Good morning, wonderful readers. We welcome the second workweek of the holy month with the latest forecasts and news in the Kingdom’s logistics sector and capital markets, and more.

Leading this morning’s news well: NBK is out with its forecasts for our economy in 2025, the latest data on M&A transactions in the MENA region in 2024, and the inauguration of a new and improved container terminal at Jeddah Islamic Port by Mawani and DP World. We also have the full-year earnings of Ma’aden, which saw the mining giant’s net income jump 82.1%.

^^ The details on these stories and more are in this morning’s news well, below.

When do we eat? Maghrib is at 5:59pm today in Riyadh. You’ll have until fajr prayers at 4:49am tomorrow to finish your sohour.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Coffee chain operator Ratio Specialty will begin trading on the Nomu parallel market today, according to a Tadawul statement. Ratio’s shares can fluctuate within a ±30% range for the first three days, after which price fluctuations will be capped at ±10% before circuit breakers take effect.

REFRESHER- The company priced its secondary offering of a 25% stake (good for 5 mn shares) at SAR 10 apiece. The offering, limited to qualified institutional investors, was 8.6x oversubscribed. The pricing gives Ratio a market cap of SAR 200 mn at listing with proceeds from the sale earmarked to the selling shareholders, after deducting some SAR 2.6 mn to cover IPO-related expenses.

The retail bookbuilding period for Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction’s IPO wraps up today, whereby retail investors can book up to 2.5 mn shares each, with the minimum limit set at 10 shares. The final allocation of shares is slated for this Thursday, 13 March. A total of 13.08 mn shares (10% of the offering) is allocated for retail investors.

REMEMBER- Umm Al Qura is offering a 9.1% stake on Tadawul’s main market priced at the top of its indicative range at SAR 15 per share, with the institutional tranche oversubscribed by 241x. The pricing would see it raise SAR 2 bn in proceeds and give the firm a market cap of SAR 21 bn at listing, making it the largest IPO on Tadawul so far this year.

WEATHER- Riyadh remains under stormy skies, while Makkah will be windy. Madinah can expect clear skies today.

  • Riyadh: 25°C daytime / 14°C overnight
  • Makkah: 31°C daytime / 23°C overnight
  • Madinah: 27°C daytime / 13°C overnight

PSAs-

#1- Businesses subject to withholding tax must file their February tax returns by tomorrow through the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority’s (Zatca) website, according to a statement. Missing the deadline will result in penalties of 1% of the unpaid tax for every 30 days of delay.

#2- Commercial register and trade names services will be suspended for one week from Thursday, 27 March to Thursday, 3 April ahead of the launch of the new Commercial Register and Trade Names law, the Commerce Ministry said. During this period, only commercial reports, licenses for discounts, commercial franchise services, and commercial statements will remain available.

Suspended services include any modifications to a commercial register, amending contracts, reserving trade names, and establishing companies

BACKGROUND- The new law looks to simplify procedures and make it easier to do business. It requires companies to operate under a single commercial register for all activities in Saudi Arabia, bans duplicate trade names, eliminates regional sub-records, and updates registry renewal timelines, among other changes.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Did a hiring dispute cause the PIF-PwC row? The Public Investment Fund (PIF) was reportedly at odds with PwC over the consultancy firm’s attempt to hire Neom’s then-chief internal audit officer Jason Davies, the Financial Times reported, citing sources it said are familiar with the matter. Davies, who had been with Neom since 2020 and left in September 2024, was seen as a key figure, and the proposed hire raised ethical concerns due to PwC's close ties with PIF. Davies ultimately did not join PwC.

REMEMBER- PwC was reportedly barred from securing advisory and consulting contracts from the fund and its subsidiaries until February 2026, two years after setting up its regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia, where it employs over 2k people. The consulting firm informed employees in an internal memo last week that the situation pertains to a “client” matter rather than a regulatory issue.

IN CONTEXT- PwC’s Middle East business, which grew by 26% in the year to June 2024, has been a key driver of the firm’s overall revenue growth, according to the salmon-colored paper. The Kingdom's consulting market, the region’s largest, was valued at USD 3.2 bn in 2023, up 18.2% from 2022.

#2- Our World Expo 2030 bid is in the final approval stage: The Kingdom submitted its registration dossier for World Expo 2030 Riyadh to France’s Bureau International des Expositions (BIE), entering the final approval stage for hosting the event, the Royal Commission of Riyadh said in a statement released last Friday. The dossier outlines key aspects of Saudi Arabia’s implementation plan for the event, including the timeline, site master plan, and financial and legislative frameworks.

BACKGROUND- The Kingdom was crowned 2030 World Expo host after defeating Italy and South Korea in a vote by Bureau International des Expositions member states late yesterday. Riyadh secured 119 out of 165 votes, while Busan received 29 and Rome, just 17. Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman later discussed preparations for the event with BIE Secretary-General Dimitri Kerkentzes.

