Good morning, friends. We’re inching closer to the end of March with an issue packed with investment, debt, renewables, and mining updates from across the region. Brazil’s COP30 is also making an early splash. But first, the latest on climate advocacy group Greenpeace’s courtroom troubles…

THE BIG STORY ABROAD THIS WEEK- Greenpeace hit with USD 660 mn verdict: A jury ordered Greenpeace to pay over USD 660 mn in damages to Energy Transfer Partners, siding with the Texas-based oil company in a defamation case linked to the 2016-2017 protest against the Dakota Access Pipeline last Wednesday. The verdict — which found Greenpeace liable for defamation, trespassing, and conspiracy — could lead to the group’s bankruptcy in the US. Greenpeace is set to face Energy Transfer again in court this July in the Netherlands.

IN CONTEXT- Energy Transfer first sued Greenpeace in federal court in 2017, seeking mns of USD in damage, but the case was dismissed. The Dakota Access pipeline at the time sparked nationwide protests, with activists arguing it threatened water supplies and lands near the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation. The company then refiled a similar lawsuit in North Dakota state court, where the verdict was delivered last Wednesday after a three-week trial. Energy Transfer accused Greenpeace of paying protesters to unlawfully disrupt construction and spreading false claims about the project — which faced staunch opposition from environmental and indigenous advocacy groups.

The story made headlines in the international press: Reuters | The Associated Press | Bloomberg | The Financial Times | CNBC | The Washington Post | The New York Times | CNN | BBC | The Guardian

COP WATCH-

Brazil has big ambitions for COP30: Brazil is planning on launching a USD 125 bn fund for tropical forest conservation at COP30 — which is taking place in the country this November, Brazil’s Finance Ministry Executive Secretary Rafael Dubeux told Bloomberg last week. The World Bank is also helping set up the fund and is expected to manage it later. The fund — called the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF) — is expected to start accepting contributions by the time the summit kicks off.

The details: TFFF will pay countries a fee for every hectare of forest a country protects. Brazil wants rich nations to contribute an initial USD 25 bn to the fund to help attract another USD 100 bn from the private sector. All the money raised would be invested in a diversified portfolio that would generate returns for investors and pay the protection fee to countries.

Who’s on board? Some countries are already interested in becoming anchor contributors — including Germany, France, the UAE, and Singapore, Dubeux added. Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia, and the DRC are among the heavily forested countries expected to benefit from the fund.

A fairer carbon market is also on the agenda: Brazil is planning to propose a volunteer-based coalition in which countries commit to an emissions ceiling based on national per capita income that would enable poorer countries more breathing room for emissions. The host country will also propose a border adjustment mechanism for countries that decide not to join the coalition in an attempt “to make a broad regulated carbon market work,” Dubeux added.

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING REGIONALLY-

#1- Infinity Power is looking to reach financial close on its 200 MW wind farm in Ras Ghareb by the end of next month, a company source told Al Arabiya on Tuesday. The investment cost is around USD 200 mn, with 25% of the money to come from national sources and 75% from foreign sources. The company is also in talks with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the Arab Finance Corporation for financing.

About the project: Infinity — along with Emirati state-run renewables giant Masdar and the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) — will develop, finance, and operate the project. The project was initially reported to cost USD 216.7 mn and set for October 2026 completion, but the source has instead forecasted completion and connection to the grid some time during 1Q 2027.

More fresh projects in the pipeline? The company is reportedly working on acquiring land for a USD 1.5 bn, 1.5 GW wind project in the Gulf of Suez, Al Arabiya reports, citing the company source. Infinity is also trying to push back its timeline for a 900 MW solar project in the New Valley Oasis area to early 2026, while also working to speed up the completion of a 300 MW solar plant in Benban, the source added.

#2- A global coalition of 87 civil society organizations has issued a statement rejecting the SoutH2 Corridor, blasting the project as being “at odds” with a fair response to the climate crisis, according to a joint statement (pdf) issued on Tuesday. The coalition — which includes a handful of NGOs from Tunisia and Morocco — also called on governments to halt public subsidies and support hydrogen export projects, arguing that it advances a “neo-colonial” and “extractivist” development model that prioritizes corporate and European countries’ interests over local populations’ needs.

But why? The coalition says such a project would require “large scale appropriation of land,” intense water and renewable energy usage, and USD bns in government subsidies, effectively shifting resources and money away from local population and propping up fossil fuel corporations under the guise of green energy. Criticisms also hit the EU’s approach to expand gas networks instead of dismantling them, strengthening the role of fossil fuel corporations in shaping the energy transition. Arguments also include how African governments are pressured into supporting such projects by taking on sovereign debt to de-risk private investment.

REFRESHER- The SoutH2 Corridor is a 3.3k km hydrogen pipeline connecting North Africa with Europe on which member countries inked a joint declaration of intent last January. The project’s website boasts governments’ “political endorsement” and “support” from companies involved in hydrogen production and offtake along the corridor such as Italy’s Snam, Austria’s TAG & GCA, and Germany’s Bayernets.

