Ringing the alarm bell for Africa: A worsening climate change continues to be an increasing threat for Africa, causing harm to food security, ecosystems, and economies in a continent that is responsible for only a fraction of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, according to a report (pdf) by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released during the Africa Climate Summit in Kenya. Such climate-induced threats could trigger displacement and migration as well as aggravate conflicts in the continent over diminishing resources.

By the numbers: More than 110 mn people in Africa were directly impacted by weather, climate and weather-related events in 2022, causing over USD 8.5 bn in economic damages, according to the report. Drought was the main cause of fatalities, while flooding was the primary reason for economic damages. The report said that the real toll of those impacted could even be higher due to underreporting.

A big loss in terms of agriculture: Recent decades of extreme weather and climate events have taken a toll on Africa’s agriculture sector, pushing agricultural productivity growth down by 34% since 1961. This plunge is the highest globally in comparison with other regions, with extreme conditions also impacting grain production — aggregate cereal production in North Africa down 14% y-o-y to 33 mn tons in 2022. However, good rains in West Africa helped bring aggregate cereal production up 7% y-o-y to reach 76.4 mn tons last year. Pastureland and cropland areas in East Africa were hit by continuous drought-stressed conditions, with the number of acute food insecure people up 90% y-o-y to 4.4 mn during the last three months of 2022.

And heavy displacement: The Horn of Africa was hit by its worst drought in 40 years last year, with Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia being the most impacted. Almost 1.2 mn people were displaced internally in Somalia due to the extreme drought and over 60k people fled the combined impact of drought and conflict, crossing into Ethiopia and Kenya during the same year. Some 512k were also displaced internally in Ethiopia due to drought. Such displacements led to a funding gap and a spike in food prices, bringing in the number of refugees impacted by food assistance cuts due to the crisis to over 3.5 mn. The crisis in the continent was worsened by some high-impact weather events that left little room for recovery throughout the year. These included a series of cyclones that hit Southern Africa, leaving hundreds of thousands impacted, including pre-existing refugees and people who were internally displaced.

A hefty cost for loss and damage: The level of loss and damage and the costs incurred in Africa will depend on several factors, including the level of ambition of global mitigation actions and adaptation investment levels locally, according to the report. It estimated “residual damages” equivalent to 3% of the continent’s projected GDP could be incurred annually by 2080 in a 4 C warming world with strong regional adaptation. In the case of both low and high warming scenarios, loss and damage costs in Africa are projected to range between USD 290 bn and USD 440 bn from 2020 to 2030.

NDCs are a positive step, however: A total of 53 parties from Africa have submitted their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) as of February this year, with over 90% submitting an updated NDC. Implementing such NDCs will need up to USD 2.8 tn between 2020 and 2030, the report said, highlighting the African Development Bank’s (AfDB) doubling of climate finance to USD 25 bn by 2025. Although most of the submitted NDCs present a quantification of the estimated adaptation costs, the issue of loss and damage remains of little significance in the documents due to what the report described as a “lack of standard methodologies for assessing climate-related risks.” Therefore, it suggested that the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA)/African Climate Policy Centre (ACPC) modeling-based assessments on loss and damage be used to bring in practical outcomes related to links between mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage costs at the national level.

Some innovative financing pathways could be key: Some innovative financing mechanisms could help push the implementation of the NDCs, the report said. These include green and blue bonds and loans, sustainability or sustainability-linked bonds and loans, debt-for-climate swaps, and more feasible and better-priced carbon markets.

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