None of us in this part of the world like volatility. In the GCC, we’re accustomed to pegged exchange rates and (for the most part) slow-but-steady policy formulation. In Egypt, we think of every 1 piaster change in the USD exchange rate as a harbinger of disaster. We need to adapt: A more nimble approach to policymaking in the Gulf will be the order of the day, and some volatility in the USD:EGP exchange rate is a sign the Central Bank of Egypt’s FX policy is operating as intended.

#2- From tech to airlines and beyond, there’s a healthy pipeline of IPOs ready for execution in Saudi and the UAE. Expect most to take a “wait and see” attitude for the coming week or 10 days. If the 90-day pause in tariffs helps stabilize global equities markets, many bankers will want to pull the trigger on transactions before the 1H offering window closes. The (so-far) worst-case scenario: It takes a few months more for markets to accept the new normal. In that case, we’re looking at a really busy fall for new offerings.

#3- Share-based M&A is very much on the table and it might be a good time for private equity players to close transactions. Some PE players think valuations have been stubbornly high for a while, and the combination of lower comparables after the recent market slump and higher volatility could push serious buyers and sellers to transact *now*. The risk: Some sellers will walk away from prices they think are just too low. Expect share-based M&A to close with fewer hiccups than anything involving the commitment of cash. The wisdom of Warren Buffett’s move to cash earlier this year is now clear to all.

#4- Everyone will be watching the price of oil — the Saudis and Emiratis from a state revenues perspective, the Egyptians from the expenses side of the ledger. The emerging consensus is that even if Trump cools it on tariffs, we’re looking at a slowdown in trade and a bit less demand for oil than forecast at the start of 2025. Oil in the 40s? Probably not. But something in the 50s? Possible — and with it, questions about financing the deficit and the pace of gigaprojects in the Kingdom in particular.

#5- Appetite for Egypt may be coming back. The central bank proved this week to both foreign investors and the domestic business community that the float of the EGP was real. Egyptian companies at the One on One reported more demand for meetings yesterday than expected. Investors looking to buy into Egyptian debt on Tuesday and Wednesday found it harder than usual to build a position because of rising demand.

#6- The UAE looks better than ever. Businesses in the UAE have quietly trimmed staff and other expenses in recent weeks to optimize their cost base in a year in which they expect volatility. But the economy’s fundamentals are strong and have been bolstered by regulatory reforms brought in post-covid. That real estate correction we’ve been expecting for two years now? Yeah, there’s a lot of new inventory coming onto the market this fall, but we feel a little like we’ve been waiting for Godot on that front…

#7- Diversification of trade ties is going to be key for Mideast governments. From Saudi to Egypt to the UAE, all of us would have faced a 10% rate at the same time as others faced much sharper US tariffs, signalling we’re in good stead with The Donald. Regardless of what happens with tariffs 90 days from now, deeper integration with a wider variety of trading partners will be the order of the day.

THE WILDCARD- The Donald is inbound to the Gulf in about a month’s time. US Energy Secretary Christopher Wright is on a nearly two-week visit to our corner of the world, laying the groundwork for Trump to land in Saudi, UAE, and Qatar some time in mid-May. (Dates for the visit, which hasn’t been confirmed, are still uncertain.)

HAPPENING TODAY-

Tesla is debuting in the Kingdom today at the Bujairi Terrace in Riyadh. The event will showcase the company’s electric vehicles, solar-powered products, and new technology, including an autonomous taxi and humanoid robot. We’re keeping a close eye out and will give you the rundown on Sunday’s issue.

WEATHER- Expect windy conditions in Riyadh and Madinah, while Makkah will see cloudy skies.

  • Riyadh: 38°C daytime / 26°C overnight
  • Makkah: 49°C daytime / 26°C overnight
  • Madinah: 36°C daytime / 24°C overnight

PSAs-

Residents have 10 days left to benefit from the 50% discount on traffic fines before it expires on Friday, 18 April 2025, the General Department of Traffic said in a post on X. The discount applies to violations before 18 April 2024, and payments can be made in full or per violation.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

PIF-owned Saudi Entertainment Ventures (Seven) completed 60% of its Al Hamra project in Riyadh at an estimated cost of SAR 3.6 bn, Chief Projects Officer Abdulelah Alfawzan told Aleqtisadiah. The project is located on a 90k sqm plot with a built-up area of 167k sqm, and is expected to open in the near future.

ICYMI- Seven signed an agreement with Tawal in Feburary to build and run digital infrastructure at its 21 entertainment destinations across 14 cities, including Riyadh, Jeddah, Dammam, and Khobar.

DATA POINTS-

Mawani records advance across the board in March: The Saudi General Authority for Ports (Mawani) recorded a 13.6% y-o-y boost in the volume of containers handled in March, reaching 699.9k TEUs, according to a statement.

The breakdown: Exported containers rose 31.8% y-o-y to over 280.3k TEUs, while the number of imported containers grew 7.8% y-o-y to 281.2k TEUs. The port handled 4.5 mn tons of solid bulk cargo, 15.7 mn tons of liquid bulk cargo, and 971.8k tons of general cargo.

ALSO- Maritime traffic grew by 6.75% y-o-y to over 1k vessels, while passenger traffic rose by 35.5% y-o-y to 84.6k, and vehicle traffic increased by 33.5% y-o-y to over 90.3k. The only operational decline was marked by transshipments, which slightly declined by 2.8% to 138.4k TEUs during the period.

SPORTS-

The Saudi Pro League (SPL) launched the Fans’ Choice Awards for season 2024-2025, giving supporters a chance to reward the best-performing clubs and players across six categories, according to a press release (pdf). Additionally, the SPL will distribute two additional prizes to recognize three corporate social responsibility initiatives and one sports personality.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Global investors are getting whiplash after US President Donald Trump’s decision to freeze reciprocal tariffs on most countries for 90 days triggered a historic market rally, helping Wall Street stocks recover tns of USDs in losses.

Trump paused tariffs on (most of) his reciprocal tariffs on (most) countries and hiked China’s tariff to 125%, up from 104%, after Beijing pushed ahead with a retaliatory tariff of 84% on US goods. The blanket 10% tariff on most countries, which came in effect over the weekend, still applies, as do steel and aluminum and automaker levies. The reprieve came in response to over 75 countries reaching out for negotiations with the US, according to Trump.

The Nasdaq notched its best day in 24 years, while the S&P 500 soared nearly 10%. Trump had taken to Truth earlier in the day to say it’s “A GREAT TIME TO BUY,” in reference to the stock market. US Treasuries also gained more than 4% as traders pared expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, after a pullback had sent longer-term yields soaring.

Oil prices also gained 4%, climbing from a four-year low earlier, with Brent futures up to USD 65.48 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate futures up nearly 5% at USD 62.35. (Reuters)

The about-turn and the market rally are getting coverage everywhere: Bloomberg | Reuters | Financial Times | WSJ | CNBC

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