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What kind of market appetite can we expect for KSA’s maiden green bond?

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

TODAY: The great debate of fossil fuels vs renewables keeps going + Hurricane Ian hits Florida

Good morning, wonderful people, and happy THURSDAY. We have a packed issue for you as September draws to a close.

THE BIG CLIMATE STORY in our corner of the world- It’s still KSA’s maiden green bond issuance. We already know that investors are getting calls from the investment bankers — what might appetite look like? We talked to analysts to find out.

ALSO- The UAE and Oman are discussing the investment of AED 30 bn (USD 8.1 bn) in renewable energy and infrastructure projects in Oman. Abu Dhabi wealth fund ADQ and the Oman Investment Authority identified “preliminary” targets for investment in sectors that include hydrogen, solar, wind power and others.

^^We have chapter and verse on these stories and more in the news well below.

SMART POLICY- The Dubai Sustainable Finance Working Group launched a self assessment tool allowing companies to track their ESG progress, the Dubai International Financial Center said in a statement on Tuesday.

THE GREAT DEBATE-

The UAE is not letting go of fossil fuels, it reminds us once more: “As long as the world needs oil and gas, we’re going to give it to them,” UAE Climate Change and Environment Minister Mariam Al Mheiri told CNBC yesterday. The minister made the comments when asked about the UAE’s decision to sell (albeit small amounts of) LNG to Germany during German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s visit to the GCC earlier this week.

The UAE isn’t the only Gulf country to have recently defended its fossil fuel industry: Both Qatar and Saudi Arabia have mounted a defense of their continued reliance on oil and gas in recent days and cautioned against an aggressive transition into renewables. We reported yesterday on how Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad bin Sherida Al Kaabi deemed the “cancellation” of hydrocarbons as “unrealistic” and harmful for the green transition. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser made similar comments earlier this month.

The argument? Renewables, they say, are still not able to provide a stable source of energy capable of replacing fossil fuels across the world. Nasser last week pointed to the still-unfolding energy crisis and blamed a fall in new investment in oil and gas production. Fossil fuels will remain a part of the energy mix while the world builds out its renewables capacity, upgrades its infrastructure, and develops technology. “It’s really important that economic growth, energy security and climate action must be worked at together,” Al Mheiri told CNBC.

Feet in both camps: The three countries are some of the world’s biggest oil and gas producers — but they’re also investing heavily in the energy transition and updating production and emissions targets (though keeping to them is proving difficult for some).

Plot twist: Both Saudi and the UAE are trying to use renewables and efficiency measures to lower the carbon footprint of producing hydrocarbons, as we reported this week. Yesterday, Bloomberg suggested that the UAE may be using CO2 captured from blue ammonia production to extract fossil fuels. The business information service also quotes an “independent clean energy analyst” that argues Aramco and Sabic pushed the envelope by using carbon offsetting rather than actually capturing the CO2 produced through the making of blue ammonia.


THE BIG CLIMATE STORY OUTSIDE THE REGION-

One of the most powerful storms to hit the United States in decades: Hurricane Ian made landfall in Florida overnight, multiple media outlets report. The hurricane had caused a total blackout and left two dead in Cuba, before moving on to Florida, the BBC reported. Although it was downgraded to category three from “just-shy of category five” when it made landfall, Ian is proving to be “one of the strongest storms ever to strike Florida,” the New York Times reports. Some 1.8 mn people have no electricity right now and a storm surge of nearly 4 meters “submerged cars, knocked over houses and trapped residents near where the hurricane came ashore west of Fort Myers.”

Ian is leading the front pages in the United States and getting plenty of attention in Europe, too, where at dispatch it was also the top story. Reuters | The Guardian | NPR | Figaro.

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YOU’RE READING ENTERPRISE CLIMATE, the essential regional publication for senior execs who care about the world’s most important industry. Enterprise Climate covers everything from finance and tech to regulation, products and policy across the Middle East and North Africa. In a nod to the growing geographical ambitions of companies in our corner of the world, we also include an overview of the big trends and data points in nearby countries, including Africa and southern Europe.

