Poland’s Orlen terminates a long-term QatarEnergy LNG contract, the first since the war cut Qatari exports

QatarEnergy has lost its first long-term LNG contract to the war. Poland’s Orlen has terminated one of its two long-term LNG supply agreements with QatarEnergy “due to an ongoing force majeure resulting in an inability to meet contractual delivery obligations,” according to a regulatory announcement. The agreement covered 1 mn tons of LNG a year, valued at about EUR 570 mn in 2026, and was due to run until 2034. It stays in force for 60 days after the termination notice. This is the first known termination of a long-term QatarEnergy contract since the war disrupted Qatari exports, Reuters reports.

Orlen had expected deliveries to restart this month: It said in October that it expected Qatari LNG to resume in mid-November. QatarEnergy declared force majeure in March, after attacks on Ras Laffan and as tanker traffic through Hormuz was severely disrupted. The attacks damaged two production trains, taking 12.8 mn tons of annual capacity offline for three to five years.

The canceled contract was priced off oil: It was signed in 2009, and market participants estimate its price at around 16% of Brent, Reuters reports. That’s about USD 15.5/mmBtu at current Brent prices, by our math. Analysts estimate long-term US LNG contracts at around USD 6-7/mmBtu. Orlen will keep taking cargoes under its second QatarEnergy contract, for up to 1 mn tons a year through 2034, which is priced off gas benchmarks.

QatarEnergy can’t swap in its US cargoes: It is buying US LNG as it works around the disruption. But its current contracts require the LNG to come from Qatar, so it can’t automatically substitute US cargoes, according to MEES managing editor Jamie Ingram. As those contracts expire, buyers might renegotiate for more flexible sourcing terms, he told us.

Murban markdown

Adnoc has slashed the premium on its December Murban official selling price by more than 60%, to USD 4 per barrel over the Dubai benchmark, Bloomberg reports, citing traders. Adnoc also trimmed prices for its other main grades. The Murban cut is steeper than Aramco’s last week, when it lowered its December Arab Light price for Asia by USD 2 a barrel.

Gulf rivals are back in the market: Recovering Middle East supply is stirring competition for market share, Bloomberg adds. Through the disruption, Murban could reach buyers through Adnoc’s 1.8 mn bbl / d Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, carrying crude to outside the strait. Now Middle East crude exports, including loadings at Yanbu and Fujairah, have reached 16.6 mn bbl / d, against a pre-war average of 17 mn. Shuttle runs have helped restore those flows as some 60 VLCCs were loading crude inside the Gulf and transferring it to vessels in the Gulf of Oman by late September, up from seven in April.

Prices are falling as supply recovers: Recovering Middle East exports are adding to downward pressure on prices, along with signs the conflict is moving toward de-escalation, Bloomberg reports. Brent fell below USD 90 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since August, after US President Donald Trump signaled he is pursuing a diplomatic resolution.