Fitch warned that the Middle East region is entering 2025 “on shaky ground,” against the backdrop of the ongoing war, economic headwinds, and political uncertainty following the US elections, during a webinar earlier this week. The agency expects the region’s economy to grow at c. 1.8% in 2024, down from the 2.3% it penciled in last August, according to Fitch Solutions company BMI’s latest outlook (pdf).

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A rebound is expected next year: The regional economy will pick up to over 3% by next year, according to its forecast.

UAE to lead the region: BMI anticipates the Emirates’ economy to grow at the fastest pace in 2025, anticipated to accelerate to 5.2% in 2025, fueled by increased oil production and the government’s diversification efforts.

REMEMBER- The UAE is set to increase its oil production to 3.5 mn barrels per day (bbl / d) in 2025 after Opec+ raising its quota from the current 2.9 mn bbl / d.

BMI also sees strong growth for Saudi Arabia, forecasting the Kingdom’s economy to make a dramatic rebound from approximately 0.3% in 2024 to around 4.7% in 2025.

Downside risks remain: Potential risks that could hamper growth include Opec’s production cuts failing to lift oil prices, which could hinder diversification efforts in the region, Fitch analysts noted during the webinar.

ALSO WORTH NOTING-

  • Morocco plans to fully float its currency starting 2026, the country’s Central Bank Governor Abdellatif Jouahri said. Morocco intends to gradually remove the current EUR-USD peg and move towards a market-driven currency, with the central bank “technically ready” and preparing the banking system for the transition. (Bloomberg)
  • G7 countries finalized a USD 50 bn loan to shore up Ukraine’s budget and support military and reconstruction efforts. The multilateral loan is backed by income generated from frozen Russian central bank assets. (Bloomberg)
  • Global leaders at IMF and World Bank meetings criticized China’s President Xi Jinping’s recent stimulus package, citing ambiguity as well as a lack of focus on consumer spending and manufacturing overcapacity. Meanwhile, investors are on the lookout for additional fiscal measures out of upcoming meetings between Chinese legislators in November. (Bloomberg)

TASI

11,886

-0.1% (YTD: -0.7%)

MSCI Tadawul 30

1,495

0.0% (YTD: -3.6%)

NomuC

26,818

+1.7% (YTD: +9.3%)

USD : SAR (SAMA)

USD 3.75 Sell

USD 3.75 Buy

Interest rates

5.5% repo

5.0% reverse repo

EGX30

30,553

+0.5% (YTD: +22.7%)

ADX

9,204

+0.1% (YTD: +3.9%)

DFM

4,479

+0.3% (YTD: +10.3%)

S&P 500

5,808

0.0% (YTD: +21.8%)

FTSE 100

8,249

-0.3% (YTD: +6.7%)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,943

+0.2% (YTD: +9.3%)

Brent crude

USD 76.05

+2.3%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.56

+1.5%

Gold

USD 2,755

+0.2%

BTC

USD 67,096

-0.3% (YTD: +58.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.1% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 4.4 bn. The index is down 0.7% YTD.

In the green: Rasan (+10.0%), Arabian Mills (+3.0%) and Talco (+2.4%).

In the red: Al Baha (-6.7%), Uacc (-3.8%) and Cenomi Retail (-3.3%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 1.7% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 63.1 mn. The index is up 9.3% YTD.

In the green: Banan (+29.9%), Taqat (+18.5%) and Sama Water (+15.8%).

In the red: Meyar (-8.2%), Dar Al Markabah (-7.1) and Leaf (-5.9%)

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Alinma Bank will distribute SAR 745.7 mn in dividends to shareholders at SAR 0.3 per share for 3Q 2024, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The distribution date is set for Thursday, 21 November.

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