Sustainable cooling is a necessary mitigation strategy, especially for developing countries most affected by extreme heat, according to a report (pdf) by the UN-sponsored Cool Coalition. “We must avoid creating a vicious cycle of meeting cooling demands through solutions that further heat up the planet,” Executive Director of the UN Environment Program Inger Andersen said in September.

Cooling demand will boom: With rising global temperatures alongside economic and population growth, the demand for cooling will boom, with the global cooling market expected to grow by USD 500 bn annually by 2050. Africa will see its cooling market increase sevenfold, while South Asia is set for a fourfold increase. Developing countries at large — which account for two-thirds of cooling-related emissions — are expected to see their cooling market almost double to at least USD 600 bn per year by 2050.

But without policy intervention, emissions would boom too: Without upgrading the current cooling systems, annual emissions from the industry are expected to double by 2050 to account for over 10% of the world’s total greenhouse emissions. Under the current trajectory, the increasing cooling need will be dealt with using fossil fuels rather than sustainable alternatives, delaying the phasing out of fossils.

The sector’s emission issue was recognized in COP28: The United Nations Environment Programme’s Cool Coalition and the UAE developed a pledge that requires cutting cooling-related CO2 emissions by 68% by 2050 and requires big investments to decarbonize the sector. COP28 President Designate Sultan Al Jaber called on nations to join the pledge in July to deliver more sustainable cooling solutions globally ahead of COP28.

Big economic and human costs: On average, there are almost 500k heat-related deaths annually – the death rate for those over 65 alone is expected to quadruple by 2050 from the 2018 average of 300k. Worker productivity and economic output will also see major hits due to excessive heating. Working hours equivalent to up to 136 mn jobs would be lost, and the world GDP would see a USD 2.4 tn loss by 2030. Furthermore, the lack of access to refrigerating systems has far-reaching impacts on health and food security, leading to perishing medications, vaccines, and food products in poorer regions.

REMEMBER- MENA is especially vulnerable: The region’s geographical position, and geopolitical and socioeconomic status make it more susceptible to the effects of heat stress caused by climate change. MENA temperatures have risen an average of 0.46°C per decade in the last 45 years compared to the world’s average of 0.18°C per decade. Annual temperatures in East and North Africa could rise over 2°C by 2100 and possibly reach 6°C in some cases. North Africa saw record-breaking temperatures in July and August, including 49°C in Tunis, Tunisia, and 50.4°C in Agadir, Morocco.

Sustainable cooling can cut tns in costs: The switch to sustainable cooling could save USD 8 tn in power generation investments by 2050 for developing economies in savings from reduced spending on electricity, future power investments, and equipment.

Private financing will be essential: The biggest obstacle to making sustainable cooling more accessible is financing. On the supply side, current market conditions prefer big-sized firms with a higher ability to scale, with fewer funding sources available for small enterprises using sustainable tech. On the demand side, more efficient cooling systems have higher upfront costs, making access to grants and government support essential for consumers to switch to more sustainable cooling.

What can be done? The paper provides a series of recommendations to increase the uptake of sustainable cooling, including implementing business models that assist in reducing affordability constraints for new players, such as the pay-as-you-go programs.

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