Tariffs threaten clean energy sector globally: The global clean energy industry is bracing for fresh supply chain disruptions and steeper costs after Trump unveiled sweeping new tariffs on all imports to the US, the Financial Times reported on Monday. With duties ranging from 10% to 49% — and reaching up to 129% for China, the move threatens to raise prices across the green sector, including solar and battery storage, and trigger a wave of supply chain sourcing realignments.

Uncertainty is the name of the game: It isn’t clear whether these tariffs are here to stay, with Trump repeatedly claiming he’s open to bilateral negotiations, and after he announced a 90-day pause on (most of) his tariffs on (most) countries on Wednesday.

US Solar imports are set to be one of the hardest-hit segments: Solar projects could become very expensive in the US, which imports most of its panels from Southeast Asian suppliers who are now facing steep levies — Vietnam (46%), Cambodia (49%), and Thailand (36%), Bloomberg reported last week. Despite recent growth in domestic production, the US still imports far more solar panels than it manufacturers — roughly 95 mn PV panels in 2023 alone, FT noted citing Rystad Energy.

Our region could benefit : With imports from China, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand now under pressure, there is a possibility the the US will turn to the Middle East and Africa for green tech imports, Rystad’s VP for solar research told FT. The US tariff approach could also spur a growth in the region’s renewables manufacturing capacity, as Southeast Asian green producers shift operations abroad to evade the tariffs.

India could be one of the few relative winners: With a more modest 26% tariff rate and a growing export profile, India sent 9.4 GW worth of cells to the US between 2023 and 2024, Bloomberg noted. The lighter tariffs could open the door for further Indian expansion in the US renewables market, especially as other Asian players are squeezed out, according to Vagneur-Jones.

China could also emerge stronger: The US is hardly a major market for China’s green sector exports except in the case of battery storage systems, Semafor reports. The US tariffs could, in effect, undermine the US’ transition, while spurring China to redirect production for its local projects and other markets, accelerating the transition in China and globally and butressing China’s global dominance in the industry, Greenpeace East Asia project lead Yao Yi told Semafor.

China is also expected to double down on emerging markets, Bloomberg reported last Thursday, citing BloombergNEF’s supply chain & trade head Vagneur-Jones. The tariffs could further reinforce an already established trend that’s seen the share of Chinese clean-tech exports to low and middle income countries expand rapidly between 2022 and 2024, Bloomberg reports citing its BNEF data. Brazil and Pakistan could be two major destination for the Chinese green exports, the New York Times reported last Thursday.

On the flipside, the tariffs are contributing to an undervaluation of publicly-traded green energy companie, spurring interest from private equity investors, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday. This, in turn, is expected to make several clean energy companies — especially those under strain in the US — attractive for investors who are looking to taking these companies private for restructuring at lower prices, Bloomberg reported. Firms with complex supply chains and those with solid tech — like grid software or energy intelligence, but face market headwinds could be prime targets, Minotaur Capital co-founder Armina Rosenberg told Bloomberg.

Foreign corporations are exploiting Africa’s undervalued carbon credits, outgoing head of the African Development Bank (AfDB) Akinwumi Adesina told Financial Times last week. Europe’s expensive carbon credits — which can go up to EUR 200 per ton — can be skirted by purchasing African credits for as low as USD 3, Adesina said.

Including natural capital in Africa’s GDP: With large swathes of carbon sinks being undervalued, Adesina suggests recalculating the continent’s GDP to reflect its natural capital. Africa’s stores of gas, minerals, metals, biodiversity, and forests could drive up its GDP valuation, with carbon credits reflecting a fairer price, Adesina said.

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