Good morning, friends. We have an absolutely jampacked issue for you this morning with all the need-to-know essentials from the first few days of COP28 and other climate industry updates from the region, but first…
THE 411 GUIDE- Here’s a handy guide (pdf) for the main thematic days and what to expect. Head to the official events schedule for a full rundown of all the panels, workshops, discussions, debates, and keynote speeches.
DAYS TO LOOK FORWARD TO-
5 December: Energy and Industry + Just Transition
6 December: Transport
10 December: Food, Agriculture, and Water
10-11 December: Final Negotiations
HAPPENING TODAY-Finance and Trade Day. Discussions will focus on three key aspects: scaling up efforts, improving access, and enhancing affordability. Stakeholders will explore reforms to the international financial system, enhanced delivery of concessional support, the development of sustainable finance markets, and voluntary carbon markets.
THE BIG CLIMATE STORY EVERYWHERE- The loss and damage fund is operational: 200 countries participating at the UN climate summit have signed off on operationalizing the long-awaited loss and damage fund established a year ago at COP27. The fund is set up to finance adaptation and mitigation efforts in climate vulnerable countries facing hurricanes, floods, droughts, and rising sea levels. The UAE, Germany, US, UK, the EU, Portugal, Spain, Canada, and Japan have all pledged amounts to the fund. We have all the details on the story in the news well, below.
The story made headlines in the international press:Reuters | BBC | The Guardian | CNNABC News | CNBC | The Financial Times | The Washington Post | The New York Times | Deutsche Welle | France 24 | Associated Press
A BRIEF LOOK AT COPLAND- Al Jaber sets COP28 in motion with a plea for flexibility:UAE’s Sultan Al Jaber launched the two-week climate with his opening statement on Thursday, officially assuming the role of COP28 President-Designate in the formal passing of the gavel from his Egyptian predecessor, COP27 president Sameh Shoukry. In a 20-minute speech (watch, runtime: 20:00), Al Jaber urges delegates to be flexible in their negotiations and urged for inclusion of the fossil fuel industry in negotiations.
Follow the leader? Al Jaber said in his speech that oil and gas companies “can lead the way” in the green energy transition, pointing to the minor steps that the sector has reluctantly taken such as committing to net-zero methane emissions by 2030, and adopting net-zero by 2050 targets. Al Jaber admits that this is “not enough”, while also pointing to the responsibility of high-emitting sectors like heavy transportation, aluminum, steel, and cement to “accelerate decarbonization at scale.” Earlier this year, fossil fuel companies including Shell excluded end-user (Scope 3) emissions from its climate targets, thus failing to account for up to 95% of its emissions.
More fuel on the fire: The President-Designate reportedly claimed there is “no science” that proves a phase-out of fossil fuel production is needed to restrict global heating to 1.5 C, and that a phase out would not allow sustainable development “unless you want to take the world back into caves,” The Guardian reports, citing comments made by Al Jaber at a live online event held last month. Al Jaber and the UAE have been championing the phase-out of fossil fuel emissions through ramping up carbon capture, despite climate experts and the UN concluding that this is not feasible and unrealistic.
Methane targets are making a buzz: “Let me also encourage countries to establish near zero methane emission targets, as part of the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions,” Al Jaber said. This “new road” starts with a decision on the Global Stocktake, according to the COP28 President, who is calling for an ambitious outcome that “corrects course and accelerates action to 2030.” According to Al Jaber, the UAE Presidency is also committed to “unlocking finance to ensure that the global south does not have to choose between development and climate action,” especially with regards to adaptation where an agreement on a robust global framework is on the table.
RUMOR HAS IT… The COP28 global climate policy draft off to a rough start: The COP28 presidency’s preliminary draft of the Global Stocktake (GST) indicates that there is a lack of consensus on the global climate policy front, The National reports. The verdict — set to measure the achieved progress on implementing the Paris Agreement targets for the first time since 2015 — reportedly leaves out most areas of contention, including unblocking climate finance and resolutely phasing down fossil fuel-powered energy, signaling possible divergence in the imminent climate negotiations.
THE CRITICS ARE STILL LOUD- COP28 is predicted to score less than 40% in expected level of progress towards climate targets set in Paris, according to a BloombergNEF report released on Thursday. The research organization identified 10 areas governments need to take action on at the climate conference in order to “take a meaningful step toward the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement,” Bloomberg wrote.
What are the 10 key areas? BloombergNEF estimated the level of progress at the Dubai climate summit across 10 goals weighted based on importance and urgency. The 10 goals are: setting 1.5 C-aligned 2030 emissions goals; an effective stocktake on global Paris progress; agreeing on a fossil-fuel phase out; agreeing on an energy transition package; setting a detailed adaptation plan; staying on track 2025 adaptation finance target; achieving the USD 100 bn pledge; operationalizing the loss and damage fund; staying on track new finance target; and launching a carbon offset system.
An effective global stocktake + emissions goals are unlikely: The climate conference is expected to yield disappointing results on the world’s first global stocktake, scoring a meager 3 out of 10. Current climate action strategies leave the world with a 14% chance of meeting the 1.5°C warming limit at best, and could see temperatures rise by 2.9°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, rendering the outcome of the stocktake all but done, Bloomberg adds. Additionally, setting 1.5 C-aligned 2030 emissions goals will likely be “more tentative than bold,” according to Bloomberg, which gave COP28 a 1 out of 10 score on this front.
