Good morning, wonderful people. It’s a somewhat busy day here in the Kingdom, led in large part by capital markets and forward-looking views on the Saudi economy. Expectations on non-oil GDP growth and the IPO pipeline lead this morning’s news well, with twin forecasts from Al Rajhi Capital and Century Financial.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The Future Minerals Forum kicks off in just a couple of hours at Riyadh’s King Abdulaziz International Conference Center. The highly-anticipated event is set to host some 14k participants from over 178 countries, bringing together government officials, senior execs, industry experts, investors, and other stakeholders to hold discussions on sustainability, advanced technologies, and mining value chains. The event will run until Thursday, 16 January.

AND- The forum will feature an invite-only ministerial roundtable and a mineral exploration hub, where discussions on mining and development trends will take place. You can find out more from the event’s detailed brochure (pdf).

WEATHER- Another chilly day in Riyadh, with a high of 18°C and a low of 7°C. In Makkah, temperatures will peak at 32°C before dipping to 17°C. Meanwhile, Jeddah will get a high of 32°C and a low of 22°C.

PSAs-

The new regulations for joint Saudi-Foreign business councils and customs consulting profession licensing controls are up for public discussion on Istitlaa, along with proposed regulations, the National Competitiveness Center said in a post on X.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Riyad Capital IPO moving forward? PIF-backed lender Riyad Bank has reportedly tapped JPMorgan Chase to work on the IPO of its investment banking arm Riyad Capital, Bloomberg Law reports, citing people with knowledge of the matter. The PIF owns a 21.8% stake in Riyad Bank, while the government holds a 10.4% stake.

Riyad Capital could go public “as early as mid-2025” and the firm could be valued at USD 2.5 bn at the time of the transaction, although the size, value, and exact timeline of the IPO remain undecided.

The first spin-off of its kind: An IPO would see Riyad Capital operate as a distinct unit from its parent company, making Riyad Bank the first local lender to spin-off its investment banking unit. Riyad Bank first disclosed its plans for the IPO last April.

#2- The Kingdom is getting ready to enrich, sell uranium: Saudi Arabia is looking to monetize all of its mineral resources, including uranium, and eventually expand its nuclear program to include the radioactive heavy metal, Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said at a conference in Dharan, according to Reuters. “We will enrich it, we will sell it and we will do a ‘yellowcake,’” he said. Enriching uranium for nuclear power comes as the government looks to diversify its energy mix.

SOUND SMART- In industry speak, yellowcake refers to a powdered concentrate of uranium ore, which is used to prepare uranium fuel for nuclear reactors used in power generation.

REMEMBER- The Kingdom submitted a request to the International Atomic Energy Agency back in September 2024 to implement a stricter nuclear oversight program — the Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement — allowing for more thorough inspections into domestic nuclear facilities to ensure they are used only for peaceful purposes.

#3- Ma’aden and Alba scrap merger talks: Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma’aden) and Aluminum Bahrain (Alba) have terminated discussions on a potential merger via share swap after kicking off due diligence in November, Ma’aden said in a filing to Tadawul. No reason was provided for the discontinuation of discussions.

Background: The now-terminated transaction would have seen Ma’aden swapping stakes in its subsidiaries — Ma’aden Aluminium Company, Ma’aden Bauxite and Alumina Company, and related marketing rights— for new shares in Alba amounting to a 51% stake. The story also got ink in Bloomberg.

Still going ahead: Ma’aden inked a separate share purchase agreement in September to acquire Sabic’s entire 20.6% stake in the Bahraini aluminium smelter.

#4- France’s Engie SA is gearing up to compete in Saudi Arabia’s sixth round of renewable energy tenders, in a bid to secure four solar projects with a combined capacity of 3 GW, as well as wind projects totaling 1.5 GW, Engie’s MD Francois Xavier Boul tells Bloomberg. Despite Engie already operating in the Gulf, it faced “aggressive” competition, recently losing a bid last year for 3.7 GW solar contracts in Saudi Arabia. The utility firm is also looking to expand its footprint in the UAE and Egypt, it added.

