Good morning, ladies and gents. EnterpriseAM Climate has some news of our own to kick off 2025. We’re ushering in the new year with a new format featuring a weekly roundup of all the regional and global updates from the climate industry, delivered to you on Fridays. There’s a lot to unpack since you last heard from us, so let’s jump right in.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD THIS WEEK- Biden bans coastal oil and gas drilling: US President Joe Biden banned new oil and gas drilling along 625 mn acres of US coastal waters — the entire eastern U.S. Atlantic coast and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico — due “environmental and economic risks” this week, according to a White House statement. “My decision reflects what coastal communities, businesses and beachgoers have known for a long time: that drilling off these coasts could cause irreversible damage to places we hold dear and is unnecessary to meet our nation’s energy needs,” Biden said.

The catch: Large areas of the Gulf of Mexico — where most US offshore drilling takes place and is already underway — would not be affected, pushing some to call the ban symbolic. Environmentalists celebrated the move with Oceana campaign director Joseph Gordon calling it an “epic ocean victory.”

Is the ban pointless with Trump’s inauguration looming? President-elect Donald Trump called the decision “ridiculous” and vowed to “unban it immediately,” in an interview with Hugh Hewitt (watch, runtime: 26:07). Unfortunately for Agent Orange, it will be difficult to reverse the move without an act of Congress due to Biden using authority under the federal Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act which allows presidents to withdraw from mineral leasing and drilling, but not to overturn prior bans.

Beef with… windmills? Trump also revealed a plan to implement “a policy where no windmills are being built,” and plans to increase oil and gas development in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge during a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate (watch, runtime: 1:47:23).

The story grabbed widespread ink in the international press this week: Reuters | AP | Bloomberg | New York Times | Financial Times | The Washington Post | CNN | CNBC | NPR | Axios | BBC | Xinhua

HAPPENING NEXT WEEK-

#1- The International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) Assembly is beginning tomorrow in Abu Dhabi and wrapping on Monday, 13 January. The event will gather global leaders and decision-makers to discuss the renewable energy transition and address challenges to energy security and financing.

#2- The Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week (ADSW) will kick off on Sunday and run through to Saturday, 18 January at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center. The event features 11 events gathering policymakers, industry leaders, and youth to discuss global sustainability solutions and foster collaborations.

#3- The World Energy Summit will open its door on Tuesday and run through to Thursday, 16 January in Abu Dhabi. The summit will host over 350 speakers including energy industry leaders and policymakers with discussions ranging from eco-waste to sustainable cities. An exhibition will also be held for showcasing green products.

#4- The Future Minerals Forum will also kick off on Tuesday and wrap on Thursday, 16 January in Riyadh. The forum will gather stakeholders from over 170 countries to discuss mineral technology and exploration. Speakers will include senior government officials and CEOs from renowned mining companies Vale, Rio Tinto, and Manara.

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING REGIONALLY-

#1- Egypt’s Sidpec + Korra Energi to build a hydrogen-powered plant in 2025: Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (Sidpec) is in talks with the energy efficiency company Korra Energi to construct a hydrogen power station at an investment cost of USD 16 mn in 2025, Al Arabiya reported Wednesday, citing unnamed sources it says are familiar with the matter. The plant’s expected capacity is roughly 14 MW and will make use of the hydrogen byproduct produced by Sidpec’s existing operations. It is unclear what type of hydrogen the station aims to produce.

IN OTHER EGYPT NEWS- The gov’t is planning on launching a digital mining platform this year, a slight delay from the previously planned end of 2024 launch date, according to a statement released on Sunday. The platform will market potential investments and streamline investors’ access to data. The country’s Oil and Mining Ministry has been reportedly preparing to launch a new bid for mineral exploration in several areas in the under-explored Western Desert, with the hope of expanding the mining sector’s contribution to the GDP to 5% from 1%.