#3- World Bank, Tunisia seek consultants for solar + BESS study: The World Bank and Tunisia’s Industry, Mines, and Energy Ministry are seeking consultants to conduct a technical study for a 350-400 MW solar project with a battery energy storage system (BESS), according to a tender issued on Monday. The study will evaluate site feasibility, grid impact, and economic viability while recommending an optimal hybrid power plant setup. Expressions of interest are due by 24 March 2025.

#4- PIF-backed luxury EV maker Lucid will earmark 13% of its Saudi-based EV production for GCC markets, VP and Managing Director of the Middle East division Faisal Sultan told Arab News on Sunday. The new factory — to be completed by the end of 2026 — will have the capacity to produce 150k cars once operational in 2027.

There’s more: The company is in talks to establish a battery recycling facility in Saudi Arabia and is planning to open more locations in the country, particularly in the Dammam and Al Khobar areas, Sultan added. Lucid will also consider sourcing its EV batteries from a Saudi partner as well, but global players will still be involved.

Big expansion plans: Lucid aims to double production in 2025 to around 20k vehicles and is designing a smaller, more affordable market vehicle at its Arizona facility. The company also signed an agreement in May with the Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Company to expand fast-charging infrastructure across Saudi.

#5- Algeria-Tunisia-Libya interconnection incoming: Algeria is set to sign an MoU with Tunisia and Libya to conduct preliminary studies for an electricity interconnection project, state-owned Sonelgaz director of studies Habib Mohamed Akhdar told APS on Sunday. No timeline has been disclosed for the studies or potential implementation.

ICYMI- Algeria is looking to develop cross-border electricity connections with multiple neighbors, including its southern neighbors in the Sahel, Libya, and eventually Egypt.

#6- Arab states lead in wind-powered hydrogen production: Arab nations are emerging as global leaders in wind-powered hydrogen production, with Mauritania, Oman, Morocco, and Egypt ranking among the top 10 countries in expected capacity, according to the Global Wind Power Tracker data (pdf) by Global Energy Monitor. The number of planned hydrogen projects in the Arab world has surged nearly 4x since 2021 to reach 127, Attaqa reported on Sunday.

Rankings: Mauritania ranked second globally, with a projected 54.6 GW capacity, though all projects remain in the announcement phase. Oman followed in fourth place with 30.85 GW, including some 18 GW in pre-construction and 12.9 GW in announced projects. Morocco ranked seventh with a 26.61 GW pipeline, including 100 MW under construction, 4 GW in pre-construction, and 22.5 GW in announced projects. Egypt trailed close at eighth with 25.8 GW, consisting of 260 MW under construction, 13.9 GW in pre-construction, and 11.61 GW in announced projects. KSA — ranked 16th — is set to begin production next year, with 1.67 GW under construction.

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING GLOBALLY-

#1- SBTi sticks to its stance on carbon credits: The Science-Based Targets initiative(SBTi) has rolled out new guidelines to improve corporate emissions-reduction plans while maintaining its strict stance on carbon credits, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing SBTi’s proposal. The proposal allows companies to offset only their “residual” emissions — those remaining after maximum feasible cuts within its operations and supply chains — but stops short of expanding credit use beyond that. It also encourages firms to purchase carbon credits outside their supply chains to support broader climate goals.

#2- Honda and Suzuki will join Tesla’s emissions pool to comply with the EU’s carbon regulations, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing an EU filing. The Tesla-led pool — also including Stellantis, Toyota, Ford, Mazda, and Subaru — is one of two alliances automakers have formed to navigate the bloc’s strict 2025 targets. Without emission pooling, many companies — especially those whose sales come from petrol-powered cars — could face up to EUR 15 bn in penalties for missing the targets.

Background: SBTi suggested last year that carbon credits could be used to offset Scope 3 emissions, sparking controversy with critics claiming carbon credits are a tool for greenwashing. SBTI’s CEO stepped down in response to the backlash and the group said it would maintain its restrictions on the use of carbon credits for corporate climate targets, citing insufficient scientific support for broader use.

#3- Russia wants to ramp up lithium extraction + processing: Russia is eyeing reaching some 60k metric tons of lithium carbonate production by 2030 in a bid to lower dependence on imports and ramp up local production of batteries, Reuters reported on Monday, citing the Natural Resources Ministry. The country has also issued exploration licenses for three of its major deposits in Kolmozerskoye, Polmostundrovskoye, and Tastygskoye. Processing plants are planned in these areas, with operations planned to begin in 2030.

In numbers: The country reported having 3.5 mn tons of lithium oxide reserves, but the US Geological Survey estimated 1 mn tons of lithium reserves in 2024.

