Non-oil private sector on a tear even as cost pressures rise –PMI

The non-oil private sector continued to grow at a red-hot pace in November despite price pressures “accelerating to their highest” in nearly 1.5 years, according to the Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI out yesterday. Demand was strong and new orders grew at the fastest rate since June as participating companies landed “new customers and greater investment spending,” the report said (pdf).

Output rose thanks to a “marked” upturn in sales and job creation continued, even if it slowed a bit from October’s nine-year high.

In numbers: The headline PMI dropped to 57.5 in November down from October’s four-monthhigh of 58.4.

If it dropped, why is the economy still going? The PMI is a gauge, and anything above 50.0 means that business conditions are improving and the (non-oil, private-sector) economy is growing.

Then why did the headline index dip? S&P, which produces the PMI for Riyad Bank, writers that it was thanks to “moderations in the rate of staff and inventory growth, as well as a sharp reduction in delivery times” — not because private-sector growth is cooling.

Non-oil exports fell 13% y-o-y in 3Q 2023, according to figures released by Gastat (pdf) earlier. “The weak performance in exports can be primarily attributed to the petrochemical sectors as this sector represents more than 29% of non-oil exports.” said Naif Al-Ghaith, chief economist at Riyad Bank. Input prices experienced an uptick in November, rising at their quickest rate since June 2022 and propping up the price of final goods and services – an increase that was partially offset by competitive pressures.

Luckily, new orders and output levels are on a roller-coaster that only goes up: The two biggest contributors to the headline index were up in November, with the sub-index for new orders reaching 66.3 from 66.1 a month earlier, marking the highest reading in five months on the back of good market conditions and higher investment spending. Output levels also rose sharply, with the sub-index hitting 61.2 in November from 60.1 in October on the back of higher sales.

Prospects are still looking good: “Firms anticipate a continuous increase in output, fuelled by a robust inflow of new projects… This bodes well for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth and suggests a favorable environment for businesses in various industries.” Al-Gaith added.

AROUND THE REGION- Private-sector optimism in Egypt hit a record low on inflation and currency woes, according to the PM there. In the UAE, robust demand conditions spurred rapid inventory growth in November, with the PMI down fractionally to 57.7 in November from 57.0 the month before.