The USD 100 bn climate finance target is more feasible:The climate conference will likely see developed countries make good on their USD 100 bn pledge to finance climate vulnerable developing markets, BloombergNEF notes, adding that the USD 89.6 bn mobilized in 2021 is a promising indicator for realization of the commitment. COP28 participants have already agreed on operationalisation of the loss and damage fund, with some USD 501.2 mn committed by the UAE, Germany, US, UK, the EU, Portugal, Spain, Canada, and Japan. While not on the official agenda, COP28 President-Designate Sultan Al Jaber called on multilateral development banks to work through country platforms, revise climate finance targets for coming years, and lower the risk for the private sector at the summit. Participating countries at the UN summit are also expected to replenish the Green Climate Fund at the conference, with Gulf states being pressured to contribute. BloombergNEF gave COP28 a seven out of 10 rating on this front.
EXPECT MORE ACTION FROM BANKS- Top development banks set to pledge more funds: Ten of the world's top development banks — including the World Bank — will pledge to increase their climate finance efforts at COP28, Reuters reports, citing an exclusive statement that is yet to be released. The group of banks plan to set a common approach to tracking and reporting climate impact and to increase the use of analytics to help countries identify investment priorities while attracting more private capital by removing fossil fuel subsidies and developing pipelines of green projects. The World Bank will host a joint program aimed at supporting countries and organizations to develop their own decarbonization and climate resilience strategy in the long-term.
But remain silent on plans to divest in fossil fuels: The statement seen by Reuters did not include any targets of divesting in fossil fuels, the newswire wrote. The European Investment Bank is yet the only one among the group to sign the 'Glasgow Declaration' and commit to stop lending to fossil fuel projects.
MODI EYES 2028 COP- India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has offered to host the UN's COP33 in an effort to position India as a climate leader, Bloomberg reported on Friday. Modi presided over the G20 this year and succeeded in having leaders commit to tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030. The UN is still struggling to find a host for COP29 — scheduled to be held in an Eastern European country — with threats by Russia looming to veto any bid by a European Union member. Germany has also refused to host COP29 at the UN headquarters in Bonn, leaving the UAE to retain the COP presidency if no agreement is reached.
WATCH THIS SPACE #1- Masdar is lining up another green bond issuance: UAE renewables giant Masdar is planning its second green bond issuance this year — of similar value to its earlier USD 750 mn issuance — to increase renewables capacity, Bloomberg reported Friday, citing CFO Niall Hannigan. The company’s debut green bond issuance was part of an initiative to raise USD 3 bn in bonds for new renewable energy projects in the UAE and abroad under a plan to grow its global portfolio to 100 GW of capacity by 2030. The funds went towards investments in clean energy projects in Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan.
WATCH THIS SPACE #2- India’s ReNew wants to expand investments in Egypt: India’s largest renewables developer ReNew Power is exploring investments in green hydrogen projects in Egypt, The National reported on Friday, citing comments made by ReNew’s CEO Sumant Sinha on the sidelines of COP28. The company — which the UAE sovereign wealth fund Abu Dhabi Investment Authority has a 14.5% share in — plans on diversifying its operations to the Middle East, North Africa, India and Australia, and investing in countries rich in natural resources, with a proximity to global markets, and a competitive price for land, Sinha told the news outlet. The capital for the investments will be made available through divesting in its existing assets, he added.
REMEMBER- El Sewedy + ReNew already signed an agreement for a USD 8 bn green hydrogen project: ReNew announced in August that it is scheduled to break ground on its USD 8 bn green hydrogen plant in Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone early next year. This comes after El Sewedy Electric and ReNew signed a framework agreement with the government to generate 570 MW of renewables to be used for the production of 20k tons of green hydrogen during its pilot phase. The green hydrogen will be used as feedstock to generate 100k tons of green ammonia.
DANGER ZONE #1- World will hit 1.4°C warming in 2023: The world is on track to reach 1.4°C warming above pre-industrial levels in 2023, making it the hottest year on record and breaking the 2016 record of almost 1.3°C, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)’s State of the Global Climate report released last Thursday found. "Greenhouse gas levels are record high. Global temperatures are record high. Sea level rise is record high. Antarctic sea ice is record low," said WMO Secretary-General Peterri Taala. Scientists also warned that next year could be worse as the impacts of El Niño are expected to peak in winter and drive up temperatures.
DANGER ZONE #2- Two-thirds of promised climate funds from developed world did not make it to their destination: Around two-thirds of climate finance commitments, totaling USD 343 bn, from the developed world between 2013 and 2021 were never reported as disbursed or had little connection to climate, Reuters reported last week, citing analysis by non-profit advocacy group One. The report found that Western nations reported projects like a coal power plant and coastal hotel projects as climate finance, as there are no guidelines for what countries can report to the United Nations as climate finance. Nigeria received 75% less than promised, with a deficit of USD 4.5 bn. Kenya also received USD 4.5 less than promised and Senegal's shortfall is around USD 2.8 bn.
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