Good morning, wonderful readers. We’re back in your inbox after a long hiatus that we hope you enjoyed with family and friends. It was very eventful, too: Trump’s “liberation day” saw tariffs imposed on all imports (including ours), and OPEC+ unexpectedly raised oil production more than three times originally planned.

In this morning’s news well, we delve into latest trade figures from Gastat, and sweeping real estate reforms that aim at opening up the sector for more private investments. We also have a flurry of last-minute 2024 earnings. Let’s dive in.

WEATHER- Riyadh is cloudy, while Makkah is expected to experience rain, and Madinah will see thunderstorms.

  • Riyadh: 37°C daytime / 24°C overnight
  • Makkah: 39°C daytime / 27°C overnight
  • Madinah: 38°C daytime / 27°C overnight

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

The EFG Hermes One on One kicks off tomorrow morning in Dubai. More than 200 companies from 29 countries attended last year’s iteration, meeting with 670 fund and portfolio managers from 250 global institutions.

It’s difficult to imagine a more opportune time for an EM-focused equities conference given the turmoil roiling markets as US President Donald Trump sets out to shake the foundations of the post-Second World War economic order. The gathering runs through Thursday.

Egypt’s Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk and CBE Deputy Governor Rami Aboulnaga are on stage tomorrow morning for the headline panel, followed by a UAE-focused panel discussion and the gathering’s customary EFG Hermes Live Research Poll. We’ll have full coverage all week long.

Want to catch up for coffee during the One on One? Hit reply to this email and let’s see if our schedules intersect.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Flynas cleared for IPO: Budget airline Flynas received approval from the Capital Market Authority (CMA) to proceed with an IPO that will see it offer 51.26 mn shares, representing a 30% stake, according to a statement. A prospectus for the offering is yet to be published.

We’ve been expecting it: Plans to go public this year were confirmed by the Kingdom Holding Company’s CEO Prince Al Waleed Bin Talal on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum. The airline had initially planned to make its market debut last year, having tapped Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Saudi Fransi Capital for the offering in late 2023.

IN CONTEXT- The listing would be the Gulf’s third airline IPO — and the first in nearly two decades — following UAE’s Air Arabia and Kuwait’s Jazeera Airways.

About Flynas: The low-budget airliner is a private equity-backed company, operating over 1.5k weekly flights, servicing 139 routes to connect 30 countries with a 61-aircraft fleet.

ALSO- Specialized Medical Company received approval from the CMA to offer a 30% stake on Tadawul, according to a statement. The hospital operator must complete the offering of some 75 mn shares within six months, pending the publication of a prospectus.

US President Donald Trump signaled he might be visiting Saudi Arabia as early as next month during a presser at the Oval Office (watch, runtime: 3:41). Mid-May is pegged as the potential timeframe for the trip, four sources told Reuters.

On the agenda: The visit will focus on finalizing USD 1 tn in Saudi investments in the US, discussing the Russia-Ukraine war and the Gaza conflict, and exploring an expansion of the Abraham Accords — though The Kingdom’s involvement remains uncertain.

REMEMBER- Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had initially pledged an additional USD 600 bn investment package to the US over the next four years. Trump, however, had his sights set on a larger figure of USD 1 tn.

Homegrown auto distributor Jameel Motors and China’s Chongqing Changan Automobile plan to enter the South African market later this year, Bloomberg reports, citing statements from the two companies. The Abdul Latif Jameel Group subsidiary will invest ZAR 500 mn (USD 27.2 mn) to open 50 showrooms and offer Changan’s SUVs, pick-ups, sedans, and Deepal electric vehicles to Africa’s largest automotive market in 4Q 2025.

Saudi has growing interest in South Africa: Aramco is among the bidders for Shell’s downstream assets, while Zahid Group is negotiating to increase its stake in Barloworld.

OIL WATCH-

Eight OPEC+ countries agreed to raise oil production more than three times originally planned, according to a statement from the group. The 411k barrels per day increase fast-tracks three months’ worth of phased output hikes originally set to begin in April as part of the group’s plan to gradually unwind 2.2 mn bbl/d of voluntary cuts through September 2026.

The group said the move reflects “healthy market fundamentals” and a more positive demand outlook — though it emphasized that the hikes “may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions.” The countries included Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman.

The rationale? The decision comes after Kazakhstan continued to report record figures at the oil pump and Iraq failed to comply with production cuts, Reuters reported on Friday, citing three unnamed sources. During a video conference held on Thursday, Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman also cautioned that non-compliance with production targets will lead to further increments, calling the unexpected May rise an “aperitif,” said another unnamed source to Bloomberg.

The news saw Brent continue to fall in the markets, reaching a four-year low and collapsing around 14% to reach USD 65.58 a barrel by the end of trading on Friday. Adding fuel to the fire was the US’ imposition of blanket tariffs and the prospect of reciprocal tariffs from China, the EU, and other major trading partners.

SPORTS-

PGA Tour turned down a USD 1.5 bn investment by the Public Investment Fund (PIF) into its for-profit entity PGA Tour Enterprises, ESPN reported, citing unnamed sources. The offer was reportedly made with the condition that Liv Golf — PGA Tour’s PIF-backed rival league — remain intact, a stipulation the PGA Tour was unwilling to accept.

BACKGROUND- PGA Commissioner and golfer Adam Scott recently asked US President Donald Trump to mediate merger talks with Liv Golf “for the good of the game,” following an Oval Office meeting in February attended by PIF Governor Yasir Al Rumayyan. “Hopefully, the two tours are going to merge,” Trump was quoted as saying by the Associated Press.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The international business press is still trying to make sense of Trump’s tariffs that began to come into play over the weekend, with the US now collecting a 10% universal tariff on Saturday on most imports from dozens of countries, with further “reciprocal” tariffs of up to 50% on 57 major trading partners — including a 34% levy on Chinese goods — set to kick in on Wednesday. Countries across the globe are already starting to fight back, including China, which announced a 34% tariff on all US goods starting 10 April export controls on seven rare earth minerals used in high-tech manufacturing.

Trump’s tariff announcements on Wednesday triggered the worst week for global equities since the onset of the COVID pandemic, leading to the S&P 500 losing 9.1% through the week — including a 6.0% fall on Friday alone — erasing USD 5.4 tn in market value and the Nasdaq down more than 20% from its December peak. Exchanges outside the US fared little better, with the UK’s FTSE 100 losing 7.0% in the week and the EURO STOXX 50 down 8.2%. (Financial Times | Reuters | Bloomberg | Guardian)

Also ranking highly in this morning’s digital front pages are protests across the US against the sitting administration, with tens of thousands of demonstrators taking to the streets in all 50 states to protest Trump’s cuts to federal agencies, deportation crackdown, economic tariffs, and attack on civil liberties. (New York Times | Guardian | Reuters | Bloomberg)

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