Good morning, folks. It’s a compact issue this morning as we slide into the weekend. We have an update on Aldar’s green sukuk issuance and a fresh addition to Morocco’s burgeoning EV component manufacturing portfolio. We also do a deep dive into a new report which shows how the goal set by to triple renewable capacity by 2030 is faring.

THE BIG CLIMATE STORY OUTSIDE THE REGION-No end in sight for record-breaking temperatures: The past 11 months have broken temperature records and last month was no different, marking the hottest April on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service’s monthly report. The average global temperature in the last 12 months has been the highest on record at 1.61°C above pre-industrial levels, the data revealed. Temperatures were most above average over northwest Middle East, most of Africa, northern and northeastern North America, Greenland, eastern Asia, and parts of South America, the report added.

Environmental scientists’ concerns grow: The results are leading analysts to believe that the world might be irreversibly closer to the 1.5°C warming cap set by the Paris Agreement Goals which may now need to be adjusted to 2°C, Newcastle University climate scientist Hayley Fowler said. The records have led scientists to consider whether the effects of climate change have officially reached a tipping point — a critical threshold in a system that, when exceeded, can lead to a significant and irreversible change in the state of the system.

The story made headlines in the international press: Reuters | Bloomberg | The Financial Times | CNN | France 24 |

PSA-

Mercedes-Benz is recalling over 2.5k SUVs in the UAE due to a transmission issue, specifically in GLS/GLE models from 2019 to 2023 with the M256 engine and automatic transmission NAG3, Khaleej Times reports. Local importers across the country are coordinating the recall, reaching out to affected vehicle owners for necessary checks and repairs.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- The US accuses China of selling tainted biodiesel feedstock: The US biofuel industry is raising alarms over a surge in imports of used cooking oil (UCO) — an ingredient to make renewable diesel — from China which is suspected to be made up of mostly non-used palm oil, Bloomberg reports. The palm oil industry has long been criticized for its major deforestation activities and labor abuse. Industry groups and biofuel executives are calling for the government to increase scrutiny of UCO imports to the US — half of which originate from China — which have more than tripled in 2023 compared to the previous year.

The influx of the tainted biofuel feedstock is displacing domestic production of other feedstocks like fresh soybean oil, affecting profits and expansion plans of US agriculture companies, Bloomberg adds. UCO imports are taking advantage of Biden's renewables incentives with a better carbon intensity score and lower price which affects local producers.

The EPA is in talks with industry stakeholders to address the issue, which could impact the integrity of the Renewable Fuel Standard Program, according to Bloomberg. The program mandates biofuel blending into the US fuel supply and requires producers to keep records ensuring the legal definition of “renewable biomass” is met. Industry groups like Clean Fuels Alliance America and NOPA are also actively investigating the surge in UCO imports and engaging with federal agencies to protect domestic interests and ensure fair trade practices.

#2- Siemens Energy’s wind division is finally looking up: Germany’s Siemens Energy raised its full-year outlook and achieved a fourfold increase in quarterly operating profit, hinting at a recovery of its struggling Gamesa wind division, Reuters reports. Siemens Energy raised its sales, operating profit, and free cash flow outlook for 2024, dispelling concerns of divestment. The firm struggled with major quality issues with its onshore wind turbine platforms last year which caused it to lose EUR 4.6 bn in annual net losses, on top of the already existing hurdles in the sector such as rising costs of wind turbine materials, higher borrowing costs, and a supply chain crisis which severely impacted the bottomline of wind energy giants over the last couple of years.

The firm is making structural changes to keep the momentum: Siemens Energy has made job cuts and appointed a new CEO in an effort to address its losses as the company emerges from a major crisis, the news outlet added. The announcement led to an 11.5% rise in shares. The company’s new CEO Vinod Philip will take over Siemens Gamesa from Jochen Eickholt. The firm is also planning to reintroduce revised versions of its turbines in Europe by September, with new models to be released next year, Reuters writes.

#3- The global EV market remains a mess: Sales of EVs are up sharply at BMW — and the Bavarian carmaker saw its margins collapse in 1Q as a result, reports Germany’s Handelsblatt. The culprit? Competition is rising in a softening market in which many players have tons of excess product, forcing it to cut selling prices.

A lot of that oversupply is coming from China, where companies are now pushing EVs on other markets — including here in the Middle East. That has even friendly trade partners on edge and saw the European Union this week threaten to impose sanctions on Chinese EVs unless Beijing takes action in the short term, Bloomberg notes. EC boss Ursula von der Leyen said China is “flooding our market with massively subsidized electric cars,” Reuters adds.

Chinese companies could look to start producing EVs in other countries in a bid to ease tensions — much as Japanese automakers did to smooth-out economic relations with the US back in the 1980s. Two cases in point: EV leader Byd as well as Neta Auto plan to start producing EVs in the lucrative Indonesian market, with Byd saying it will invest USD 1 bn in its plant, the Financial Times reports.

