Aramco could give more than half of secondary offering to foreign investors

Aramco is set to allocate c. 60% of the shares offered in a secondary share sale to foreign investors, Bloomberg reported yesterday, citing sources it says are familiar with the matter. The allotment comes as its secondary offering drew in greater international demand than its blockbuster IPO in 2019 which was left reliant on local buyers.

Newly sold shares will start trading on Tadawul today, after the final allocation of shares took place on Friday, 7 June. Excess subscription funds if any will be refunded by Tuesday, 11 June.

Foreign investors flocked to the offering: More than 50% of the offering was allocated to foreign investors, Reuters reported, citing two sources it says are familiar with the matter. “There were multiple orders from the US, UK, Hong Kong and Japan,” one of the sources said. The offering will see over 120 new foreign investors added to the state-owned oil giant, according to one of the sources. “The overall demand for the offering was greater than USD 65 bn across global blue chip institutions and the domestic retail offering,” the source said.

REMEMBER- Aramco reportedly held roadshows in the US and the UK to shore up demand for its offering.

The oil giant set the final price for its secondary share sale below expectations at SAR 27.25 per share, pricing its stock in the lower half of its proposed range of SAR 26.7 to SAR 29.0 a share, state news agency SPA reported. The pricing indicates that Aramco would raise c. USD 11.2 bn, according to our math. This falls just below the USD 12 bn mark that pundits had initially penciled in for the sale. The offering was 4-5x oversubscribed, Reuters reported, citing a source it says is in the know.

This is the highest-value offering of its kind globally in the last three years, Bloomberg reports.

Aramco could raise even more if a greenshoe option is exercised by its stabilizing manager, Merrill Lynch KSA, who can purchase up to 10% of shares being offered at the set final price “to cover short selling operations resulting from any overallotment of shares.” This means Aramco can raise the stake on offer to 0.7% — up from 0.64% — to raise roughly USD 12.4 bn, according to Reuters.

Merrill Lynch KSA may stabilize the share sale per the applied price stabilization mechanism in IPOs, it said in a statement to Tadawul (pdf). It said the stabilization period will run starting today until Tuesday, 9 July, it said. It set overallottment shares at 154.5 mn shares — or 10% of total offered shares — by the government, which is the over allotment shareholder.

What the pundits are saying: “We like Aramco. It’s selling at a reasonable price and we recommend it for investors as a three-year strategic investment,” Anita Gupta, head of equity strategy at Emirates NBD told Bloomberg, adding that the “dividend yield is bigger than other mega-caps or oil majors.”

BACKGROUND- The transaction comes as the government — which holds an 82% stake in Aramco — looks to unlock non-oil sources of income to plug its budget deficit and push bns of USD worth of gigaprojects out of the pipeline. Think massive investments in sports, AI, tourism, and infrastructure. Proceeds from the sale will likely be “funneled to the Public Investment Fund (PIF)” — which owns a further 16% stake, analysts told Reuters.

ICYMI- The follow-on offering sold out within hours of kicking off last Sunday before wrapping up on Wednesday, 5 June. The institutional tranche of the sale accounted for 90% of the shares on offer, while no more than 10% were allocated to retail investors. The offering was Regulation S compliant, making it easier for global institutional investors to take part. News of the sale was hogging liquidity in the market, as investors held on to funds for fresh paper. Strained liquidity coupled with oil production cuts had pushed Aramco’s shares to their lowest level in over a year.

ADVISORS- SNB Capital is lead manager. HSBC, BofA, Citi, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, and SNB Capital will act as joint global coordinators, bookrunners and financial advisors. Our friends at EFG Hermes KSA will act as domestic bookrunners alongside Al Rajhi Capital, Riyad Capital, and Saudi Fransi Capital. Meanwhile, M. Klein and Company and Moelis will act as independent financial advisors. Meryll Lynch will act as the stabilization manager. White & Case is legal counsel to Aramco, while PwC is auditor. Receiving agents include, Alinma Bank, Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corporation, Arab National Bank, Banque Saudi Fransi, Riyad Bank, Saudi Awwal Bank, Saudi National Bank.