#4- Colombia has been turning down debt-for-nature swaps over concerns that they could undermine the country’s credit ratings, Bloomberg reported on Sunday, citing former Environment Minister Susana Muhamad. “We are a middle-income economy, the financial markets look at us differently than if we were a country that is in debt struggles,” Muhamad said.

Why is this the case? The innovative financial instrument allows countries — generally those with junk credit ratings — to leverage credit backing and ins. from multilateral lenders to refinance debt on better terms and redirect savings toward environmental projects. As such, officials worry that resorting to the tool could “send the wrong message” and undermine investor confidence in the South American nation, Muhamad added.

ICYMI-Debt-for-nature swaps have gained traction in developing economies, with countries including Ecuador, the Bahamas, and Barbados completing swaps.

#5- Indonesia to resume forestry carbon credit sales next month: Indonesia is set to lift a three-year moratorium on forestry carbon credit trades next month, Indonesia’s Carbon Trade Association President Riza Suarga told Bloomberg last week. The move will enable nature-based projects — including peatland conservation and reforestation — to generate and offer credits for sale. Trading will soon launch for private sector and community-managed forests, according to a Forestry Ministry statement. The country expects the forestry carbon market to grow significantly, reaching IDR 258.7 tn (USD 15.7 bn) annually by 2034.

In context: The government suspended approvals for new carbon offsets from nature-based projects and blocked credit exports in early 2022 as part of an effort to ensure it could meet its own climate targets by leveraging its carbon sink capacity.

Indonesia’s carbon market? The country’s carbon market — IDXCarbon — has faced sluggish demand since its September 2023 launch, hampered by Indonesia’s slow rollout of an emissions cap-and-trade system. In a bid to boost activity, Indonesia opened its domestic carbon market to foreign participants in January, Bloomberg reported then. The exchange traded 414k tons of credits in 2024 at an average price of IDR 47.7k (c.USD 2.90) per ton.

#6- Botswana will launch a request for proposals this month for the development of 1.5 GW of solar power, the country’s Mines & Energy Minister Bogolo Kenewendo told Bloomberg last week. The country aims to source 50% of its power from renewables by 2030, targeting 8 GW in solar capacity alone — which would far exceed its current power demand of just 600 MW.

DANGER ZONE-

#1- Sea levels rose by 0.59 cm last year — which saw the hottest temperatures on record — exceeding the predicted increase of 0.43 cm, according to findings by NASA. The rise is attributed to warmer oceans and melting land-based ice. Two-thirds of 2024’s sea level rise is attributable to the thermal expansion of oceans — rising water volume under heat — with one-third resulting from melting ice glaciers.

#2- Greenhouse gases’ atmospheric concentrations have reached their highest level ever, with CO2 levels reaching 420 parts per mn (ppm) in 2023 — 2.3 ppm higher than in 2022 and 151% higher than pre-industrial levels — according to a report (pdf) by the UN’s World Meteorological Organization released on Wednesday. Methane and nitrous oxide also reached their highest levels in 800k years and CO2 levels are now higher than at any point in at least 2 mn years, the report added.

#3- Iran’s water reserves hit critical levels: Iran’s decreasing rainfall and sediment buildup has lowered dam capacity significantly, with Tehran consuming 50 mn cbm of surface water monthly despite combined reserves of the capital’s five main dams only amounting to 60 mn cbm, Iran International reported on Tuesday. Decreases have reached as much as 75% in some provinces, government spokesperson Fatemah Mohajerani said, and some hydrologists believe the country has used up almost 1k years worth of groundwater in only three decades. Despite the lower rainfall, hydropower generation — on which Iran is highly reliant — has increased by 24% in the fiscal year starting in March 2023 to reach 17 TWh, Iran International reported, citing Iran’s Energy Ministry.

THE SCORECARD-

Africa’s solar capacity is set to more than double in four years, with 23 GW of new installations expected between 2025-28, driven by projects in Egypt and South Africa, Bloomberg reported last week, citing a Global Solar Council report (pdf). Africa added 2.4 GW of solar capacity last year, slightly below 2023 levels. Africa accounts for just 3% of global energy investment, largely due to high capital costs, which are almost 7x higher than in developed countries.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UAE will host the Middle East Energy conference from Monday, 7 April until Wednesday, 9 April in Dubai. The event will target six product sectors, including smart solutions, transmissions and distribution, renewable and clean energy, critical and backup power, energy consumption and management, batteries, and eMobility.

The UAE will host theSolar Energy Storage Future MENA conference on Tuesday, 8 April in Dubai. The conference aims to empower solar energy and storage in the MENA region to align with net zero goals. Planned events include a panel on navigating competitive markets and financing energy efficiency upgrades.

Turkey will host the International SolarEX Istanbul Fair from Thursday, 10 April until Saturday, 12 April in Istanbul. The event will bring together investors from 125+ countries along with over 200 world-renowned companies and 500+ brands in the solar sector. The fair will feature firm conferences and seminars covering financing, investment, and production in the solar industry.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.