#5- Saudi Arabia is expected to add 4-5 mn sq ft of office space to its commercial real estate sector in 2H 2025 to meet growing demand, CBRE Head of Consulting for Saudi Arabia Elias Bou Habib told Bloomberg (watch, runtime: 5:48). Despite the anticipated influx of new office space, demand and rental prices are expected to remain robust.

IN CONTEXT- Business relocations to Saudi regional headquarters have spiked office space demand, resulting in 98% occupancy rates and driving rents up 20% on an annual basis, Habib said. Riyadh saw a 31% increase in real estate transactions in 2024, with villa prices up 5% and apartment prices rising 4%, driven by population growth and an influx of expatriates, he added.

#6- Saudi Arabia is among 120 countries that will be affected by new rules limiting US exports of AI chips, Reuters reports. The limits will also apply to the UAE, Israel, Singapore, and several others, while arms-embargoed countries — such as Russia and China — are now banned from receiving any chips at all. Some 18 countries — including the UK, the Netherlands, Japan, and South Korea — are exempt from these restrictions

#7- Yanbu and Riyadh Cement project production cost hikes as fuel prices go up: Yanbu Cement estimated that Aramco’s latest fuel hike will drive a 10% increase to its production cost, while Riyadh Cement estimated a 9.6% increase, according to separate disclosures to Tadawul (here and here).

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Gaza ceasefire breakthrough? Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks in Doha are nearing fruition, officials involved with the talks say, with US President Joe Biden saying they are “on the brink” of a breakthrough. A draft agreement for the exchange of prisoners and the gradual withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza was presented to both sides yesterday, with another round of talks taking place today in Doha. Officials from both sides have confirmed that talks are progressing well. (Bloomberg | Reuters | FT | Semafor)

The goal is now to reach an agreement before US president-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration next week, officials said. Vice President-elect JD Vance said he hopes an agreement could be struck toward the final days of Biden’s administration.

Meanwhile, the US’ new AI export caps are getting plenty of attention: The US imposed export controls on chips used for AI, giving 20 close allies access to chips and restricting access to 120 countries, including China, Iran, and Russia.

The semiconductor industry is not happy with the new export control regime, and neither is the EU. The European Commission said it is “concerned” about the new measures, while industry leaders like Nvidia criticized the move as potentially harmful to “America’s global competitiveness.” (FT | Reuters | WSJ)

Also getting attention:

  • Los Angeles is bracing for “hurricane-level” winds threatening to trigger more wildfires, with a red flag warning out on three areas across Los Angeles and Ventura. (NYT | Reuters | FT)
  • International Court of Justice President Nawaf Salam was appointed Lebanon’s prime minister after securing the majority of votes from the parliament, in another blow to Hezbollah, which was backing caretaker PM Najib Mikati to stay in the role. (FT | Reuters)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

#1- The three-day Real Estate Future Forum kicks off on 27 January at the Four Seasons, Riyadh.

#2- LEAP 2025 will take place between 9-12 February at the Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center in Malham. The tech event will bring together over 1.8k global tech brands, 1k experts and some 680 startups. LEAP 2025 will feature over 300 hours of content across 17 tracks, covering AI, fintech, edtech, smart cities, and more. Co-located with LEAP is DeepFest, a major AI-focused event bringing thought leaders and innovators under one roof.

#3- The eight-day Big 5 Construct Saudi will take place from 15-18 February and 24-27 February at the Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center. The Kingdom’s largest construction event will feature over 2k exhibitors from more than 60 countries, showcasing innovations across the sector. The event is expected to attract over 75k participants.

#4- The UFC returns to the Kingdom on 1 February, kicking off its 2025 collaboration with Riyadh Season, according to Forbes. The main event will see former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya face Nassourdine Imavov. Adesanya, on a two-fight losing streak, needs a win to remain in title contention, while Imavov enters with a four-fight winning streak.The co-main event will see Shara Magomedov square off with Michael “Venom” Page. The card also includes several ranked fighters, with matchups spanning multiple divisions. Full card here.

#5- The Formula One 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix will kick off on 20 April, featuring 50 laps at the 6.174-km Jeddah Corniche Circuit. Tickets are available here.

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