ALSO- Another step forward for Egypt’s Dabaa nuclear plant: Egypt’s Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Authority has granted the Nuclear Power Plants Authority the go-ahead to establish a storage unit for spent fuel at the Dabaa nuclear power plant, according to a statement published last week. The new facility will store spent nuclear fuel for up to 100 years, with construction planned for this year.

Why it matters: After a few years of use, nuclear fuel loses its thermal efficiency and becomes no longer useful for generating electricity but becomes progressively more radioactive. At this point in its lifecycle, this nuclear fuel waste — dubbed as spent fuel — is isolated underwater to shield plant workers from the waste’s heat and radioactivity, according to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. These pools require steel-reinforced concrete walls and stainless steel liners and are sealed to prevent waste leakage. Spent fuel is isolated in these pools long-term or for at least a few years to cool before moving for permanent storage locations.

#2- We have new details on H2 Global Energy’s green hydrogen project in Tunisia: Dubai-based H2Global Energy and Irish Aramenco’s consortium will set up a USD 6 bn green hydrogen project with a 1.2 – 1.8 GW electrolyzer capacity in Tunisia slated for operation in 2031, Aramenco’s CCO Waleed al-Hallaj told Hydrogen Insight on Monday. The project – to be funded by shareholder equity – will produce 180k tons of green hydrogen annually with construction expected to kick off in 2028.

REMEMBER- The consortium had signed an MoU with Tunisian authorities for a green hydrogen and ammonia project in June 2024.

Wider regional plans: H2 Global and Amarenco also signed an agreement with the Jordanian government to develop a EUR 9 bn green ammonia generation project in the Kingdom back in 2023. The 4.5 GW facility was slated to produce one mn metric tons of green ammonia per year.

#3- Lucid surpasses delivery expectations: PIF-backed luxury EV maker Lucid has surpassed quarterly delivery expectations on the back of an uptick in demand due to lower prices and better financing, Reuters reported on Monday. The company delivered some 3.1k vehicles in 4Q rather than the predicted 2.64k, reflecting 11% q-o-q growth and 78% y-o-y growth after a disappointing 3Q. Production also increased 42% to over 3.3k vehicles in 4Q.

But Lucid’s sales-spurring strategy could be risky, some analysts warn. Current prices by the company mean it sustains tens of thousands of USD per vehicle, a situation that “risks putting the startup in an even more precarious financial position” in the future, eMarketer analyst Jacob Bourne told Reuters. In the first 9M of 2024, the firm’s losses widened to USD 2.32 bn in the first nine months of the year, compared to a USD 2.17 bn loss during the same period last year.

#4- Morocco needs some MAD 30 bn of investments to boost its national electricity grid by 2030, Energy Transition and Sustainable Development Minister Leila Benali said (watch, runtime 2:47:55) at a parliamentary session on Monday. The figure does not include investments for the major 3 GW power link between the southern and central regions. The grid expansion will be key to accommodate the 9+ GW of renewable energy capacity that the country is planning to have added between 2023 and 2027, with total investments of MAD 90 bn.

#5- The Iranian Defense Ministry is leading the development of solar and wind power plants at a total capacity of 2.8 GW over four years, IRNA reported last week, citing comments by the Deputy Defense Minister for Industrial Research. The plans include 2.3 GW of solar and 500 MW wind projects, IRNA reported separately.

The details: The projects — to be funded through foreign investment and the private sector — will combine large-scale and smaller developments, including rooftop solar installments. A large-scale power plant will be established in Sirjan metropolis in the southern Kerman province, while 18 other facilities will be distributed throughout other cities, such as Isfahan, Tehran, and Qom.

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING GLOBALLY-

#1- China’s carbon market is expanding in 2025 but challenges remain: China’s carbon market is expanding beyond the energy sector to include aluminum, cement, and steel-making this year, boosting the total allowances’ supply to an estimated eight bn tons, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing Chinese news outlet Caijing. While prices have risen by over 90% since the market debut in 2021 to reach 23% to CNY 97 per ton, the market is expected to face a surplus of 300 mn tons, which could dampen price momentum, mainly as new rules aim to limit hoarding by the end of 2025.

