Good morning, folks. The news cycle has slowed mid-week, but we have a few updates emerging from Bonn and what to expect from the conference which serves as a scene setter for COP.
THE BIG CLIMATE STORY OUTSIDE THE REGION- Climate change ramped up the intensity of last month’s Brazil flooding: World Weather Attribution scientists have estimated that climate change caused recent flooding in southern Brazil twice as likely with heavy rains also intensified by the El Nino phenomenon. The researchers estimate climate change driven factors intensified the natural event by 6-9%. Last month’s flooding in Rio Grande do Sul was the worst natural disaster in the region’s history, causing the displacement of almost 580k residents and leading to over 170 fatalities.
The story got ink in Reuters, The New York Times, Bloomberg, and The Guardian.
HAPPENING TODAY-
The Bonds, Loans & Sukuk Middle East event is kicking off today in Dubai and will conclude tomorrow. Billed as the Middle East's largest corporate and investment banking event, it serves as a key meeting point for those active in the region's capital markets. Over 1.4k governments, corporates, investors, banks, law firms, regulators and service providers as well as more than 75 expert speakers will be in attendance.
ALSO- Baku Energy Week kicks off today in Azerbaijan and will run through to Thursday. Around 300 companies — including UAE’s Masdar — from 37 countries will participate in the Caspian International Energy conference and Green Energy Exhibition, discussing issues like energy security, energy production, and transportation. Baku will host COP29 this year.
COP WATCH-
COP28 assembles technical group: The COP28 presidency has announced the launch of a Technical Cooperation Collaborative (TCC) group aimed at helping countries deliver the objectives of the COP28 Declaration on Food and Agriculture, according to a press release. The declaration — which calls on the protection of vulnerable populations and addresses the relationship between food systems and climate change — was endorsed by 159 countries which account for 80% of the world's agricultural GDP. The TCC was founded by several partners including Italy, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the World Bank at the Bonn Climate Change Conference, which kicked off yesterday.
There’s a lot riding on the Bonn conference: Countries “cannot afford to stumble” during current talks in Bonn in order to make “serious progress on finance,” head of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Simon Stiell said in a speech. The conference marks the halfway point to COP29 and the first climate talks since COP28, according to the National.
What to expect at Bonn: Around 6k delegates from almost 200 countries have come together for the Bonn conference which will run until 13 June. The talks conducted at the event set the stage for the upcoming COP29 while establishing means of monitoring the implementation of the agreements made at the previous COP. Main topics of discussion will include climate finance, action and adaptation plans, submission of transparency reports, and how to phase out fossil fuels.
Will history repeat itself? Last year’s conference ended with diplomats making progress on setting an agenda, but failing to take robust climate action. The outcome of the talks, which saw countries only able to agree on an agenda on the second-to-last day, saw a notable omission of the “mitigation work program,” which would have opened talks on how to accelerate emission cuts and raise funds to help developing countries deploy clean energy. The conclusion of the conference foreshadowed the controversial ending of COP28.
WATCH THIS SPACE-
#1- Egypt’s government is reportedly mulling plans to put in place a new tax on carbon emissions from petroleum products, Asharq Business reported, citing a 7-year tax policy document it has seen. The proposed tax will be based upon the “cost of environmental damage” — i.e, a direct tax on emissions — and not the quantity of petroleum products as done currently.
Why now? The proposed tax comes in response to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) that is set to fully go into effect starting 2026, which could have a considerable impact on Egypt’s exports — particularly from the country’s notoriously energy-intensive steel, aluminum, cement, and fertilizer industries. The carbon border tax will make up the difference between the local carbon price — if there is one — and the EU’s carbon price, meaning that if Egypt doesn’t tax the carbon on EU-bound imports, the EU will. .
The gov’t says you shouldn’t believe everything you read: The tax policy document for 2024-2030 circulating on social media is a months-old “initial concept” that has now gone through revisions, Egyptian Finance Minister Mohamed Maait clarified in a statement. The document laying out new taxation policies is still in the works and will be opened up for community dialogue in the “coming weeks.”
