Good morning, nice people. We’re only 24 hours away from the kick off to COP28, and the heat is on for big oil in the run up to the climate summit. We have an oil and gas heavy issue on deck as we countdown to the kickoff. Shall we?

OUR TOP CLIMATE STORY- Oman’s Public Authority for Special Economic Zones and FreeZones and Vulcan Green Steel have broken ground on the country’s first green steel plant in the Duqm Special Economic Zone.

^^ We have the details on this story and more in the news well, below.

THE BIG CLIMATE STORY OUTSIDE THE REGION- Virgin Atlantic operates world’s first 100% SAF-powered transatlantic flight: British airline Virgin Atlantic flew the world’s first 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)-powered long haul flight from Heathrow airport in London to JFK airport in New York yesterday. The Boeing 787 — powered by Rolls-Royce 1k Trent engines — carried no passengers on its transatlantic voyage aside from Virgin bn’aire founder Richard Branson, Virgin Atlantic CEO Shai Weiss, and Britain’s transport minister Mark Harper. The airline sourced the SAFs for the demonstration flight from spent cooking oils and waste animal fat mixed with a small amount of synthetic aromatic kerosene made from waste corn.

The demonstration flight garnered some criticism: “The two potential sources of truly sustainable aviation fuel are very limited in scale,” Greenpeace chief scientist Doug Parr said. “The waste used as feedstock for biokerosene on this flight is not available in large enough quantities to have a large impact on aviation emissions, and CO2 from direct air capture and green hydrogen from electrolysis – both used to make e-kerosene – are very expensive to produce. The only effective way to address aviation emissions in the short term is to address demand, and any suggestion to the contrary is simply pie in the sky.”

The story made headlines in the international press:Reuters | Financial Times | BBC | CNNCNBC | Deutsche Welle | France 24 | Euronews.

COUNTDOWN TO COP28: Oil states should be subject to a USD 25 bn levy on revenues to help pay for climate damage, former UK prime minister Gordon Brown told The Guardian. Seventy international figures — including 25 former prime ministers or presidents — signed a letter to the COP President-Designate Sultan Al Jaber calling for the levy, highlighting the fact that oil revenues jumped from USD 1.5 tn pre-covid to a record USD 4 tn in 2022. This amounts to 20x the entire global aid budget, over 30x the budgets of all multilateral development banks combined, and 40x the USD 100 bn a year promised in 2009 for poor countries to help cut their greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of the climate crisis.

A drop in the bucket: The levy would amount to about 3% of the oil and gas revenues of the world’s biggest petrostates, and the letter highlighted that the loss and damage fund shouldn’t be the only beneficiary, as other programs should also be targeted.

IN OTHER OIL NEWS-The IEA is coming in guns blazing: The oil and gas industry needs to let go of the “illusion” that carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a viable alternative to clean energy, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report. In efforts to meet goals for net-zero emissions by 2050, global gas and oil companies have “excessive expectations and reliance” on CCS.

CCS reliance is not realistic: Limiting the temperature rise to 1.5° C would require an “inconceivable” 32 bn tons of carbon to be captured by 2050 if oil and natural gas consumption evolves as projected under today’s policy settings, including 23 bn tons via direct air capture. This would require 26k TW hours of electricity generation in 2050, which is more than the global electricity demand in 2022, and an annual investment exceeding USD 3.5 tn until 2050.

Companies continue to invest in fossil fuels: The IEA said that fossil fuel companies should be investing half as much as they currently are in oil and gas in order to limit rising temperatures and avoid climate disasters. Oil and gas producers account for just 1% of clean energy investment globally, the report said.

Looking ahead: As the energy sector rapidly evolves, we could see a 45% decline in demand for oil and gas by 2050 if governments deliver on their national energy and climate pledges. Achieving the 1.5 °C warming goal would mean a 75% drop in oil and gas use by mid-century, the IEA said.

OPEC had strong words in response: OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais accused the IEA of vilifying the industry by saying it has to choose between shifting to clean energy or worsening the climate crisis, Reuters reports. OPEC, de facto led by top oil exporter Saudi Arabia, also described the IEA’s prediction that world fossil fuel demand would peak by 2030 as “dangerous,” saying that this jeopardizes energy security since it leads to calls to stop new investments in oil and gas.

