Good morning, friends. COP29 ended its first day yesterday with an early victory for the summit in general and for carbon markets in specific after delegated endorsed rules for the carbon credit market after years of deadline. On a less positive note, however, the whole summit’s agenda remains unclear as countries fought over whether to include trade barriers in talks.

COP29 WATCH- WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY

COP29 President is elected: Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources Mukhtar Babayev was formally elected as COP29 yesterday, taking over from COP28 President and UAE Technology Minister Dr Sultan Al Jaber. Before becoming a minister, Babayev spent over 25 years in Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil and gas company Socar.

In sync with his election, the Guardian published an op-ed by Babayev calling for more finances and a bigger role for the private sector. The main points he raised:

  • The USD 100 bn annual target is insufficient for the especially vulnerable developing nations.
  • Public funds are vital but aren’t enough to meet the financial requirements. The private sector’s role would be crucial.
  • Innovative financial tools are needed to hedge against the high risks associated with investing in developing countries, like non-payments and macroeconomic risks.
  • Marshaling massive funds is possible, and the pandemic showed it, pointing to advanced economies raising USD 8 tn over 48 months to support citizens and businesses.

It took a while, but we have a formal agenda: Delegates approved andadopted the agenda for COP29, although China’s last-minute request to include climate-related trade barriers set the summit off to a rocky start as delegates fought over the proposal. The agenda was eventually approved past midnight and with some compromises. Consensus on the agenda is required.

AND– The summit had a major breakthrough with an end to the deadlock on global carbon market rules, reaching consensus on and agreeing to “fully operationalize” Article 6.4 under the Paris Agreement. The regulated system would enable countries to meet emissions targets by trading credits that represent one ton of CO2 reduced or removed, thus fostering faster decarbonization through international cooperation. The agreement reached yesterday “could allow a UN-backed global carbon market, which has been years in the making, to start up as soon as next year,” Reuters reports, citing a negotiator.

Who’s in? Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Switzerland are among a handful of countries that have already struck up bilateral carbon trade agreements in the run-up to COP29. Many more countries — particularly largely developing nations — are selling, notably Morocco and Tunisia, from our region. More could come if a breakthrough materializes in the summit.

The rules passed, but not without some criticism: Critics voiced concerns about the process of reaching the carbon rules agreement, which rested largely on backdoor diplomacy rather than seeing negotiations run their course during the summit, the Guardian reports. This lack of transparency adds to mounting concerns about the credits themselves, including arguments that carbon trading risks shifting the responsibility from wealthier polluters to developing nations. They argue that international trade should complement — not replace — domestic emissions reductions.

ICYMI– Carbon offsets are often under scrutiny: Carbon credits certifier Verra came underfire last year after claims that the company approved mns in “worthless” credits. Some 236 mn carbon credits (32% of the market) failed to meet the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Markets (ICVCM) requirements to qualify for a Core Carbon Principles label in August. The Science-Based Targets initiative — the world’s leading arbitrator on corporate net-zero targets — also called carbon credits largely “ineffective.” In July, over 80 climate nonprofits came together to warn against the use of carbon credits as a tool to offset emissions.

IN OTHER COP NEWS-

COP29 host Azerbaijan under scrutiny for major fossil fuel expansion plans: State-owned company Socar reportedly struck around 25 new oil and gas agreements with potential investments exceeding USD 8 bn since it was announced COP host, a new Global Witness report said. As the summit proceeds, Socar continues securing oil and gas agreements, including, most recently, a USD 468 mn stake in UAE gas projects. European countries — seeking alternatives to Russian gas — have turned to Azerbaijan, which has positioned itself as a strategic alternative, reports the Financial Times.

Yet, the country is set to be the hardest hit by rising temperatures among its peers in Eastern Europe, BBC reports, citing a study by Christian Aid. The country’s GDP may shrink by 8.5%, the study estimated.

COP29 SCHEDULE-

Here’s a handy guide (pdf) for the main thematic days and what to expect and a full rundown of all the panels, workshops, discussions, debates, and keynote speeches.

