With a nosedive in oil prices, the international press is buzzing with the ripple effects on Saudi Arabia’s economic agenda. Reuters took note of Brent crude nearing a four-year low of around USD 64 per barrel over the past week, which is well below the USD 90 level the IMF estimates is needed to balance the Kingdom’s budget with Vision 2030 spending and the 2034 FIFA World Cup.

The newswire put forth pundits’ reckoning of either deeper spending cuts or a rampant debt issuance as falling revenues and slashed Aramco dividends tighten fiscal space. Chatham House associate fellow Neil Quilliam expects Vision 2030 projects to undergo reprioritization, rationalization, and workforce reductions, while Columbia University’s Karen Young anticipates the Kingdom will increasingly rely on debt financing, with planned contracting awards delayed or scaled back.

On the geopolitical front, Bloomberg alluded to the increasing hurdles facing the Kingdom’s goal of securing USD 600 bn in trade and investment with the US, as well as answering Trump’s call to raise the figure to USD 1 tn further.

Bloomberg reported dim prospects from Goldman Sachs, where the bank flagged Brent could dip below USD 40 per barrel by late 2026 in a worst-case scenario involving a global recession and a full unwinding of Opec+ supply cuts. Goldman’s base case sees Brent at USD 58 by December and USD 50 by 2026-end, still far below the Kingdom’s sweet spot.

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