S&P Global sees GDP growing by 2.8% in 2025

The Kingdom’s GDP growing by 2.8% in 2025, on the back of higher private consumer spending, according to an analysis from S&P Global cited by Zawya. Fixed investment — supported by the private sector — is forecast to grow by 3.8%.

Risks could hamper the growth: Global economic growth could see a slowdown in the event of a weakening US economy or escalated trade tensions — which would, in turn, lead to a drop in oil demand, causing prices to fall significantly. Meanwhile, an appreciation of the USD as a result of US tariffs would directly impact the Saudi economy and its competitiveness, according to S&P Global.

S&P Global is less optimistic than others: FinMin expects real GDP to grow 4.6% in 2025, it said in October. The IMF and the World Bank slashed the Kingdom’s 2025 growth projections to 3.2% and 3.4% respectively, citing extended Opec+ production cuts. Meanwhile, Capital Economics penciled in an even more optimistic prediction of 3.5%, citing anticipated oil output cuts, “but activity in the non-oil sector is likely to soften on the back of a turn to fiscal consolidation.”

The rating agency’s prediction is still far higher than how Saudi Arabia performed lastyear, with real GDP having grown by 1.3% y-o-y in 2024, according to latest estimates by Gastat.