Good morning, nice people. We’re ending January — the month that feels like forever — with a pile of news from around the region and beyond. A new mining JV, a new BESS project, and a regional player’s possible takeover of a UK-based company are all on deck this AM, along with green hydrogen partnerships galore. First, let’s check in on the EU tariff tussle…

THE BIG STORY ABROAD THIS WEEK- Tesla + BMW join fight against EU tariffs: Tesla and BMW have joined BYD, Geely, SAIC, and others in filing complaints against EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles at the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU). Tesla’s Shanghai subsidiary filed the complaint with the lower of the two CJEU chambers, the General Court, where proceedings typically last 18 months and can be appealed. The Court’s website is yet to publish Tesla’s filing document.

Automakers’ argument: The duties “harm the business model” of companies with active global businesses — including EU-based automakers — and would “slow down decarbonization in the transport sector,” a BMW spokesperson told Bloomberg, adding that there will only be “losers” in the end.

The EU may be open for a resolution: The EU is open to finding a solution but it must address “the clear example of unfair competition that our investigation identified on this topic,” European Commission spokesperson Olof Gill said.

REMEMBER- The EU imposed tariffs of up to 45% on Chinese-made EVs in October. These duties — set to last for five years — are designed to counter what the EU considers unfair government subsidies provided to Chinese manufacturers. Tesla was hit with a 7.8% tariff last year in the EU’s final tariff rates, whereas Geely saw an 18.8% levy and SAIC and other companies deemed uncooperative with the bloc’s anti-subsidy investigation were handed a 35.3% tariff.

The story made headlines in the international press: Reuters | Bloomberg | Financial Times | The Guardian | Wall Street Journal | France 24 | Politico | EuroNews

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING REGIONALLY-

#1- Morocco earmarks USD 2.7 bn for grid upgrades: Morocco plans to invest some MAD 27 bn (c. USD 2.7 bn) in its electricity grid to accommodate the increasing share of renewable energy, Sabah Agadir reported on Wednesday, citing comments made by Director General of the National Office of Electricity and Drinking Water Tarik Hammane at a Casablanca seminar. The investments will be made over the next five years.

ICYMI- Morocco needs some MAD 30 bn of investments to boost its national electricity grid by 2030. The grid expansion will be key to accommodate the 9+ GW of renewable energy capacity that the country is planning to have added between 2023 and 2027, with total investments of MAD 90 bn.

#2- Amea is eyeing potential stake sale: UAE’s Amea Power is currently in discussions with a “select group of investors” to sell a stake in the company, CTO Mahabir Sharma told The National on Tuesday. While the size of the transaction was not disclosed, Amea plans to remain the majority owner. The move is currently in the due diligence phase, Sharma added.

An expansive operation: The regional renewables major has a pipeline of 6 GW of renewable projects across 20 countries. The company also has over 1.6 GW of either operational or under-construction projects, according to the company’s website.

IN OTHER UPDATES FROM EMIRATI PLAYERS- Masdar mulls USD 500 mn solar project in Bangladesh: UAE’s Masdar is looking to establish a 250 MW solar energy project on Bangladesh’s coast at an investment cost of USD 500 mn, the national news agency Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha reported on Tuesday. The project was reportedly proposed by Masdar’s Asia-Pacific Head of Development & Investment Fatima Alsuwaidi to Bangladesh’s Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus. No further details were disclosed for the plans.

Masdar has been looking eastward for a while: Masdar has been expanding in several nations across Asia. It recently announced plans to invest USD 15 bn in Phiippines to develop up to 10 GW renewable projects within a decade. It also has plans for Central Asian countries, such as Uzbekistan, where its 500 MW Zarafshan wind farm is expected to cost USD 600 mn.

#3- Egypt may give Suez hydroelectric project another go: Egypt plans to relaunch a tender for a 2.1 GW pumped-hydro storage project in Suez’s Jabal Ataqa, an anonymous government official told Asharq Business on Tuesday. Indian, Chinese, and European companies have already expressed initial interest in constructing the plant, the official said. Egypt backed out of a 2015 framework agreement with China’s state-owned SinoHydro for the project over financing disagreements.

What happened exactly? SinoHydro failed to secure the needed USD 2.3 bn initial investment and requested financial support from the Egyptian government, which it rejected, the source added. It was previously reported that the plans were indefinitely postponed due to financial and technical issues, including concerns about water scarcity.

Egypt is now eying more hydropower: Egypt is mulling investment offers valued at USD 4 bn over three years to build hydroelectric power projects for use in the country’s green hydrogen projects, a government source told EnterpriseAM Climate back in April. The government also reportedly wrapped up studies for two pumped storage hydropower projects in Luxor and Qena with a combined capacity of 2 GW last August.

AND MORE FROM EGYPT- Egypt’s Arab Organization for Industrialization (AOI) plans to establish another solar panel factory in Egypt with Omani investors, Al Mal reported on Tuesday, citing government officials. The USD 100 mn facility — which will be built on AOI-owned land — is planned to have a production capacity of 300 MW.

