A five-year battle to keep oil prices high?

There’s plenty to think about this morning on the outlook for oil prices in the short, medium and long term — whatever comes out of COP28 notwithstanding.

SHORT- Oil fell more than 3% yesterday to its lowest level in three months on concerns about oversupply as pundits think US economic data predicts softer demand over the coming months. Rising inflation in the US “speaks to a softening demand picture,” Reuters quotes on pundit as saying.

MEDIUM- OPEC+ oil cuts may last long enough to offset a surplus in 2024,someanalysts believe. Pushed along by Saudi Arabia, the group pledged a 2.2 mn barrel per day cut extending into 1Q 2024, which analysts and traders are now saying is not long enough to prevent an oil supply surplus next year. Saudi Arabia and Russia have suggested that further cuts will be made if necessary.

Hedge funds are bearish on the outlook for crude, Reuters reports, as traders speculate that Saudi and its OPEC+ allies will not further slash output anytime soon.

LONG- Saudi and OPEC+ may now be in the early days of a five-year battle to keep prices high as a glut of new production from the United States (in particular) as well as Guyana and Brazil, according to Rapidan Energy Group, which has a reasonably good track record with its past calls.

The crux of its argument:Global demand for oil “won’t peak for at least another decade,” but supplies outside OPEC are “growing much faster than previously estimated.”