#2- Key construction on Oman’s Manah 1 solar farm underway: Wadi Noor Solar Power Company — a consortium comprising French power utility EDF Renewables and Korea Western Power (Kowepco) — will begin installing the solar PV modules for its 500 MW Manah 1 Solar project in Oman next month, Oman Daily Observer reports. The plant — under construction since September — is set to begin commercial operations by 1Q 2025.
The details: Over 1 mn panels — which are being imported from Chinese manufacturer JA Solar — are currently arriving at the project site, and are expected to be installed over the next few months. The panel’s supporting structures are currently being built on a 7.8 sqkm plot of land where the station will be located, consortium CEO Yahya al Rawahi told the Observer adding that the consortium aims to source at least 20% of goods and services locally during the EPC phase, including local workforce employment and subcontracting. A new 400-kilovolt grid station in Manah already began operating last month to support the solar project.
About the tech: The project will use bifacial modules, which are able to generate power from both their top and bottom faces, CEO of Wadi Noor Solar Power Company — the company developing the project — Yahya al Rawahi told the Observer. “There are 2 bin class capacities for the Manah 1 project: 585 W and 590 W modules. The PV modules will be mounted on single axis trackers to maximize power generation throughout the day,” he said. The modules will also use automated single-axis trackers and cleaning robots.
REMEMBER- Oman’s Manah 1 reached financial close earlier this year: The consortium said it had reached financial close on the Manah 1 project back in January. The project's funding will be obtained from local and foreign banks, including Korea’s Export-Import Bank, Société Générale, and Muscat Bank, which it secured USD 301.8 mn from last month.
#3- Existing fossil fuel projects are sufficient to meet the growing global energy need, according to a new study by the University College London and the International Institute for Sustainable Development. The research calls for the cessation of new projects suggesting that existing oil, gas, and coal reserves are sufficient as the global energy sector pivots towards renewable sources, aligning with the 1.5 °C target. “The study is the first peer-reviewed paper published in a scientific journal to argue that no more fossil fuel projects are needed as renewable energy sources take up the demand,” according to FT.
So what can be done? The researchers argue that stopping new projects is more feasible economically, politically, and legally than shutting down existing ones. They suggest that governments should implement bans on new fossil fuel projects and that civil society should advocate for these bans. This approach would foster the establishment of a global ‘No New Fossil’ norm. While the International Energy Organization has made similar conclusions on ceasing oil production, Big Oil leaders including Aramco still believe that global oil demand won’t peak soon.
DANGER ZONE-
Climate-vulnerable countries face doubling debt payments since pandemic: Debt payments by the 50 countries most vulnerable to climate change have doubled since the coronavirus pandemic, reaching their highest levels in over 30 years, according to research by UK-based organization Debt Justice. These countries will spend four times more on external debt payments in 2024 than in 2010, significantly hindering their ability to invest in climate emergency measures.
Urgent debt relief is needed: These nations now spend 15.5% of government revenues on external debt, up from less than 8% before the pandemic and 4% in 2010, Debt Justice found using data from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Of the debt payments made by these countries, 38% are to private lenders, 35% to multilateral institutions, 14% to China, and 13% to other governments.
What’s behind the debt crisis? The end of pandemic debt suspension, a rise in global interest rates, and the strong USD magnifying the size of external debt payments (which are primarily owed in USD), have caused the new debt crisis for climate-vulnerable countries.
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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-
Turkey will host the International Conference on European Energy Market from Monday, 10 June to Wednesday, 12 June in Istanbul. The three-day event will gather experts from scientific, industry, and policy sectors for discussions on various energy market-related topics. The conference covers themes including energy modeling, market design, regulatory policies, and climate change.
Morocco will host the Morocco Energy Week Summit from Tuesday, 11 June to Thursday, 12 June in Marrakech. The event will gather Morocco's leading energy players, companies and developers alongside financiers and implementation experts to discuss the country’s green transition.
Spain will host the Connecting Green Hydrogen Europe conference from Tuesday, 25 June to Thursday, 27 June in Madrid. The event will see around 5k attendees including industry leaders, energy ministers, and executives to explore solutions, new technologies, and transformative advancements to advance the hydrogen industry.
Saudi Arabia will host the Global EV and Mobility Tech Forum from Wednesday, 10 July to Thursday, 11 July in Riyadh. The event will bring together policymakers, NGOs, and startups.
Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.