#4- Morocco launches incubator for green tech startups: Renewables accelerator Cluster ENR is now accepting proposals for this year’s Green Business Incubator (GBI) for renewable energy, clean technology, and green technology startups, according to a statement. 20 companies will be selected to receive 12 months of guidance and support on how to secure financing, reach more clients, and build the firm's business network. Of those selected, 12 startups that have obtained patents will receive up to AED 400k — to cover up to 80% of the costs needed to launch the startup project — which will be provided by the Innov Invest Fund launched by Moroccan state-owned financial institution for SMEs Tamwilcom. All participating companies must be based in Morocco and be no more than five years old. The deadline for accepting proposals is 3 June.

#5- Clean energy ETFs gain momentum: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) — funds that track a specific index and can be traded on exchanges — linked to clean energy projects are showing signs of recovery, outperforming their oil and gas counterparts for the first time since 2021, Reuters reports. Most major ETFs tied to renewable energy generation have lost between 20-70% of their value since 2022 on the back of increasing interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and a slowdown in clean energy installations which cut consumer demand and hit the earnings and stock prices of companies operating in the sector, the newswire explains. ETFs linked to renewable energy generation, smart grid management, and uranium extraction were the main drivers behind the improved performance.

What’s driving the recovery? Growing policy support for nuclear generation sparked investor interest in the sector, leading to investment vehicles tied to uranium (the heavy metal needed to generate nuclear energy) extraction becoming more attractive, with an uptick in demand observed starting from the second half of 2023, the news outlet writes. ETFs tied to electric grid upgrades and smart power management systems made gains last year as a result of growing awareness about the challenges of incorporating renewable energy into existing grid systems, pushing more investments in major utility-scale investments.

Where is the trend going? A potential peace deal in Gaza could decrease oil and gas prices while falling interest rates are expected to make renewable energy more affordable, Reuters writes, adding that this could accelerate the divergence in ETF returns in favor of clean energy investments over fossil fuels. While some clean energy ETFs remain negative year-to-date, a sustained trend could lead to positive returns across the board.

DANGER ZONE-

Climate-warming refrigerant gasses used for industry and retail cooling are being imported illegally from China and Turkey into the EU, an investigation report (pdf) by the London-based Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) found. The gasses — called hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) — are 1k times more damaging than CO2, threatening efforts to reduce emissions in the continent. Similar to its 2021 report, the new publication finds that around 20-30% of legally traded volumes of the chemicals were illicitly traded. The HFCs are being smuggled via shipments entering from Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine which law enforcement has been unable to detect.

Demand is driving the problem: Europe is among those committed to the Montreal Protocol under which the Kigali amendment mandates an 85% cut in HFC use by 2036. However, with demand still high, HFCs are becoming pricier and much more valuable for smugglers to trade in, effectively undermining the Protocol’s efforts to make alternatives more appealing and cost effective.

Steps are being taken: The EU has revised its F-gas Regulation which provides additional tools for law enforcement to crack down on the trade. The revision will need to be quick and effective to stop the smuggling before demand for illegal HFCs rises as the supply in EU markets is further reduced, EIA Senior Climate Campaigner Fin Walravens told Reuters.

OUR NEXT CONFERENCE IN CAIRO-

Foreign investors are falling in love with Egypt again… Foreign investors we speak with (debt, equity, and strategic alike) have growing appetite for Egypt. They’re buying into local debt, eyeing promising shares, and committing bns of USD to both new ventures here and the growth of their existing businesses. They like the Egypt story that’s taking shape after the float of the EGP, and its competitive advantages are clear to many of them: It’s a massive consumer opportunity and a regional export hub of tomorrow.

The Enterprise Optimism Forum 2024 will do exactly what it says on the tin: Spark conversations about a future that sees Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the the UAE at the heart of a more vital Middle East economy — and provide an early, actionable roadmap for those who are “long Egypt.”

We’ll be talking with you about the agenda over the coming couple of weeks. It features speakers from Egypt and abroad who are future-proofing their businesses and angling to capture tomorrow’s opportunities — and who aren’t afraid to answer some tough questions.

*** Interested in attending? Tap or click here to let us know. Seating is limited.

***
YOU’RE READING ENTERPRISE CLIMATE, the essential MENA publication for senior execs who care about the world’s most important industry. We’re out Monday through Thursday by 9am in Cairo and Riyadh and 11am in the UAE.

EXPLORE MORE OF ENTERPRISE ON THE WEB —tap or click here to read EnterpriseAM, EnterprisePM, Enterprise Climate, Enterprise Logistics, and The Weekend Edition on our powerful new website packed with reader-friendly features.

Get your own subscription without charge here or reach out to us on climate@enterprisemea.com with comments, suggestions and story tips.
***

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Saudi Arabia will host the Saudi Energy Convention from Sunday, 19 May to Tuesday, 21 May in Riyadh. The convention will see energy and utilities industry leaders advance collaborative decarbonization efforts and identify innovation areas. It will also host the Saudi Utilities Convention and Saudi Hydrogen Convention to address the role and challenges of rolling out hydrogen, water and utility projects that are in line with the global energy transition. Over 10k energy professionals and 200 industry speakers will be present at the event.

The UAE will host The Electric Vehicle Innovation Summit from Monday, 20 May to Wednesday, 22 May in Abu Dhabi. The event will see industry leaders come together to discuss sustainable mobility and tapping into groundbreaking advancements in electric vehicles while engaging with key decision-makers.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.