Draft COP28 text falls short of calling for fossil fuel phaseout

COP28 draft text skips out on a full fossil fuel phaseout: The highly anticipated draft of the COP28 Global Stocktake delivered a range of global targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions worldwide, but it fell short of including the “phaseout” or “phase down” of fossil fuels, The Guardian reports. Rather than deliver the awaited goal to phase out of fossil fuels, the draft text stated that fossil fuel production and consumption is to be reduced by 2050 in line with “scientific advice,” avoiding any mention of the contentious “phaseout” language despite being called for by over 80 countries.

What’s on the table, then? The Global Stocktake draft, released by the UN climate body, called for a number of actions that countries “could” take to rapidly reduce global emissions, including:

• Tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling the rate of achieving energy efficiency by 2030.
• Accelerating the phasing down of unabated coal and limiting unabated coal production.
• Accelerating zero and low emissions technologies and removal technologies such as carbon capture and utilization and storage.
• Reducing consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by, before, or around 2050.
• Accelerating and substantially reducing global non-CO2 emissions, especially methane, by 2030.
• Accelerating emissions reductions from road transport through a range of pathways, including development of infrastructure and deployment of zero and low emission vehicles.

The draft is a mixed bag of compromises: While the draft — if adopted without amendments — would go down in history as the first official text calling for a global reduction of fossil fuels, negotiators noted there is a lack of obligatory language given that commitments in the draft text are preceded by the phrase: “take actions that could include…”, Time reported. “This text doesn’t send the clear signals that are needed to avert the climate crisis. The suggested set of actions is merely a pick-your-own menu,” Director of World Resources Institute ’s International Climate Initiative David Waskow said.

Also weak on the finance front: In addition to being slammed for its “weak” language on oil and gas, the draft also did not include “any language that points to the obligation of developed countries to provide finance for adaptation or mitigation,” Director of policy and campaigns at ActionAid US Brandon Wu said. “We also don’t see clarity on finance for adaptation. They say doubling adaptations, but doubling what? Where is the finance going to come from, will it be additional?” a member of the Chad delegation questioned.

Climate experts blame fossil fuel lobbyists for the draft text’s shortfalls: The text has been criticized for pandering to the fossil fuel industry as it contains “a host of false solutions that will benefit the oil, gas and coal industries instead of providing a safe, fair and equitable future for all of us,” head of the Greenpeace delegation Kaisa Kosonen said. The accusation that the fossil fuel industry “has its fingerprints all over” the decision to leave out the phaseout article comes on account of the strong presence of fossil fuel lobbyists in the summit, according to Global Witness CEO Mike Davis, who argued that “when climate talks are flooded by thousands of fossil fuel lobbyists, it’s no surprise that those talks flop.”

Others point fingers at fossil fuel firms + petrostates: The draft was lambasted for being “riddled with the evidence of world leaders succumbing to the perverse influence of the fossil fuel industry and petrostates,” the Union of Concerned Scientists said in a statement, urging world leaders to act. Saudi Arabia had been leading the opposition against a phaseout of fossil fuels, right until the release of the final draft, warranting criticism that it is, along with its allies “holding the talks hostage,” former Irish president Mary Robinson had said prior to the release of the draft text.

However, some beg to differ: Despite all the vehement criticism, the text “recognises that the reality is that you can’t phase out fossil fuels before you have a massive investment in renewable energy which needs huge finance flows,” climate economist and adviser to Barbados prime minister Mia Mottley, Avinash Persaud told The Guardian. The draft is acceptable as long as it would deliver a promise to ramp up investments in renewable energy in developing countries, she reasoned, saying that it would be “the only pathway to a phase out of fossil fuels.”

It's unclear what’s next: Governments and negotiators are expected to continue intensive talks over the draft text until the relevant parties agree to sign the final pledge. It is unclear whether the presidency will be able to achieve this on the last day of the conference, raising the likelihood for talks to continue past the summit’s scheduled end date.

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