Enterprise Climate is published at 4am CLT / 5am Riyadh / 6am UAE Monday through Thursday by Enterprise, the folks who bring you Enterprise Egypt, your essential 6am and 3pm read on business, finance, policy and economy in Egypt and emerging markets.

Subscribe to Enterprise Climate here or reach out to us on climate@enterprisemea.com with comments, suggestions and story tips.

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HAPPENING TODAY-

The American University in Cairo and UNICEF Egypt are jointly hosting a seminar entitled on “shifting behaviors to address climate change in Egypt” today at AUC’s New Cairo Campus. The seminar will look at how Egypt can use evidence-based solutions to address climate change and ensure financing and resources are effectively allocated. Attending the event: UN Climate Change High-Level Champion for Egypt Mahmoud Mohieldin, Egypt’s Environment Minister Yasmine Fouad and IMF executive director Jeremy Hopkins. You can register here.

Fitch Solutions is hosting a webinar on Saudi Arabia’s energy transformation today. You can register here.

It’s the second and final day of the World Green Economy Summit (WGES) in Dubai. The first day of the event saw speakers and officials addressing the MENA region’s lack of access to climate financing. Part of the problem was attributed to the need for nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in order to unlock financing.

WGES also saw the launch of the newly formed “Global Alliance on Green Economy,” WAM reports. The alliance is designed to bring together countries to support green economy transition projects and exchange knowledge on green project implementation.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Green Energy Africa conference will run next Wednesday-Thursday, 4-5 October in Cape Town, South Africa. The event aims to bring together executives, investors, utility firms, and government leaders to drive investment in Africa’s renewable and low carbon sector. You can register for the event here.

Further down the line, the International Exhibition of Renewable Energies, Clean Energies andSustainable Development will take place from 24-26 October in Oran, Algeria. The event will host a number of conferences focusing on energy efficiency and energy saving, startups’ role in the energy transition, and the bankability of renewable energy projects.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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CLIMATE FINANCE

What kind of market appetite can we expect for KSA’s maiden green bond issuance?

KSA is taking its maiden green bond to market — but will there be investor appetite? Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), is moving forward with plans to issue its first green bond, with investment bankers apparently now on the phones to investors. But with issuance volumes in the region plunging this year on the back of market volatility, how will the bond be received by investors? Enterprise Climate spoke to EFG Hermes’ head of Macroeconomic Research Mohamed Abu Basha and Arqaam Capital’s Associate Director Noaman Khalid to get a sense of expectations.

There’s definite appetite in the market for MENA green bonds, illustrated by the success of Egypt’s sovereign issuance in 2020 and CIB’s corporate issuance the year after, Abu Basha tells Enterprise Climate. “Both went very well and they ended up issuing more than initially planned. I think the market would have welcomed further issuances,” says Abu Basha.

The market has changed a lot since then: Volatility in the global financial markets has the number of issuances in the region plunge in 2022. Sales were down 80% y-o-y in the first half of the year as issuers ⁠— including the PIF ⁠— held fire waiting for conditions to improve. “For most emerging and frontier economies, international markets are almost completely closed now. They cannot issue,” Abu Basha notes.

That hasn’t stopped everyone: Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) raised USD 500 mn in a green bond sale earlier this month — an issuance that was almost 4x oversubscribed, demonstrating strong investor demand. “That gives a bit of a hint on what to expect” of the PIF offering, Abu Basha says.

Saudi Arabia is well-positioned: With activity in the global bond market currently very limited, exposure to green bonds and other issuances is appealing, while Saudi Arabia’s strong economy — backed by high oil prices, increased economic diversification, and strong investment flows — will also play a big role in drawing investors, says Khalid.

Rating agencies like the PIF: The PIF’s issuance is likely to be a very high-rated bond, which will also be welcomed by the market, Abu Basha says. Rating agencies have assigned the fund investment-grade credit ratings, with Moody’s handing it an A1 and Fitch an A.

Expect plenty of interest outside our corner of the world: “I don’t think [appetite] will be limited to regional players. There will be quite a lot of interest on the international level,” says Abu Basha. The global rise of ESG funds — and even normal funds with mandatory ESG guidelines — will be one factor fueling this, he says. Investors will be looking to diversify their portfolios — both geographically and in terms of exposure to green issuances, says Khalid. For European and US investors in particular, “MENA will give them new exposure from a portfolio diversification point of view,” he adds. ACDB’s issuance drew over USD 1.9 bn in orders from a mix of regional and international investors, with strong demand from Europe.

