Good morning. We wrap up the workweek as Ramadan is entering the last ten days, with a brisk issue that is heavy on news from mining and debt markets.

In this morning’s news well: S&P Global’s two cents on Saudi’s economy, the latest sukuk issuance from the Finance Ministry, and Emaar, the Economic City renews an SAR 1 bn loan with the PIF. We also have a flurry of earnings from Sipchem, Petro Rabigh, and others. Let’s dive in.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif is in town after arriving in Jeddah yesterday for a four-day visit that is set to conclude this Saturday, 22 March, according to state media agency SPA. Sharif is scheduled to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during his trip and is looking to discuss bilateral relations, economic cooperation, and investment ties between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, according to Samaa News. Sharif is also expected to discuss Gaza, the Middle East, and broader “issues concerning the Muslim world.”

#2- Saudi Arabia and China will face off today at 9:15pm in their 2026 World Cup qualifier at Al Awwal Park in Riyadh. The Green Falcons are just one point shy from a direct qualification spot, leveling on points with Indonesia, Bahrain, and China in Group C.

WEATHER- Thunderstorms continue across Riyadh. Makkah, and Madinah today.

  • Riyadh: 34°C daytime / 21°C overnight
  • Makkah: 34°C daytime / 26°C overnight
  • Madinah: 34°C daytime / 20°C overnight

HAPPENING NEXT WEEK-

Talks on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire will return to Jeddah on Sunday, US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Wittkoff told Fox News in an interview (watch, runtime: 6:18), following US President Donald Trump’s phone call with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

What came out of it? Witkoff said Putin agreed to a US-backed proposal — which includes a 30-day ceasefire covering energy, infrastructure, and targets in the Black Sea — and is hopeful it will bring the Ukrainians on board. This initial compromise, Washington hopes, will lead to a broader agreement.

MEANWHILE- The meeting will also cover shipping safety, and involve military personnel as well as experts in port and civil infrastructure, Interfax reported, citing a press conference by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Presidential Palace in Helsinki.

IN CONTEXT- The Kingdom hosted talks between top US and Ukrainian officials in Riyadh earlier this month, after which Washington resumed military aid to Kyiv in exchange for agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire.

PSAs-

Schools will be off on 20-21 April in Jeddah, Makkah, and Taif as Formula 1 takes over the streets for the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, which runs between 18-20 April, according to Saudi Gazette.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Egyptian real estate developer Madinet Masr is in talks with potential partners in Saudi Arabia and the UAE for its planned GCC expansion, CEO Abdallah Sallam told Zawya. Sallam didn’t name the companies involved in the talks or share a concrete timeframe for the developer’s first foray outside Egypt.

First stop is likely Riyadh, Sallam said, adding that “we are talking with three to four companies in Saudi Arabia…some of them have their own lands.”

PLUS- Egyptian investment bank Zilla Capital is looking into launching specialized funds in Saudi Arabia, including a pre-IPO fund, with USD 300 mn target capital over five years to invest in two to three companies annually, Managing Partner Marwan Younes told Zawya. Zilla has had its sight set on the Kingdom for some time now, with its chairman unveiling plans to launch its first project in KSA — an asset management company — back in September.

PIF-backed ultra-luxury hotel operator Aman Group is planning to raise up to USD 2 bn to expand in the Middle East and Africa, including 23 hotel projects and expanding Aman Residences, CEO Vladislav Doronin told Bloomberg. The company is in late-stage talks with bankers to structure the fundraising, targeting institutional and high net-worth investors, with completion expected by early 2026.

There’s lots in the pipeline: The company is pursuing a Middle East and Africa property expansion for Aman, including its Janu hotel line catering to younger travelers. The company is developing three Janu properties in the region, including hotels in historic Saudi locations in AlUla and Diriyah, and has sold around half of the three dozen mansions under construction in Riyadh’s Diriyah district for USD 35-39 mn each, Doronin added.

Background: Aman Group raised USD 900 mn from the Public Investment Fund and Cain International in 2022, which valued the company at USD 3 bn.

EY sees Saudi projects contributing to the “resilience of GCC banks” this year: The “implementation of economic transformation projects in the Kingdom” will underpin the overall resilience of GCC banks in 2025, EY said in a press release. The Kingdom’s planned megaprojects are also expected to “play a role in creating enormous business and lending opportunities for banks this year,” the statement reads.

The rationale: EY sees GCC banks continuing to “benefit from strong capital levels” in 2025, with credit growth set to be driven by a strong project pipeline “with aggregate contract awards driven by infrastructure development, especially in [Saudi] and the UAE.”

IN CONTEXT- Moody’s projected that Saudi banks’ credit will rise on the back of a heightened push for funding megaprojects, coupled with a growing appetite for homeownership. The agency sees the government’s wide-reaching economic transformation plans as providing ample business and lending prospects for the domestic banking sector.

DATA POINTS-

Consumer spending via point-of-sale (PoS) transactions in the Kingdom went up 4.0% w-o-w in the week ending Saturday, 15 March to c. SAR 13.6 bn, according to the Saudi Central Bank’s report (pdf). The number of weekly transactions also rose by 4.1% w-o-w to 193.1 mn.

The details: PoS transactions on jewelry saw the largest increase in terms of value, growing 31.1% w-o-w to SAR 419.2 mn, followed by clothing and footwear, whose value rose 22.8% to SAR 1.5 bn. Hotels came in a close third, with the value of transactions increasing 19.1% w-o-w to SAR 352.7 mn. In terms of volume, jewelry recorded the biggest hike during the week at 29.5%.

Riyadh once again had the highest value of PoS transactions at SAR 4.7 bn, followed by Jeddah at SAR 2.0 bn and Abha at SAR 142.8 mn.

OIL WATCH-

Saudi Aramco’s oil production costs in the Kingdom rose 11% y-o-y in 2024 to reach SAR 13.24 (USD 3.53) per barrel post-drilling, Aleqtisadiah reports, citing company data. The exploration and production sector’s capital expenditure per barrel of oil equivalent increased by 31% y-o-y to SAR 31.1 (USD 8.3). Aramco’s hydrocarbon production dropped 3% y-o-y to 12.4 mn barrels of oil equivalent per day last year, while liquid materials — including oil, LNG, and condensates — fell 4% y-o-y to 10.3 mn barrels per day.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Israel launched a limited ground operation in Gaza on Wednesday, with troops reoccupying areas outside population centers, the Israeli army said in a post on X. Troops have expanded their control over parts of the Netzarim Corridor, which runs east to west across the strip “in order to expand the security zone and to create a partial buffer between northern and southern Gaza.” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz issued a “final warning” just before the operation began, saying residents in battle zones would soon be evacuated again unless Hamas freed the remaining hostages and was removed from power.

The operation comes after Israel resumed strikes on Gaza earlier this week, killing hundreds of Palestinians and marking the deadliest day in the strip in over two months and the collapse of January’s ceasefire agreement. Hamas condemned the new ground operation as a “dangerous violation” of the ceasefire agreement. (Bloomberg | Reuters | BBC | New York Times)

AND- Fed keeps rates unchanged: The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, as policymakers grapple with heightened economic uncertainty amid the Trump administration’s tariff-heavy trade policies. We have the details in this morning’s Planet Finance. (Reuters | CNBC | Bloomberg | AP | BBC | CNN)

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