To be exported: Most of the production will be allocated for export to Gulf countries, providing foreign currency needed to import raw materials for local production, with a portion reserved for the local market to support domestic renewable energy projects.

On a roll: AOI inked an agreement with Sweden’s Sunshine Pro last month to establish a joint solar panel manufacturing project with a USD 200-300 mn investment, with plans to kick off operations in July this year. The facility is set to reach a full capacity of 1 GW of solar panels annually by July 2026.

#4- Greece in negotiations for GREGY loan: Greece is currently negotiating a EUR 20 mn loan from the EU to fund feasibility studies for the planned Egypt-Greece interconnector (GREGY) project, a source from Egypt’s Electricity and Renewable Energy Ministry told Asharq Business on Sunday. Listing the project in Europe means 50% of its funding comes in the form of grants while the rest is sourced from soft loans, the source added.

The scheme: GREGY is considered one of the EU’s Projects of Mutual Interest (pdf) — which benefits from faster permitting procedures and funding because they contribute to the continent’s decarbonization goals — and is also part of the EU’s Global Gateway development initiative, which aims to mobilize EUR 300 bn investments between 2021 and 2027 in areas, such as climate mitigation in the Energy sector.

The timeline: Feasibility and FEED studies are scheduled to wrap this year, as well as a final investment decision, and approvals and permits are slated for 2026, according to a European Commission document (pdf) on the project. If the project moves ahead, construction is planned to be completed in September 2029, and commissioning is targeted to begin in January of 2030.

ICYMI-The Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) issued three tenders to select environmental, financial, and feasibility study consultants for GREGY in July. Greece launched its own tenders last April through Elica Group — the firm developing the project — for companies interested in taking over the market, technical, and cost-benefit analysis of the project, as well as the desktop study.

#5- Abdel Latif Jameel-backed Rivian and Volkswagen’s (VW) JV is in discussions with other automakers to supply its software and electrical architecture, Rivian’s Chief Software Officer and the JV’s co-CEO Wassym Bensaid told Reuters last week. “Many other automakers are knocking on our door,” he said, declining to name the automakers or disclose the stages of the talks.

But what is so special about Rivian’s tech? Rivian’s vehicle architecture uses fewer electronic control units and less wiring, cutting weight and simplifying production. Its system enables over-the-air software updates, like smartphones — a cornerstone of “software-defined vehicles” — an area where traditional automakers continue to lag.

About the JV: VW agreed in November to invest up to USD 5.8 bn in the JV to co-develop EV technology. The JV aims to integrate Rivian’s advanced software with VW’s EV infrastructure, according to a statement from November. The JV is expected to improve Rivian’s balance sheet by increasing sales volumes and improving its negotiation power with suppliers, Reuters reported in November. For VW — and potentially other automakers — the JV offers quicker access to technology they have struggled to develop internally.

#6- Mongolia turns to KSA + UAE for multi-bn green energy projects: Mongolia could sign multi-bns renewable energy and green hydrogen agreements with Saudi Arabia, Mongolia’s Deputy Prime Minister Togmidyn Dorjkhand told Reuters on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos last week. The country is also in discussions with the UAE on similar projects.

What’s in the cards: Mongolia expects to ink an agreement with the Saudi camp “in the next few months” and is in talks with Acwa Power to establish a 10 GW renewable energy. A USD 5 bn green hydrogen project is also on the table, the Deputy Prime Minister said.

Mongolia’s pitch: The landlocked nation said it has in the pipeline 14 mega projects in energy and connectivity infrastructure worth USD 15 bn to USD 30 bn that it would like to attract investments in. The country is also positioning itself as a destination for mining ventures and was said to be courting Gulf investments last year for the exploration of its critical mineral deposits of lithium, nickel, and rare earth reserves. A major copper exporter to China, Mongolia is also home to what could become the world’s fourth-largest copper mine by the end of the decade — the Oyu Tolgoi mine.

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING GLOBALLY-

#1- Shell dominated 2024 carbon market: Shell has dominated the USD 1.4 bn global carbon credit market in 2024 as oil and gas majors scaled back clean energy spending and relied more on offsets to meet climate targets, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday.

By the numbers: Shell retired 14.9 mn credits from global trading in 2024, more than twice as many as Italy’s Eni, the next biggest user, the Financial Times reported, citing MSCI Carbon Markets data. Separate data from Allied Offsets, which tracks 99% of the market, show that Shell retired nearly three times more credits than Microsoft, the largest non-energy buyer.

SOUND SMART- Carbon credits — which offer a cheaper way to show progress without cutting emissions — must be “retired” to count as an offset, preventing further trade and ensuring the reduction is counted only once.

REFRESHER- Shell is scaling back climate commitments: The oil major — which successfully appealed a 2021 ruling requiring it to cut emissions by 45% by 2030 — was reportedly looking to sell a stake in its nature-based carbon projects as the market for offsets contracts and prices drop back in November. Shell reportedly moved to scaled back offshore wind investments and low-carbon ventures amid restructuring of its power division to cut costs and prioritize high-return activities.