Tightening financial conditions are unlikely to weigh on the sale: Even considering the impact of rising interest rates around the world, there’s likely to be high market interest — and available funding — for this kind of high-grade issuance, given there have been relatively few such issuances in a while, according to Abu Basha.

The eye of the storm: With interest rates expected to rise significantly before the end of the year and growing fears of a global recession, this could be good timing for the issuance, Khalid says.

What can we expect pricing on PIF’s bond to be like? Khalid expects the five-year bond to carry a yield of 5-5.2%. “If we assume another two or three rate hikes will take place, they could be factored into the pricing itself,” he said. The PIF’s slightly weaker credit rating means that the bond could be priced higher than the 115-bps spread priced for ADCB’s five-year bond, though higher coverage and volume could narrow this, Khalid adds.

Green finance is becoming a thing in MENA, Abu Basha tells us. Using green financial instruments allows GCC countries to lessen their reliance on hydrocarbons and keep investing renewables, he says. They’re another way for countries and businesses to raise money while allowing economies to diversify their funding sources: “KSA and PIF have a lot of equity and can invest [widely], but for sure they’d also like to entertain some debt financing — and this avenue can give them that.”

A FIRST LOOK AT ITS FINANCES-

The PIF has offered potential investors a look at its finances as it takes the bond to market, according to the Wall Street Journal, which got hold of a copy of the prospectus. The USD 606 bn sovereign wealth fund revealed that its total shareholder returns averaged 12% annually in the past five years, since Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman took control of the fund in 2017. In the same period, “the total return on the S&P 500 index is roughly 60%, while the Saudi stock market index, where the PIF has the bulk of its portfolio, is up 52%,” the WSJ writes.

Other facts about PIF, drawn from the Journal story:

  • The fund returned about 3% per year before MbS revamped it;
  • PIF has assets under management of about USD 606 bn;
  • 69% of assets are in Saudi and the GCC;
  • It has created more than 500k jobs since MbS became involved;
  • It has deployed USD 2 bn in capital in infrastructure, manufacturing, logistics and retail in a co-investment agreement with Russia’s SWF.
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INVESTMENT WATCH

Abu Dhabi, Oman wealth funds could invest USD 8.1 bn in Oman

Green energy + transport investment were at the forefront of MBZ’s visit to Oman: The UAE and Oman could work together to channel more than AED 30 bn (USD 8.1 bn) into renewable energy and infrastructure projects in Oman, Abu Dhabi wealth fund ADQ said in a statement yesterday. The fund and the Oman Investment Authority (OIA) have identified “preliminary” targets for investment in sectors that include hydrogen, solar and wind power, as well as green aluminum, steel and water and electricity transmission lines, it said, without disclosing further details.

MBZ in Oman: Talks between the two wealth funds came during UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed’s visit to the Sultanate this week which was aimed at strengthening trade and investment ties between the two countries.

ADQ + OIA know each other well: The two sovereign funds recently signed a AED 10 bn (USD 2.7 bn) investment partnership.

Oman has big green hydrogen plans: The government aims to produce 10 GW of hydrogen by 2030 and 30 GW by 2040, and has announced several large-scale wind and solar-powered hydrogen projects over the past 18 months.

But more investment in other renewables is needed: The country recently downgraded its 2030 target, and now expects to source 20% of its electricity from renewables by the end of the decade, down from 30% previously.

Also from the visit:

  • From the UAE to Sohar: Railway operator Oman Rail and UAE’s Etihad Rail agreed to build a USD 3 bn railway connecting the UAE to Sohar port, the Abu Dhabi media office said yesterday.
  • AED for Omani tech firms: ADQ and OIA subsidiary ITHCA signed an MoU to establish an AED 592 mn (USD 162 mn) VC fund targeting high-growth tech companies in the Sultanate.
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LEGISLATION WATCH

Kuwait wants owners of solar panels to be able to sell power to the grid

Kuwait is working on a solar feed-in tariff: Owners of solar panels could soon be able to sell unused power back to the national grid under a new framework being drawn up by the Electricity and Water Ministry. Plans for a feed-in tariff would see the government purchase surplus electricity produced from solar panels and feed it back to the grid, Minister Ali Al Mousa said yesterday in statements picked up by Kuwaiti news outlet Al Anba.