MEANWHILE- Saudi Arabia is driving a global investment plan to create demand for its oil and gas in developing countries, The Guardian reports. Saudi’s oil demand sustainability program aims to “sustain and develop the demand for hydrocarbons as a competitive source of energy” in developing countries. “We don’t believe it’s possible that [developing countries] can skip this [fossil fuel] phase,” said an unnamed official when announcing the program. Saudi signed five MoUs with African countries earlier this month to implement the program. This also comes after a leaked document revealed that the UAE planned to use its role as host of the COP28 summit to discuss fossil fuel agreements with 15 nations.

WATCH THIS SPACE #1- Jordan needs to implement regulations on renewables: Jordan needs to implement new legislation to regulate its renewable energy sector and promote future projects,Energy Minister Saleh Kharabsheh told Addustour. Speaking at a meeting of the Energy Partnership Council, Kharabsheh emphasized the need to adapt to the swift global advancements in renewable energy. Kharabsheh said the regulations would spur further growth in renewables amid a rise in the country’s energy bill.

Swift action in the face of incoming projects: Jordan officially completed its green hydrogen and ammonia roadmap last June after months of preparation and recently signed an agreement with Irish-based renewables developer Amarenco and Zurich-based green hydrogen company H2 Global Energy for the development of a EUR 9 bn green ammonia generation project in the kingdom. Five pre-agreed MoUs are set to be formally signed at COP28 later this month, paving the way for companies to conduct one-year preliminary feasibility studies for new green hydrogen projects in the country.

WATCH THIS SPACE #2-Rockefeller Foundation pledges net zero endowment: The Rockefeller Foundation intends to make its USD 6 bn endowment net zero emissions by 2050, Rockefeller president Rajiv Shah told Bloomberg. Rockefeller is the largest private foundation with such a target in the US, and it already committed to divest from fossil fuels three years ago. The next step is pushing for greater decarbonization through direct investments, with plans to invest in companies that offer climate change solutions, Shah added.

DANGER ZONE #1-TheUS is set to break records on oil and gas production this year: The US is set to extract more oil and gas this year than ever before despite UN climate goals to shift away from fossil fuels, The Guardian reports. The country’s crude oil production is projected to hit 12.9 mn barrels this year, more than twice the amount from 10 years ago. Gas production will also hit record levels, largely due to new export terminals along the Gulf of Mexico coast, leading to a doubling of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports within the next four years.

2050 climate goals seem far out of reach: The US government predicts oil and gas activity to stay alarmingly high up until 2050, a date at which scientists say a potential climate catastrophe will occur if emissions are not eliminated. The US will account for a third of global oil and gas expansion during this period, according to a Climate Transparency report.

Biden’s fossil fuel failputs US in the hot seat: US President Joe Biden has done little to steer away from fossil fuels, although his Inflation Reduction Act prompted record investment in renewable energy and increased EV sales. “Team Biden is green lighting one fossil project after another. The US is devoid of any moral authority to phasing out fossil fuels,” Senator Jeff Merkley told The Guardian.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UAE will host the Conference of the Parties (COP28) from Thursday, 30 November through to Tuesday, 12 December in Dubai. COP28 will be divided into Blue and Green zones with the former reserved for heads of states, government delegations, and UN bodies. The green zone — which will be open to the public — will serve as a central hub where developers, industry leaders, NGOs, and climate activists come together to explore pathways to accelerate the transition to clean energy. The zone will host over 300 talks tackling the climate crisis and showcase climate-focused interactive exhibits.

Oman will host its Green Hydrogen Summit from Tuesday 12, December through to Thursday, 14 December in Muscat. The two-day event will bring together green fuels developers, renewables companies, and policy makers in a bid to chart a course toward carbon-neutrality by 2050. Aside from the conference, the summit will also include masterclasses delving into the specifics of the green hydrogen value chain, from green electricity production to H2 production, distribution and storage. You can register for the event here.

Saudi Arabia will host theFuture Minerals Forum from Tuesday, 9 January through to Thursday, 11 January in Riyadh. The event will bring nations and private sectors together to enable the creation of resilient mineral value chains in the resource rich regions of Africa, Western Asia, and Central Asia. The forum will hold a ministerial roundtable with over 60 countries being represented., and delegates will discuss global critical mineral strategies as well as an international exhibition with over 150 exhibitors and industry sponsors.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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