Recap: Day two of the Saudi Capital Market Forum

Setting the tone for the last day of the Saudi Capital Market Forum yesterday was Tadawul Group CEO Khalid Al-Hussan, highlighting the three trends he expects to drive global and local capital markets over the next five years.

The three things: Al Hussan ticked off diversification of offerings at the market level (hedging against volatility of fragile equity markets, he suggested). The other two trends are the monetization of data by market infrastructure companies and global connectivity of exchanges given “stock exchanges do not work in isolation.”

Other key takeaways from yesterday’s fireside chats and 1:1 sessions:

• Foreign investors have strong appetite for Saudi equities;
• Secondary offerings could attract more liquidity to the market, suggesting officials could be pushing out incentives to have more large (usually founding family) shareholders sell down positions;
• Officials want to see more corporate paper and more securitized offerings to add vibrancy to debt capital markets.

WANT TO GO DEEPER? Watch the entire day of discussions, if you’re so inclined (watch,runtime: 7:21:12).

DIVERSIFICATION-

A more diversified capital market is the best way to develop an exchange able to absorb the volatility of local and global markets alike, said Al-Hussan, emphasizing the importance of broadening the exchange's offerings and global connectivity. Last year saw a volatile equity market face several challenges including global instability, geopolitical tensions, high interest rates, and rising inflation, Al-Hussan added. “There has been a drop in IPO volumes by 8% y-o-y with proceeds down by 23% y-o-y,” he said, reflecting on the volatility of equity markets.

TADAWUL’S STRATEGY in a sentence: “We [Tadawul] want to build an advanced capital market,” with a new plan that is focused on infrastructure, equity and capital formation, debt commodities, security services, derivatives and IPOs.

Regulatory bodies are introducing new tools drive growth of capital markets, including the gradual introduction of speculative investments that carry higher risks but potentially higher rewards, said the CMA’s chief for listed companies and investment products, Abdullah Binghannam (LinkedIn). Speculative investments are distinct from more conservative investments, such as bonds or blue-chip stocks, which tend to offer more stable returns over time. Look for options and futures contracts, penny stocks, and maybe tradeable venture capital.

There's also a push to create new classes of shares where different classes of shares provide shareholders with different voting rights, dividend preferences, or liquidation preferences, he added. Classes of preferred stock will be attractive to founders. Binghannam said they could also make it easier for companies to go ahead with mergers and acquisitions and be a useful tool for companies looking to grow at home and abroad.

REMEMBER: The Kingdom's largest lender, Saudi National Bank (SNB), was the latest to debut single stock options (SSOs) on its stocks on Sunday, allowing investors to trade in these contracts for the purpose of hedging against potential losses or speculate on the stock’s price movement to make gains. SSOs were introduced as the third derivative instrument on the Saudi stock exchange in November 2023 to trade on the stocks of four of the largest most liquid companies including Sabic, Al Rajhi Bank, Aramco, and STC.

FOREIGN APPETITE-

The number of qualified foreign investors (QFIs) registered on Tadawul rose to 3.7k by the end of last year, up from 50 in 2017. QIFs now wn c. USD 85 bn worth of Saudi equities, Al-Hussan said.

This was supported by the implementation of 700 reforms on the business and investment fronts, he added. Regulatory reform underpins the Kingdom’s economic development, said Binghannam. “Whereas de-regulation could be a choice in different parts of the world, we believe that international investors are into confidence before everything else, confidence is viewed as the catalyst for international inflows,” he added, suggesting that the Kingdom will continue to push out regulation with a view to making the Saudi market more predicable.

ATTRACTING FRESH LIQUIDITY-

A new framework on what Binghannam called “further market offerings” aims to drive more secondary sales by existing shareholders.

SOUND SMART- This framework aims to increase the portion of shares available for trading freely in the market, he added, explaining that there's a push to raise awareness among companies and shareholders about the significance of having a larger percentage of shares in free float. A larger free float means a company's stock carries more weight in market indices, which in turn attracts more investors to buy shares.

Case in point: Aramco is said to be in talks to hire banks including HSBC, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup as it prepares to revive plans to sell shares in a USD 20 bn secondary offering.

SECURITIZED DEBT + CORPORATE PAPER-

There’s lots of room for Saudi to explore what panelists called the “secondary loan market,” or the sale of packages of debt via securitized bonds.

“Securitization is at early stages,” but serious changes are already underway, said Waleed Mohsen, managing director and head of CEEMEA research at Goldman Sachs, suggesting that securitization could be a good booster for the Kingdom’s debt market.

REFRESHER: Securitization is a financial process where certain types of assets, such as loans or receivables, are pooled together by the original lender and converted into securities that can be sold to other parties — banks or others who want to invest in debt. This allows lenders (including non-bank financial services and banks) to free up capital that would otherwise be tied up in these assets, enabling them to originate more loans and support growth and funding sources. Securities are typically backed by the cash flows generated from the underlying assets.

Corporate paper accounts for a mere 4% of all borrowing by businesses in the Kingdom, said Mohsen, explaining that over 75% of local corporate borrowing is financed by banks versus 50% in Europe and 35% in the US. “Clearly, there has been an uneven reliance on bank debt [for funding].” Mohsen is suggesting that instruments such as corporate bonds contribute to the diversification of ways in which corporates can raise funds.

The pitch for diversification in the debt market: Over the coming two to three years, Goldman Sachs sees local banks issuing over USD 30 bn in loans — excluding the Kingdom’s sovereign and corporate financing needs. The global investment bank is predicting a 6% gap annually in financing requirements, citing data from the Investment Ministry which sees borrowing needs rising 15%, while supply is set to grow at a slower 9%.

Targets set by the CMA: There’s a need to grow the debt capital market where debt securities including securitization and corporate bonds are issued to 18% of GDP, up from the current 4%, said bin Ghanam, adding that in order to ensure efficient allocation of capital, the asset management industry must grow to more than 28% of GDP — currently at 19%.