MENA's wheat buyers need up to 7 mn tons before year-end, and the Black Sea routes that would carry it are under attack

MENA importers may need up to 7 mn tons of wheat by year-end, and exporters’ ports may not be able to ship it in time, Argus reports. Russia and Ukraine still have grain to sell. The region may import 5.56-7.06 mn tons of wheat in November-December, but limited export capacity in the EU, Russia, and Ukraine could make it hard to meet that demand before new-crop wheat arrives from the Southern Hemisphere.

More than 570 vessels have been struck in the Black Sea this year, and at least 40 sailors have been killed, the Financial Times (FT) reports. War-risk cover could reach 15% of a ship’s hull value, almost double the Gulf rate, underwriters told the FT, and owners willing to sail are turning to older vessels that are cheaper to insure.

Egypt is the swing buyer: Its November-December demand is estimated at 2-3.5 mn tons. State buyer Future of Egypt could take 1-1.5 mn tons of milling wheat, and private buyers 1.2-2 mn tons. Algeria’s potential demand is 1.26 mn tons, Morocco’s 900k tons, and Saudi Arabia’s 683k tons. How much Egypt actually buys will shape the European supply balance, and what’s left for other importers in the region, according to Argus. Sellers could ship about 8.3 mn tons, but that includes feed as well as milling wheat, and Russian and Ukrainian sellers are likely to prioritize higher-priced milling grades.

From silo to ship

Ukraine’s Greater Odesa ports handled fewer than 10 ships in September, against roughly 400 in July, and the country’s seaborne agricultural exports fell to 1.4 mn tons in August, about 75% below prewar levels.

The fallback route has become part of the front line. As strikes degraded the Odesa ports, the Danube’s share of cargo handled at Ukrainian ports jumped from around 10% in 1H 2026 to 74% in August, according to Ambrey. Attacks followed, with at least nine merchant vessels struck on the Danube approaches since July, including a grain carrier from Izmail hit on 5 October, killing two crew. Up to 125 vessels are waiting off Sulina, some for as long as 17 days, which leaves them sitting targets for drones, Ambrey says. Many underwriters no longer cover Ukraine port calls at all.

The other routes have limits of their own. Ice in the Baltic could affect Russian and EU ports, and low water on the Danube is already complicating shipments from Ukraine, Argus says. Russia’s Baltic ports have an estimated 7 mn tons a year of capacity, a fraction of the 46.3 mn tons that moved through the Black Sea and Azov last season.

A costly wait

No relief is due until late December, when Argentina and Australia start shipping significant volumes of new-crop wheat, Argus says. Until then, Gulf importers have the purchasing power to compete for alternative cargoes, while more price-sensitive buyers such as Egypt and Jordan face the most procurement and subsidy pressure.

The immediate risk is higher landed costs, freight, and subsidy bills, with outright shortages less likely. MENA depends on two disrupted corridors: the Black Sea for grain, and Hormuz for fertilizer, fuel, and freight.

The Bottleneck takes one limit on how much a system can move, such as berths, ships, power, or paperwork, and asks who is stuck waiting, what the wait costs, and what would widen it.