Saudi Arabia isn’t going to play along with a blanket commitment to phasing out oil. That’s the key message from Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman as business, finance and world leaders gather in the UAE for COP28. “Absolutely not,” Prince Abdulaziz said yesterday in Riyadh when asked in a TV interview whether the Kingdom would agree to calls out of Dubai to phase out (or phase down) hydrocarbon use.

What he said: “I’m not naming names. But those countries who really believe on phasing out and phasing down hydrocarbons, you should come out and put together a plan for how starting the first of January 2024.”

The Kingdom’s position on the “energy transition” is clear: It’s not about the mix of fuels used, it’s about reaching zero emissions — itself a key target of the Kingdom’s economic policy, which sees us using proceeds from fossil fuels to build a diverse, green, globally competitive economy.

The question on COP28 delegates’ minds: Will Saudi accept a change in language — the use of fudge words such as a “shift away” from “unabated” fossil fuel use? Delegates have until Tuesday, 12 December (a week from today) to sort this out: The gathering’s final agreement must be unanimously agreed.

“Petrochemicals are here to stay” even as a decarbonization drive pushes ahead,Prince Abdulaziz said separately at a meeting of the Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association (GPCA) in Doha. He said he sees the industry growing 50% to c. 1.2 tons per year by 2040, with demand for basic chemicals like ethylene and propylene rising by over 60%.

Why petrochemicals are so relevant to the debate: PetChem feedstock accounts for 12% of global oil demand — a share that should grow as demand for plastics and fertilizers rises, according to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Demand for PetChems aer set to account for over a third of the growth in oil demand by 2030, and nearly half by 2050, ahead of industries including aviation and shipping.

Sound smart #1: Neither Prince Abdulaziz nor Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohamed bin Salman have visited Dubai for the climate summit — though both attended COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh. Prince Abdulaziz spoke via video to attendees at the Saudi Green Initiative in Dubai yesterday, and Prince Mohamed currently has no plans to go to Dubai for the climate summit.

Sound smart #2: See Prince Abdulaziz’s remarks as part of a reasonably concerted Arab rejection of calls to dump oil and gas. OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais, a Kuwaiti, once again pushed back hard yesterday on the International Energy Agency’s call to leave oil and gas in the ground. The result, he said, would be “energy chaos,” he said, taking a swipe at what he called the IAE’s “activism.” Al-Ghais was speaking at yesterday’s Saudi Green Forum in Dubai. His remarks came as COP28 presidency and UAE minister Sultan Al Jaber held a presser to address his alleged questioning of climate science.

Wide coverage: Prince Abdulaziz’s remarks are getting plenty of coverage in the international press, with a number of outlets syndicating this report from Bloomberg and another from AFP.

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