Extreme heat will bring major losses to workers health + economic productivity: With the world once again on track for its hottest year on record, public health experts are raising alarms about the dangers of extreme heat — especially for laborers, a recent deep-dive by Reuters explained. A 1°C rise in temperature could result in a 2% decline in overall economic activity on the back of a predicted decrease in worker productivity, the World Bank (WB) warned. More frequent and extreme heat waves — including in the Middle East where some areas are experiencing record temperatures of almost 50°C months ahead of the usual peak — are also threatening the shipping, logistics, and agricultural sectors, which will further shrink the economy.

What’s at risk? Heat-related deaths have risen by 70% among those over 65 in the last two decades with around 37% of these deaths attributed to human-induced climate change, according to the World Health Organization. Heat-related illnesses — such as heat exhaustion and heat strokes — pose significant risks, especially for those with pre-existing health conditions. The WHO projects an additional 250k deaths yearly by the 2030s due to climate-related impacts on diseases and coastal flooding.

How does the extreme heat affect labor? The brunt of the impact falls on outdoor workers in industries like construction, agriculture, and transportation, the WB said. Heat stress led to a 5% decline in global working hours in 2019, translating to a loss of 152 mn full-time jobs as well as decreased wages for workers. The heat also increases workplace injuries, with a 6% rise in non-heat-related incidents on days where temperatures surpass 37.7 °C, affecting lower-income workers the most, according to the Bank.

The trend is expected to continue: By 2030, it’s projected that over 2% of total working hours globally will be lost due to heat stress, equating to a productivity loss of 80 mn full-time jobs, a study by the International Labour Organization (ILO) found. This loss is particularly severe in Southern Asia and Western Africa, where productivity loss may reach 5%. In India, a 1°C temperature increase could diminish plant output by 3.5%, while in the US, car manufacturing facilities could see an 8% drop in output during weeks with multiple days over 32.2°C, the WB added.

The financial impact will be major: The financial loss due to heat stress is expected to reach USD 2.4 tn by 2030, even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C above pre-industrial level. India could lose over 101 bn labor hours annually due to the rising heat. Ins. company Lloyd's estimates a USD 5 tn loss over five years due to extreme weather-induced food and water shortages.

And it’s not just people: Shipping and logistics industries face significant challenges due to the rising temperatures, with reduced vessel transits in the Panama Canal due to drought, according to the Allianz Commercial report. Infrastructure is also affected as heat compromises the integrity of power lines, concrete, and transport systems. The insurance sector is also feeling the heat, with outdated risk models struggling to keep up with the changing climate landscape.

Heat waves are also threatening the agriculture sector: The extreme heat disrupts agricultural yields, with potential reductions in wheat, rice, and maize, and affects livestock and fisheries, leading to increased mortality and lower production, according to the International Institute for Sustainable Development. The effects extend to food storage and transport, resulting in significant losses and waste. This causes the poorest populations to face “heatflation,” where rising food costs push mns into extreme poverty.

Things could get worse as climate change exacerbates heat waves: Cyclical naturally occurring weather phenomena like El Niño and La Niña interact with climate change making weather events more severe with more intense heat waves, droughts, wildfires, downpours, and snowstorms, according to the Royal Society. Recent research has shown that its impacts are likely to hit harder and more frequently as the planet continues to heat up and global surface temperatures will rise by about 0.1 °C during the years the phenomenon occurs, with some scientists warning global average temperatures could tip off the 1.5 °C limit.

What can be done? Governments play a key role by setting regulations that encourage businesses to change their practices, ILO adds. However, employer and worker organizations are equally important to implement the needed changes including enforcing safety standards, improving heatwave warning systems, and expanding social safety nets. International guidelines can help governments design effective national policies to protect workers from heat stress.

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