#3- The PIF is investing USD 100 mn in Malaysian budget airline AirAsia, making it the biggest contributor to the airline’s USD 226 mn fundraising target, Bloomberg reports, citing sources it says are in the know. AirAsia is offering investors up to a 15% stake at a USD 2 bn valuation as it targets recovery from covid-19 losses.

The rationale: A key draw for the PIF’s investment is AirAsia’s backlog of over 350 Airbus narrowbody aircraft. PIF’s Riyadh Air secured part of these delivery slots, easing the Malaysian airline’s financing burdens while providing Riyadh Air with planes needed for its 3Q 2025 launch. Riyadh Air chose the slots instead of purchasing 100 Boeing 737 jets.

Nothing set in stone: AirAsia is also in talks with investors from Singapore and Japan, with a potential announcement expected within weeks, although reaching a final agreement is not guaranteed, the sources said.

#4- The National Water Company is set to award a contract for three water purification plants and adjoining water pipelines in 2Q 2025, Zawya reports, citing sources it says are in the know. The project covers the operation and maintenance at the Labkha and Hawiyat plants in Al Quwayiyah with a daily capacity of 5k cubic meters, as well as at the Moral Guidance Institute plant in Al Muzahmiyah with a 1.5k cubic meter daily capacity. Bid submissions for the project wrapped up on 2 March.

#5- Iraq’s parliament is nearing approval of a new law to safeguard Saudi investments in Iraq, pending final regulatory amendments, Iraq’s Ambassador to Riyadh Safia Al Souhail said in an interview with Asharq Al Awsat. The new law aims to strengthen Saudi-Iraqi investment ties, with both the PIF and Iraq’s Investment and Development Fund playing a major role in the process. The move comes as Riyadh and Baghdad strengthen their bilateral political, security, and economic partnerships.

DATA POINTS-

The Kingdom’s nonprofit sector contributed SAR 114 bn to the economy, breaching the SAR 100 bn threshold for the first time and accounting for 3.3% of GDP, according to King Khalid Foundation’s Prospects for the NonProfit Sector 2025 report (pdf). The report forecasts the sector will reach 5% of GDP — the Saudi Vision 2030 target — two years ahead of schedule.

The breakdown: Endowments contributed SAR 48 bn, non-profit organizations SAR 47 bn, volunteering SAR 5 bn, and cooperative societies SAR 2 bn. Education and research led revenues with SAR 19 bn, while health organizations topped spending at SAR 15 bn. Digital donation platforms raised over SAR 15 bn and endowment funds reached SAR 1.7 bn in assets, with projections to hit SAR 100 bn by 2040.

OIL WATCH-

Saudi Aramco lowered its crude oil prices for Asian buyers in April for the first time in three months, cutting Arab Light by USD 0.40 cents to USD 3.50 / bbl above the Oman and Dubai average, Reuters reported on Friday. The price cut aligns with market expectations, with a Reuters poll predicting a reduction of USD 0.20-0.65. The move follows Opec+’s decision to gradually increase oil supply in April, though the decision could be reversed if market imbalances emerge, Reuters reported, citing Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

SPORTS-

PIF to fund maternity program for WTA players: The Public Investment Fund (PIF) and the Women's Tennis Association (WTA) launched the PFA WTA Maternity Fund Program, which will see WTA players get up to 12 months of paid maternity leave, as well as grants for fertility treatments, according to a statement. This also got ink from AP | Washington Post | The Athletic | Reuters.

The details: The program — recognized as the “first and only” maternity program in women’s sport to receive full funding from an external partner — is accessible through competing in a specific number of WTA tournaments in a given time window while maintaining a “special” ranking. It falls under WTA’s Family Focus program, which works to facilitate players’ return to professional competition after starting a family. Over 320 players are eligible for the program.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Ceasefire negotiations are back on: Israel will be sending representatives to Qatar tomorrow to advance ceasefire negotiations, while Hamas representatives are in Cairo to partake in negotiations with Egyptian mediators. Hamas has hinted at “positive indicators” that the second phase of the three-phase ceasefire would start. (Reuters | AP | Bloomberg)

REMEMBER- Last week, Israel started blocking all humanitarian aid from entering Gaza in a bid to pressure Hamas into accepting changes to the already agreed on ceasefire agreement.

MEANWHILE- In Syria, more than 1k people were killed in two days of clashes between Syrian forces and former president Bashar Al Assad loyalists in the city of Latakia. The fighting left large parts of Latakia without power and clean water. (AP)

AND- China announced retaliatory tariffs on Canadian agricultural products, escalating trade tensions after Ottawa imposed import duties on Chinese-made EVs last year. Beijing will slap a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, oil cakes, and peas, and a 25% levy on aquatic products and pork. The new tariffs are set to take effect starting 20 March. (Reuters | Bloomberg | CNBC)

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