Saudi Arabia’s GDP saw a 1.3% y-o-y increase in 2024, rebounding from a 0.8% contraction in 2023, on the back of a 4.3% increase in non-oil activities, according to figures from the General Authority of Statistics (Gastat) (pdf). Oil activities shrank 4.5% y-o-y, while government expenditure grew 2.6% over the same period. The latest estimates echo last month’s flash projections.

Beating (almost) all forecasts: The full-year growth figure is an uptick from the Finance Ministry’s 0.8% growth forecast, after it revised down its initial forecast of 4.4%. The figure was also higher than the World Bank’s revised estimate of 1.1% in December, and only 0.1 percentage point lower than the IMF’s recently revised 1.4% clip.

A look at 4Q: Real GDP grew 4.5% y-o-y during the fourth quarter of the year to SAR 1.1 tn, driven by a 3.4% growth in oil activity, which accounts for the highest share of GDP at 19.7%. Non-oil activity also saw a 4.7% growth, while government expenditure increased 2.2% y-o-y.

REMEMBER- Real GDP grew 2.8% y-o-y in 3Q 2024, snapping a four-quarter downwardtrend.

On a quarterly basis: Seasonally adjusted real GDP was up 0.3% q-o-q in 4Q, supported by an increase of 1.3% in non-oil activities and a 0.6% increase in government activities by 0.6%. Meanwhile, quarterly growth was partly offset by a 1.5% drop in oil activities.

LOOKING AHEAD- The IMF and the World Bank slashed the Kingdom’s 2025 growth projections to 3.2% and 3.4% respectively, citing extended Opec+ production cuts. Meanwhile, NBK forecasts our non-oil GDP to grow more than 4.0% in 2025, “underpinned by a strong investment drive, reform progress, rising FDI and employment, and promising momentum in strategic sectors such as tourism, manufacturing, and transport/logistics.”

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