The rationale: Feed-in tariffs provide an additional incentive for households and business owners to purchase solar panels or wind turbines by offering them a way to generate income from their investment. The offtaker — usually energy suppliers or governments — offer to purchase units of power at a fixed rate per KWh, helping them to offset existing utility bills and break-even faster.

The aim: Kuwait wants solar panels on 10% of residential, commercial, and government buildings in the initial phase of the program, Al Mousa said yesterday. This would provide around 3% of the country’s electricity needs, save the country 720k barrels of oil every year, and reduce annual carbon emissions by 300k tons, he said.

There’s still a lot we don’t know: The Kuwaiti government is yet to release the details of how the scheme will work, including how the tariffs will be structured, the rates and how long they will last for.

What’s next: The plan is being discussed with regulatory bodies for approval, according to the newspaper.

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Hassan Allam completes solar PV plant for COP27 + Jordan wants to turn Aqaba into regional logistics hub

Egypt’s Hassan Allam Utilities completes 5 MW solar PV plant in Sharm El Sheikh: The investment and development arm of Egypt’s Hassan Allam Holding completed the construction of its 5 MW solar plant in Sharm El Sheikh, it said in a statement (pdf) out overnight. The plant was partially financed by Afreximbank and will generate over 10 GWh of power each year. The project “is the first to reach completion among other projects awarded under the [Grid to Power COP27] scheme”, the statement notes.

Jordan to turn Aqaba port into regional logistics hub with renewable energy projects: Jordanian state-owned utilities and infrastructure firm Aqaba Development Corporation inked a USD 242 mn agreement with APM Terminals Bahrain to turn Aqaba port into a regional logistics hub, state news agency Petra reported yesterday. Some of the funds will be earmarked for renewable energy and emission-reduction projects, it said, without providing further details.

OTHER STORIES WORTH KNOWING ABOUT THIS MORNING-

  • Oman’s integrated logistics services provider Asyad announced a plan to lower carbon emissions generated by the sultanate's shipping industry by 2030, the company’s CEO announced at an event, Zawya reported yesterday. The company’s strategy could see its phase out fuel oil in favor of LNG and bio-methane, though new infrastructure and a regulatory framework needs to be in place before this can happen, he said.
  • Tunisia’s National Agency for Energy Conservation and Egypt’s Regional Center for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency signed MoUs to collaborate on renewable energy and energy efficiency programs in Tunisia, according to a statement Monday.
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ON YOUR WAY OUT

Climate change is making birds less colorful

Introducing: the lesser-spotted grayscale tit: Our latest climate change casualty may be the bright colors of our birds, a 15-year study on a bird known as the blue tit finds. The study concludes that a lack of rainfall and an increase in temperature has caused the climate-induced evolutionary change. The discoloration could have detrimental impacts on the longevity of the species, according to the lead author of the study. “Traits such as coloring function as signals to indicate to other individuals the quality of the specimen. They are decisive, for example, when it comes to breeding,” he detailed.


SEPTEMBER

27-29 September (Tuesday-Thursday): Wetex and Dubai Solar Show, UAE.

28-29 September (Wednesday-Thursday): World Green Economy Summit (WGES), UAE.

28-29 September (Wednesday- Thursday): Saudi Maritime Congress, Dhahran Expo, Dammam, Saudi Arabia.

28-30 September (Wednesday-Friday): Ethio Weetex- Water, Energy, Electricity, Renewable (Solar, Wind) Energy, Technology Exhibition, Millennium Hall, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

OCTOBER

4-5 October (Tuesday- Wednesday): Green Energy Africa, Cape Town International Convention Centre 2, South Africa.

16-21 October (Sunday-Friday): Arab Conference of Plant Protection, Le Royal Hotel, Hammamet, Tunisia.