#2- Automakers in EU turn to emissions pooling to avoid fines: Two major emission pools are emerging as automakers scramble to meet the EU’s strict 2025 emissions rules, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing an EU filing(pdf). The first pool, which is Tesla-led, will see Stellantis, Toyota, Ford, Mazda, and Subaru are looking buy carbon credits from the fully electric Tesla, while another pool is forming in which Polestar, Volvo Cars, and Smart are looking to sell their emission credits to Mercedes, which is leading the management of the pool.

What else we know: The volume of credits purchased so far was not specified, but Tesla could collect over EUR 1 bn in compensation while Volvo could gain EUR 300 mn over 2025, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing UBS Group AG analysts. Other automakers could join, but they will have to apply by 5 Feb for the Tesla-led pool and Feb 7 for the Mercedes-led pool. Carmakers are required to inform the EU of pooling agreements by the end of each year.

ICYMI- Many carmakers are expected to miss the 2025 targets and the industry could potentially lose up to EUR 15 bn in fines. To avoid fines, companies will either have to pool their emissions or adjust prices to spur demand on their EVs models at the expense of petrol-powered cars to achieve the targets.

IN OTHER RELATED EU NEWS- Stricter marine fuel emission rules are here: The EU’s new marine fuel regulations requiring eligible vessels to reduce emissions by 2% annually entered into force on 1 January, Reuters reported on Monday. Shipping firms that miss the targets would be subject to fines of about EUR 2.4k per every ton of Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) or equivalent fuel exceeding the limit.

The rules: The new rules will apply on commercial ships with over 5k gross tonnage in EU ports, requiring them to slash emissions from bunker fuels. Targets are set to become stricter every five years, with the goal of achieving 80% emission reduction by 2050.

The impact: Some firms will attempt to shift to biofuels or LNG to meet the target, while others may opt to pool their emissions, an attractive option for firms that cannot afford the shift. However, both compliance options will be costly for the industry and could lead to a rise in shipping costs, which the industry warned would mostly fall on consumers.

#3- Banking institutions anxious over EU’s new sustainability reporting rules: The European Investment Bank (EIB) could face a ‘reputational disaster’ this year due to new EU sustainable reporting rules threatening its climate-friendly image, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday, citing a leaked internal email it has seen. The rules — which requires banks to disclose their Green Asset Ratio (GAR) under the EU criteria — would see the EIB’s GAR fall to just 1%, way below its self-claimed climate action ratio of over 50% of its assets. Despite its 2021 move to phase out fossil investments in 2021, the bank has already been under major criticism by campaign groups and current and former employees for lacking transparency and prioritizing its reputation over proper due diligence.

Other financing institutions flagged concerns too: Six development bank heads, including Spain’s Nadia Calviño of the EIB, argued that the GAR would undermine climate financing and unfairly penalizes green investments and burdens SMEs with excessive reporting requirements, according to a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen seen by the FT.

#4- Morgan Stanley + JPMorgan join NZBA exodus: Financial institutions Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase have exited the Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA), Bloomberg reported here and here. This follows other institutions exiting the NZBA recently, including Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo. Morgan Stanley also lowered its climate targets for its corporate lending portfolio in October.

Eco-friendly investing under fire from US’ right: The retreat from eco-conscious finance alliances is linked to “anti-woke” scrutiny from Republicans, which is likely to ramp up during the impending Trump presidency, Financial Times reported last week. Republican lawmakers filed an antitrust lawsuit against investment powerhouse Blackrock for allegedly sabotaging the fossil fuel sector. You can read more about the impact in our deep dive into ESG divestment from 2024.

STILL- Annual issuance of global sustainable bonds hit USD 1 tn in 2024, the second time since the 2007 market inception, Bloomberg reported on Friday. Green bonds — the largest segment of sustainable debt — hit USD 571 bn in sales, edging out 2021’s record of USD 563.5 bn, while sustainability bonds — which fund both green and social initiatives — reached USD 239.7 bn, topping 2021’s USD 235 bn. Sustainability-linked bonds continued their downward trend, falling 38.3%y-o-y to USD 42 bn, their lowest level since 2020.