DAYS TO LOOK FORWARD TO-

12-13 November: World Leaders Climate Action Summit

14 November: Finance, Investment and Trade

15 November: Energy, Peace, Relief and Recovery

19 November: Food, Agriculture and Water

21 November: Nature and Biodiversity, Oceans and Coastal Zones

22 November: Final Negotiations

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Iran is set to increase its renewable energy capacity by 500 MW by the end of the current Iranian calendar year on 20 March 2025, reported Tehran Times, citing the senior official at Iran’s Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Organization Ali Shabnavard.

Big plans: Currently, Iran’s renewable energy capacity stands at around 1.4 GW, Tehran Times writes. The Energy Ministry is reportedly pushing for an ambitious goal of adding 10 GW by the end of 2025 to boost the share of renewables in the country’s power grid. With 600 renewable plants reportedly under construction, Iran anticipates renewable energy to make up over 15% of its electricity generation in the next two years.

REMEMBER- Iran’s renewables production increased by 9%: Iran produced 261 GWh of renewables between 21 June and 21 July, marking a 9% increase from the previous month. This comes on the back of increased wind energy projects which represent 40% of the country’s total renewables capacity. In September, Iran announced it connected a 25 MW solar farm in the Kerman province to the national power grid back in September. The project — set up on 42 hectares of land — comes under Iran’s efforts to enhance renewable energy capacity.

#2- Mazoon breaks ground on Oman copper project: Minerals Development Oman (MDO) subsidiary Mazoon Mining has broken ground on its copper project in Wilayat of Yanqul, according to a company statement. The contracting tender was first announced last week with a 21 November deadline.

About the plant: The project — Oman’s largest integrated copper concentrate project — will span 20 sq km and contains estimated copper ore reserves of 22.9 mn tons. It will also feature a processing plant with 2.5 mn tons of annual processing capacity. Once operational in 1Q 2027, the plant will produce 115k tons of copper concentrate per year at a grade of 21.5%.

MDO has been bullish on copper: The company is focusing on the country’s copper reserves in the states of Sohar and Liwa — both are home to around 2.78 mn tons of reserves — with the goal of raising copper ore’s annual production to 800k tons. This includes the modernization of already existing mines in the area and new explorations in its concession area spanning 23.6k sq km. MDO also began production in a new extraction site in Sohar earlier in 2024, Zawya reported.

#3- EGA extends BMW low-carbon supply agreement: Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) has extended its CelestiAL-R supply agreement with the BMW Group for the upcoming years, according to a statement. CelestiAL-R — a low-carbon blend of aluminum made with solar power and recycled metal — is used by BMW to manufacture aluminum components for its vehicles. The BMW Group, which has been sourcing aluminum from EGA since 2013, was the first to purchase CelestiAL-R aluminum in 2021.

EGA has more in the works: The Mubadala-backed company is targeting further acquisitions in East Asia, Europe, the US, and Mexico after completing two transactions this year — an 80% stake in US-based aluminum recycling company Spectro Alloys and a 100% stake in Germany’s Leichtmetall Aluminum Giesserei. The Middle East’s largest aluminum producer aims to boost its production capacity by purchasing metal-recycling assets to meet the rising demand for recycled metal products in the US and Europe. EGA also adopted a digital greenhouse gas emissions tracking system to improve transparency and thus push its decarbonization efforts forward.

Saudi Arabia launched the Young Researchers Award at the UNCCD COP16 Science Pavilion, aiming to drive research on land degradation, desertification, and drought, according to a press release (pdf). With a prize pool of USD 70k, the initiative will reward seven early-career researchers (up to 35 years of age) across key areas like land restoration, sustainable agri-food systems, and climate resilience.

Submissions are open until Friday, 22 November at the UNCCD website. Awardwinners will be announced in a special ceremony as part of the event in Riyadh. They will receive USD 10k each — plus travel and accommodation — and mentorship from leading environmental experts.

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