24-26 October (Monday-Wednesday): International Exhibition of Renewable Energies Clean Energies and Sustainable Development, Centre Des Conventions Mohammed Ben Ahmed, Oran, Algeria.

31 October (Monday): Deadline for proposals for Jordan’s USD 2 bn Aqaba-Amman desalination project.

Approval of EU draft document pushing countries participating in COP27 to to improve their climate change targets.

NOVEMBER

Sustainability Forum Middle East is taking place in Bahrain.

Nigeria hopes to secure USD 10 bn support package for green energy transition before COP27.

7-18 November (Monday-Friday): Egypt will host COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh.

23-24 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Global Conference on Sustainable Partnerships, The Ritz-Carlton, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Deadline of bid submissions for the Ras Mohaisen - Baha – Makkah Independent Water Transmission Pipeline in Saudi Arabia.

COP27 sub-events:

Terra Carta Action Forum (2 days) organized by the Prince of Wales’ Sustainable Markets Initiative.

UNFCCC’s capacity building hub.

DECEMBER

13-15 December (Tuesday-Thursday): International Renewable Energy Congress, Hammamet, Tunisia.

15 December (Thursday) TheUN’s 15th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP15), Montreal, Canada.

JANUARY 2023

14-21 January (Saturday-Saturday): Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week takes place in the UAE.

16-18 January (Monday-Wednesday): EcoWASTE, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center (ADNEC), UAE.

FEBRUARY 2023

6-8 February (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi International Marine Exhibition and Conference, Hilton Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

The second edition of The Arab Green Summit (TAGS), Dubai, UAE

MARCH 2023

15-19 March (Wednesday-Sunday): Qatar International Agricultural and Environmental Exhibition, Doha, Qatar.

MAY 2023

1-4 May (Monday-Wednesday): Arabian Travel Market (ATM), Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai, UAE

JUNE 2023

1-3 June (Thursday-Saturday): Envirotec and Energie Expo, UTICA, Tunis, Tunisia.

SEPTEMBER 2023

Chariot Limited and Total Eren’s feasibility study on a 10 GW green hydrogen plant in Mauritania to be completed.

NOVEMBER 2023

6-17 November (Monday-Friday): The UAE will host COP28.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

End-2022

KSA’s Neom wants to tender three concrete water reservoir projects to up its water storage capacity by 6 mn liters.

2023

Early 2023: Egypt’s KarmSolar to launch KarmCharge, the company’s EV charging venture.

Mid-2023: Sale of Sembcorp Energy India Limited to consortium of Omani investors to close.

Phase C of the 900-MW of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park in Dubai to be completed.

Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic) steam cracker furnace powered by renewable energy to come online.

2024

End-2024: Emirati Masdar’s 500 MW wind farm in Uzbekistan to begin commercial operations.

QatarEnergy’s industrial cities solar power project will start electricity production.

First 1.5 GW phase of Morocco’s Xlinks solar and wind energy project to be operational.

2025

Second 1.5 GW phase of Morocco’s Xlinks solar and wind energy project to be operational.

UAE to have over 1k EV charging stations installed.

2026

1Q 2026: QatarEnergy’s USD 1 bn blue ammonia plant to be completed.

End-2026: HSBC Bahrain to eliminate single-use PVC plastic cards.

Iraq’s Mass Group Holding wants to invest EUR 1 bn on its thermal plant Mintia in Romania to have 62% of run on renewable energy, while expanding its energy capacity to at least 1.29k MWh.

2027

MENA’s district cooling market is expected to reach USD 15 bn.

2030

UAE’s Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) wants to provide AED 35 bn in green financing.

UAE targets 14 GW in clean energy capacity.

Tunisia targets 30% of renewables in its energy mix.

Qatar wants to generate USD 17 bn from its circular economy, creating 9k-19k jobs.

Morocco’s Xlinks solar and wind energy project to generate 10.5 GW of energy.

2035

Qatar to capture up to 11 mn tons of CO2 annually.

2045

Qatar’s Public Works Authority’s (Ashghal) USD 1.5 bn sewage treatment facility to reach 600k cm/d capacity.

2060

Nigeria aims to achieve its net-zero emissions target.

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