ALSO- Shell takes hit on US wind farm: Shell has written off almost USD 1 bn, withdrawing from a US offshore wind farm, Bloomberg reported on Thursday. Shell disclosed USD 996 mn impairment related to the Atlantic Shores wind farm in New Jersey. “We just don’t see that it fits both our capabilities nor the returns that we would like, so we took the decision to write that off and pause our involvement,” Shell’s CFO Sinead Gorman said. The project is the latest echoing of Trump pulling the plug on climate projects and policy.

#2- Attractive US bond yields will lure funding away from emerging markets’ climate finance markets, head of Asia at the UK government’s British International Investment Srini Nagarajan told Bloomberg last week. The US 10-year Treasury rate — a benchmark for global borrowing costs – is now some 100 bps higher than it was in September, as Treasury rates rose since Donald Trump’s electoral victory.

Who is at risk? This trend will squeeze funding for early-stage companies pursuing climate solutions in emerging markets, Nagarajan said. Courting commercial investors will be very difficult, let alone adopting “a mobilization theme” to fund cutting-edge climate projects, he added. High-inflation countries are especially vulnerable, as markets like Pakistan and Bangladesh will likely struggle to obtain foreign direct investment.

Trump’s policies bode ill for climate finance…: “There will be tensions” between the Trump administration and providers of climate capital, namely the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank, Climate Bonds Initiative CEO Sean Kidney told Bloomberg.

… and for developing countries: The US is also likely to pull back from global funding agreements, including commitments to the Loss and Damage Fund, and “to increase finance to developing countries from $100 billion to $300 billion by 2035,” head of Asia-Pacific ESG ratings and research at Sustainable Fitch Nneka Chike-Obi told Bloomberg.

#3- China’s biofuel refiner EcoCeres is pursuing an IPO that could value the firm at some USD 5 bn, Bloomberg reported last week, citing unnamed sources. The firm reportedly wants to raise a sum between USD 500 mn and 1 bn by listing an undisclosed number of shares on a stock exchange in Europe — possibly London’s — or Hong Kong. The listing will depend on market conditions, and key details like a timeframe have not been established yet.

THE SCORECARD-

#1- MENA’s voluntary carbon market could be worth USD 10–40 bn by 2030, Mubasher reported on Sunday, citing Boston Consulting Group. Capitalizing on this potential, the UAE is ramping up efforts to solidify its role in the regional and global voluntary markets in 2025 under government initiatives to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. For example, UAE’s Adnoc currently captures 800k tonnes of CO2 annually from the Emirates Steel manufacturing plant. The upcoming Habshan project will add 1.5 mn tons annually, increasing total capacity to 2.3 mn tons, with plans to scale up to reach 10 mn tonnes annually by 2030, Mubasher reported, citing a report from the Abu Dhabi-based Interregional Center for Strategic Analysis.

#2- MENA is the fastest-growing region for renewables outside China despite having less than 1% of global renewable capacity, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday. A wave of mega-projects is reshaping the Gulf’s energy mix, with renewable energy projected to make up 30% of total capacity across Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, KSA, and the UAE within five years, FT adds citing data by Rystad Energy.

Bold green goals: Saudi Arabia is aiming to generate 50% of its electricity from renewables by 2030 — requiring installing 130 GW of capacity, enough to power 25 mn homes. Kuwait, which had only minimal renewable capacity at the end of 2023, awarded a contract last year to US engineering firm KBR to develop 17 GW of renewables and 25 GW of green hydrogen capacity by 2050.

#3- Turkey doubles solar capacity, outpacing official targets: Turkey’s solar energy capacity has doubled since mid-2022, reaching 19.6 GW by the end of 2024 — exceeding its 2025 target of 18 GW a year and a half ahead of schedule, according to energy think tank Ember’s latest country report(pdf). Turkey also has 33 GW of pre-licensed storage-integrated solar and wind projects in the pipeline.

The driver: The surge was driven largely by self-consumption installations, which accounted for 94% of the expansions. Planned investments in rooftop, hybrid, floating, and storage-integrated solar aim to sustain this momentum, aligning with Turkey’s new 120 GW solar & windtarget for 2035.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Egypt Energy Show will kick off on Monday, 17 February and run through to Wednesday, 19 February in Cairo. The event will bring together over 47k attendees and will highlight Egypt’s role in driving green energy transformation in the region under the theme “Building a secure and sustainable energy future.”

Oman Climate Week will begin on Monday, 24 February and run through to Thursday, 27 February in Muscat. The event will facilitate a dialogue on how Oman can align with the Paris Agreement and the goal to reach net zero emissions. Topics of interest include Climate Mitigation, Climate Adaptation, Climate Finance, Carbon Markets, Climate Technologies, Loss & Damage, and Social Inclusion.

The UAE will host Connecting Hydrogen MENA from Monday, 24 February to Wednesday, 29 January in Dubai. The event will be the largest hydrogen event in the region and will bring together over 3k attendees from over 50 countries to discuss collaboration in the sector along with ammonia, manufacturing, and transport.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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