Demand to persist: Wall Street sustainability leaders expect robust issuance to persist as borrowers continue to tap debt markets for green goals despite concerns over a less ESG-friendly political climate with the incoming Trump administration.

A LOOKAHEAD IN 2025-

#1- Climate-tech equity funding may have plummeted to about USD 43 bn in 2024 from 2022’s USD 127 bn but investors are sitting on some USD 86 bn in unused funds, Bloomberg reported last week. While most climate-tech assets are dubbed as a sell, some assets intersecting with security and defense priorities and AI could be the sector’s 2025 winners, according to a Bloomberg survey of sector analysts and investors.

Bad news for green hydrogen: Decarbonization and sustainable agriculture ventures are considered keepers in terms of investments, despite their equities not looking up as they face saturated markets. Demand on both sectors is set to remain healthy enough to buoy related ventures, especially in emerging markets. On the flipside, green hydrogen and direct air capture equities are considered unadvisable investments given their slow uptake and resiliently high costs projections, analysts told Bloomberg.

ICYMI- GCC countries invested heavily in climate tech in 2024, primarily via sovereign investment funds. The UAE raised its global climate investments by 138% between 2023 and 2024, and accounts for 89% of total regional investment, along with KSA and Qatar. Doha and Downing Street agreed to invest GBP 1 bn to bolster green tech last December.

#2- Rising solar installations and EV sales, along with data centers and AI-driven rise in power demand, are shaping the global fight against climate change in 2025, Bloomberg wrote last week. The news outlet lists 15 possible climate action trends, highlighting the threats to the world’s journey to sustainability, including Donald Trump’s entry to office, rising coal demand to accommodate AI uptake, and extreme temperatures wreaking havoc on the world. It also presents its expectations on ESG investing, carbon offsets, EVs and their effect on oil markets, nuclear energy, green funding, and more.

DANGER ZONE-

“More intense floods” and “prolonged droughts” are threatening Earth’s water cycle, undermining food security for over 30 mn people and impacting bns of people, The Guardian reported on Monday, citing the Global Water Monitor report (pdf). The study finds that 2024 – the hottest year on record – resulted in water disasters that killed at least 8.7k people, displaced 40 mn, and caused at least USD 550 bn in economic damage. Tropical cyclones ran up to USD 520 bn, particularly in the US and Southeast Asia. River floods in the Sahel region and Southern Africa’s droughts together have displaced over 30 mn people. Such extreme events, like extreme droughts and floods, will likely persist in 2025, the report added.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Bahrain will host the Sustainability Forum Middle East from Tuesday, 28 January to Wednesday, 29 January in Manama. Climate experts and decision-makers will convene to discuss a number of issues ranging from decarbonization to supporting SMEs on their path to net zero. Speakers will include GCC government officials and industry leaders from the banking and industrial sectors.

The Egypt Energy Show will kick off from Monday, 17 February and run through to Wednesday, 19 February in Cairo. The event will bring together over 47k attendees and will highlight Egypt’s role in driving green energy transformation in the region under the theme “Building a secure and sustainable energy future.”

Oman Climate Week will begin on Monday, 24 February and run through to Thursday, 27 February in Muscat. The event will facilitate a dialogue on how Oman can align with the Paris Agreement and the goal to reach net zero emissions. Topics of interest include Climate Mitigation, Climate Adaptation, Climate Finance, Carbon Markets, Climate Technologies, Loss & Damage, and Social Inclusion.

The UAE will host Connecting Hydrogen MENA from Monday, 24 February to Wednesday, 29 January in Dubai. The event will be the largest hydrogen event in the region and will bring together over 3k attendees from over 50 countries to discuss collaboration in the sector along with ammonia, manufacturing, and transport.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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