TODAY: Is Qatar’s LNG supply recovering, or is Hormuz masking a deeper squeeze?

Good morning, ladies and gents. It’s a calm morning on the war front, a busy one everywhere else.

Qatar is moving LNG again — but don't call it a restart just yet. A Qatari cargo reached Pakistan last week after becoming the first known LNG shipment from the country to cross Hormuz since July, and several empty Qatar-linked tankers have moved back toward the Gulf too. Still, treat these as exceptions: strait traffic remains a fraction of pre-war levels, LNG tankers have turned back mid-crossing before, and QatarEnergy is still cancelling contracted deliveries months out.

DP World, meanwhile, is building for a disruption that may outlast the conflict. The UAE giant plans to grow its regional truck fleet by about 40%, to 1k vehicles from 700, and is adding land routes linking Europe, the US, and Asia to the Gulf.

And the Gemini twins keep drifting back toward Suez. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd will reroute four more joint container services — AE5, AE11, AE12, and ME2 — through the canal instead of around the Cape of Good Hope.

The EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum is less than a month away — and here's some of what’s shaping up on the agenda:

• Where AI fits on the list of topics keeping CEOs awake at night
• What AI means for your company, your team, your job, and your family
• What's the AI opportunity for Egypt
• Building the AI infrastructure

And more panels to come.

Join us on 5 October in Cairo. Attendance is by invitation only, and seats are filling up quickly.

Request your invitation here.

Trucks are here to stay

DP World plans to expand its regional truck fleet by about 40% — wagering that Gulf shipping disruption through Hormuz will outlast the war, Bloomberg reports, citing Stephen Whittingham, the company’s COO for freight forwarding in Europe. The Dubai-based ports giant wants to take its fleet to 1k trucks from 700, and is adding land routes linking Europe, the US, and Asia to the Persian Gulf.

The rationale: reopening the strait won’t erase the risk. “I think we’ll never get back to the original normal,” Whittingham said, arguing that lingering uncertainty will keep demand for alternative routes alive.

The road network is already carrying business: DP World launched a trucking service from western Europe to the Gulf via Turkey within days of Hormuz closing. It now handles up to 50 trucks a week, mainly carrying automotive parts and everyday consumer goods, alongside separate sea-and-road services for cargo from Asia and the US, also routed through Turkey.

The larger fleet targets ports built to avoid Hormuz altogether, including Fujairah in the UAE, Salalah in Oman, and Jeddah in Saudi Arabia. Next on the route map would be trucking European cargo to Iraq, then shipping it across the Gulf to the UAE. Talks with Baghdad over a permanent service are ongoing, Whittingham said.

The catch: Going overland costs three to four times as much as shipping by sea. Whittingham nevertheless expects some customers to keep using the service after Hormuz reopens, pointing to the reliability of direct trucking amid shipping disruptions stretching from the Black Sea to the Middle East.

The signal: Trucking had its moment in the crisis — and looks set to keep a bigger role after it. Back in March, we were tracking whether the Gulf could truck its way out, by May, emergency landbridges were operating at scale. The port operator had rerouted more than 350k TEUs overland by July, and this fleet expansion is doubling down on the workaround.

Suez, cautiously

The Gemini twins keep drifting back toward Suez: Shipping giants Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd will reroute four more of their joint container services — AE5, AE11, AE12, and ME2 — through the Suez Canal instead of around the Cape of Good Hope, Reuters reports. Maersk said the switch will shorten transit times as the two carriers continue their gradual return to the Red Sea corridor.

A structural return or a test run? The four services add to a Suez comeback that has been building since July. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd first brought their jointly operated AE15 back through the canal, before the Danish liner returned its MECL and WAF6 services. The two carriers then shifted their AE19 Gemini service back through Suez in August.

The Cape isn't being retired just yet, though: Maersk said any further changes to the Gemini network will remain dependent on stability in the Middle East and the absence of renewed escalation — the same contingency the carriers laid out when they first started moving services back through Suez earlier this summer.

Market watch

Oil prices rose this morning as attacks knocked Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline offline, stoking supply fears, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures gained USD 1.37 to USD 107.05 / bbl by 04.06 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased USD 1.53 to USD 102.92 / bbl.

The Baltic Index extends losses: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — fell 1.8% to 3,445 points on Monday. The capesize index dipped 2.8% to 5,912 points, while the panamax was down 0.4% to 1,725 points. The smaller supramax inched up 0.4% to 1,725 points.

***

YOU’RE READING EnterpriseAM Logistics, the essential MENA publication for senior execs who care about the industry that connects producers and retailers to global markets. We’re out Monday through Thursday by 10:15am in Cairo and Riyadh, and 11:15am in the UAE.

EnterpriseAM Logistics is available without charge thanks to the generous support of our friends at Hassan Allam Utilities and Transmar.

Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy of EnterpriseAM Logistics.

Want to send us a story idea, request coverage, ask for a correction, or otherwise get in touch? Reach out to us on [email protected].

DID YOU KNOW that we also cover Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE? ***